中国的崛起与全球秩序：对加拿大等中等强国的影响

https://medium.com/centre-for-international-and-defence-policy/chinas-rise-and-the-global-order-implications-for-middle-powers-like-canada-92b341c2c14c ?国际与国防政策中心·
联系报告 2024 年 2 月 16 日

作者：Anjana Balachandran，渥太华大学

在现代历史上，很少有事件能像中国的迅速崛起那样深刻地重塑全球格局。 从经济实力到不断扩大的军事影响力，中国的崛起迫使各国重新调整其外交政策和战略。 在这个不断发展的世界秩序中，像加拿大这样的中等强国面临着挑战和机遇。 加拿大如何适应中国崛起为全球大国的影响，并在新的地缘政治现实中规划前进道路？

中国崛起的故事深深植根于1978年后的发展轨迹。 在邓小平的领导下，中国从一个以农业为主的社会转变为一个经济大国。 这一变化是在西方列强建立的二战后国际秩序背景下发生的。 二战后的秩序也是由苏联塑造的，导致世界因冷战竞争而分裂，超级大国及其盟友建立了不同的势力范围和规范。 这一以既定规范和机构为特征的秩序现在发现自己正处于中国影响力日益增长的十字路口。

这个时代引入了重要的制度和框架，例如《联合国宪章》的主权、货币稳定的布雷顿森林体系； 关税及贸易总协定（关贸总协定）是世界贸易组织（世贸组织）的前身，所有这些都促进自由经济秩序以及人权和民主价值观。 随着中国的崛起，它挑战了西方领导的霸权和两极紧张局势的残余，凸显了国际秩序的复杂性和全球权力转移的微妙动态。 这一进展挑战了既定的规范和机构，考验了二战后建立的全球框架的弹性，并反映了中国崛起对西方影响力遗产和冷战时代分歧残余的深刻影响。

从历史上看，植根于皮埃尔·特鲁多时代的加中关系经历了相当多的波动，在相互合作的时期和明显紧张的时期之间摇摆。 多年来，这种多方面的关系不断扩大，不仅包括贸易，还包括文化、学术和体育交流。 尽管有这种扩张，但两国关系也遇到了一些挑战。 值得注意的是，在斯蒂芬·哈珀总理任期内，两国关系经历了一定程度的动荡，其特点是在人权、外国投资和安全问题等问题上对中国采取了更加谨慎、有时甚至是批评的立场。 这一时期出现了一些紧张时刻，例如高层访问推迟和公众批评凸显了双边接触的复杂性。

无可否认，加拿大和中国之间的经济互动至关重要，中国的快速增长使其成为加拿大重要的贸易伙伴。 这种经济纽带是通过《外国投资促进和保护协定》（FIPA）等协议正式确立的，旨在加强双边投资流动。 然而，这种关系的经济层面并非没有挑战。 例如，加拿大在 2020 年对中国的出口明显下降，这是由于全球大流行的破坏和政治紧张局势升级的共同作用。 这些因素导致了所谓的“经济动荡”，此前稳定的贸易和投资增长突然面临重大阻力，反映出国际政治经济中更广泛的不确定性以及可能影响经济关系的具体双边摩擦。

中国对既定秩序的挑战是多方面的。 中国在全球供应链中的关键作用及其发起的替代性多边倡议。 在经济上，随着中国在全球供应链中的关键作用以及“一带一路”等替代性多边倡议的启动，扩大了中国的全球足迹。 在政治上，中国对联合国和地区论坛的贡献表明了其对多极世界的渴望。 在军事上，南海及其他地区的活动凸显了其不断扩张的野心。 此外，中国的文化和软实力举措旨在投射其价值观和叙事，提供西方意识形态的替代方案。

在数据和信息发挥作用的 21 世纪数字宇宙中

作为强国，网络安全已成为国际关系的一个重要方面。 从传统战争到网络战争的转变从根本上改变了“攻击”的定义。 国家支持的网络攻击不断升级，导致数字基础设施和商业系统面临严重的持续威胁。 尽管如此，公众对国家行为者网络行动的认识仍然有限。

例如，2010 年针对伊朗核计划的 Stuxnet 攻击就体现了国际权力结构中权力动态的转变。 从那时起，网络战格局迅速发展，速度超过了监管反应。 “五眼联盟”等国家和情报联盟越来越多地将网络安全专家纳入其防御机制。 北约承认网络安全在国际冲突中的关键作用，特别是其在 2014 年宣布严重的网络攻击可能触发第 5 条[1]，这反映出国家主导的网络行动越来越依赖数字专业知识。 然而，在这个快速变化的环境中，国际机构如何对网络间谍活动进行分类和解决仍然存在很大的不确定性。

安全担忧在加中关系中日益突出，南海争端集中体现了中国崛起带来的地缘政治挑战。 随着中国主张领土主张并扩大军事存在，加拿大面临着复杂的外交格局，一边主张和平解决，一边应对中国的侵略立场。

对于传统上与西方列强结盟的加拿大来说，这些事态发展提出了一个难题。 鉴于中国影响力日益增强，平衡经济机遇与安全关切是一项微妙的外交任务。 加拿大对北约等国际联盟的依赖在维持力量平衡和维护基于规则的全球秩序方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

加中关系的一个关键方面是人权问题造成的道德困境，特别是在香港和新疆等地区。 这些问题使加拿大必须权衡其经济利益与对人权的承诺，这表明各国在与中国等超级大国打交道时面临着更广泛的挑战。 2019 年香港抗议活动和据报道的新疆严重侵犯人权行为（包括大规模拘留维吾尔族穆斯林）之后的镇压给加拿大带来了重大挑战。 这些情况反映出，在坚持基本人权原则的同时与中国保持战略关系面临着更广泛的困难，加拿大的外交政策需要采取细致入微和原则性的方法，以有效解决这些有争议的问题。

中国在全球秩序中占据主导地位的时代不是转瞬即逝的，而是持久的现实。 对于加拿大这样的国家来说，这需要采取战略性的、细致入微的方法。 通过了解挑战、抓住机遇并坚守价值观，加拿大可以维护自身利益，并在塑造全球叙事方面发挥建设性作用。 展望未来，加中关系的轨迹仍存在不确定性。 加拿大必须在其经济利益和安全关切与其对人权的承诺以及中国全球崛起带来的挑战之间取得战略平衡。 这涉及经济伙伴关系多元化、加强传统联盟以及参与多边外交。

加中关系象征着现代国际关系的挑战和机遇。 随着全球格局不断变化，加拿大适应、接触和保持与中国平衡的能力对于塑造其国际地位至关重要。 这种具有历史深度和当代复杂性的关系无疑将继续成为加拿大外交政策和全球战略的关键因素。

China's Rise and the Global Order: Implications for Middle Powers Like Canada

By: Anjana Balachandran, University of Ottawa

In modern history, few events have reshaped the global landscape as profoundly as China’s meteoric rise. From its economic prowess to its expanding military footprint, China’s ascent has compelled nations to recalibrate their foreign policies and strategies. Middle powers like Canada face challenges and opportunities in this evolving world order. How can Canada adapt to the implications of China’s emergence as a global power and chart a path forward in this new geopolitical reality?

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing. PMO photograph by Adam Scotti.

The story of China’s rise is deeply rooted in its post-1978 trajectory. Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China transformed from a predominantly agrarian society to an economic giant. This change occurred against the backdrop of a post-WWII international order established by Western powers. The post-WWII order, also shaped significantly by the Soviet Union, led to a world bifurcated by Cold War rivalries, establishing distinct spheres of influence and norms by both superpowers and their allies. This order, characterized by established norms and institutions, now finds itself at a crossroads with China’s growing influence.

This era introduced critical institutions and frameworks, such as the United Nations Charter’s sovereignty, the Bretton Woods system for monetary stability; and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a precursor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), all promoting a liberal economic order and the values of human rights and democracy. As China ascends, it challenges both the Western-led hegemony and the bipolar tensions remnants, underscoring the international order’s complexity and the nuanced dynamics of global power shifts. This progression challenges established norms and institutions, testing the resilience of the global framework established in the aftermath of WWII and reflecting the profound implications of China’s rise on both the legacy of Western influence and the remnants of Cold War-era divisions.

Historically, Canada-China relations, rooted in the era of Pierre Trudeau, have seen their fair share of fluctuations, swinging between periods of mutual cooperation and times of palpable tension. This multifaceted relationship has broadened over the years to encompass not just trade but also cultural, academic, and sports exchanges. Despite this expansion, the relationship has encountered its share of challenges. Notably, during the tenure of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, relations experienced a degree of turbulence, characterized by a more cautious and sometimes critical stance towards China on issues ranging from human rights to foreign investment and security concerns. This period saw moments of strain, such as delayed high-level visits and public criticisms that underscored the complexities of bilateral engagement.

Economic interactions between Canada and China have undeniably been pivotal, with China’s rapid growth positioning it as an essential trading partner for Canada. This economic bond was formalized through agreements like the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA), aimed at enhancing bilateral investment flows. However, the economic dimension of this relationship has not been without its challenges. For instance, Canada experienced a noticeable decline in its exports to China in 2020, a setback attributed to a combination of the global pandemic’s disruptions and escalating political tensions. These factors contributed to what can be described as ‘economic turbulence’, where the previously steady growth in trade and investment faced sudden and significant headwinds, reflecting the broader uncertainties in the international political economy and the specific bilateral frictions that can impact economic ties.

China’s challenge to the established order is multifaceted. with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives. Economically, with China’s pivotal role in global supply chains and its initiation of alternative multilateral initiatives like the Belt and Road have expanded China’s global footprint. Politically, China’s contributions to the United Nations and regional forums signal its aspirations for a multipolar world. Militarily, activities in the South China Sea and beyond highlight its expanding ambitions. Furthermore, China’s cultural and soft power initiatives aim to project its values and narratives, presenting an alternative to Western ideologies.

In the 21st century’s digital universe, where data and information work as powerhouses, cybersecurity has emerged as a critical aspect of international relations. The shift from traditional to cyber warfare has fundamentally changed the definition of ‘attack’. State-sponsored cyber-attacks have escalated, leading to advanced persistent threats to digital infrastructure and commerce systems. Despite this, public awareness of state actors’ cyber operations remains limited.

The 2010 Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear program, for example, exemplifies the shift in power dynamics within the international power structure. Since then, the cyber warfare landscape has rapidly evolved, outpacing regulatory responses. Nations and intelligence alliances like Five Eyes have increasingly incorporated cybersecurity experts into their defence mechanisms. NATO’s acknowledgment of cybersecurity’s pivotal role in international conflicts, notably its declaration in 2014 that severe cyberattacks could trigger Article 5[1], reflects the increasing reliance on digital expertise in state-led cyber operations. However, there remains high uncertainty in how international bodies categorize and address cyber espionage in this rapidly changing landscape.

Security concerns have become prominent in the Canada-China relationship, with the South China Sea dispute epitomizing the geopolitical challenges posed by China’s ascent. As China asserts its territorial claims and expands its military presence, Canada faces a complex diplomatic landscape, advocating for peaceful resolutions while navigating China’s aggressive stance.

For Canada, a nation traditionally aligned with Western powers, these developments present a conundrum. Balancing economic opportunities with security concerns in light of China’s growing influence is a delicate diplomatic task. Canada’s reliance on international alliances, such as NATO, plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of power and upholding a rules-based global order.

A critical aspect of Canada-China relations is the ethical dilemma posed by human rights concerns, particularly in regions like Hong Kong and Xinjiang. These issues place Canada in a position where it must weigh its economic interests against its commitment to human rights, indicative of the broader challenges nations face when engaging with superpowers like China. The crackdown following the 2019 Hong Kong protests and the severe human rights abuses reported in Xinjiang, including mass detentions of Uighur Muslims, present significant challenges for Canada. These situations reflect the broader difficulty of maintaining strategic relations with China while adhering to fundamental human rights principles, necessitating a nuanced and principled approach in Canada’s foreign policy to navigate these contentious issues effectively.

The era of China’s dominance in the global order is not a fleeting moment but a lasting reality. For nations like Canada, this necessitates a strategic, nuanced approach. By understanding the challenges, seizing opportunities, and staying true to its values, Canada can safeguard its interests and play a constructive role in shaping the global narrative. Looking towards the future, the trajectory of Canada-China relations remains uncertain. Canada must strategically balance its economic interests and security concerns with its commitment to human rights and the challenges posed by China’s global ascent. This involves diversifying economic partnerships, strengthening traditional alliances, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy.

The Canada-China relationship is emblematic of the challenges and opportunities that characterize modern international relations. As the global landscape continues to shift, Canada’s ability to adapt, engage, and maintain a balanced approach with China will be crucial in shaping its international standing. This relationship, with its historical depth and contemporary complexities, will undoubtedly continue to be a key factor in Canada’s foreign policy and global strategy.