特朗普正面临与中国的失败关税战

彭博原创

2024年11月8日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB9jBpX1yx8

美国和中国陷入了争夺科技霸权的战斗，这对唐纳德·特朗普来说将是一个重大挑战。多年的关税、出口管制和金融制裁并没有减缓习近平对主导地位的追求。中国已成为电动汽车和太阳能等行业的世界领先者，并在其他行业迎头赶上。但即使美国尚未成功绊倒中国，也没有迹象表明它会停止尝试。

@wingmay8571 2天前
我是一名工程师，自1991年以来一直在美国一家高科技航空技术公司工作。我的大多数同事都是亚洲人。他们都是受过高等教育的专业人士。我们不得不从中国购买大量设备，因为美国没有我们需要的设备。当有人购买美国国旗时，它是中国制造的。

@wingmay8571 2天前
I am an engineer and working for a high tech aviation technology company in America since 1991. Most of my co-workers are Asian. They are highly educated professionals. We have to buy a lot of equipment from China because America doesn't have the equipment we need. When someone buys an American flag, it is made in China.

@Rainer86 1天前（修改过）
我永远无法理解对全球人力资源分配和再利用的漠视。作为客户，我们从中国和其他国家提供的物美价廉的商品中受益。另一方面，这些国家的人民也受益匪浅，因为数百万人已经摆脱了贫困。如果我们最终要为这些产品支付更高的价格，那么在美国生产衣服、厨房用具和玩具有什么好处呢？相反，我们应该专注于在美国开发先进技术。政客们经常用爱国主义来掩饰自己的议程。事实上，这些心胸狭隘的政客正在阻碍人类的进步。

@Rainer86 1天前（修改过）
I can never understand the disregard for the global distribution and reutilization of human resources. As customers, we benefit from China and other countries that provide affordable, high-quality goods. On the other hand, people in those countries also benefit, as millions have been lifted out of poverty. What’s the benefit of making clothes, kitchen appliances, and toys in America when we end up paying higher prices for them? Instead, we should focus on developing advanced technology in the U.S. Politicians often use patriotism as a disguise for their own agendas. Indeed, these narrow-minded politicians are hindering the progress of humankind.

@jhouck1969 1天前
对所有进口商品征收200%的关税将使所有商品的价格上涨三倍，包括依赖从世界各地进口材料的国内产品。此外，还要围捕1100万移民，让他们脱离劳动力队伍，还要花钱为他们提供住房和食物，同时还要努力将他们驱逐出境。如果你认为过去几年的通货膨胀很糟糕，那就等着看所有这些出色的政策生效吧……

@jhouck1969 1天前
A 200% tariff on all imports will make the cost of everything three times more expensive, including domestic products that rely on materials imported from around the world. Add to that the idea of rounding up 11 million immigrants, taking them out of the workforce and costing money to house and feed them while working to deport them. If you thought inflation was bad the past few years, wait until all these brilliant policies take effect...

@jesselee3391 4天前（修改过）
看来美国没有通过经济学入门课程。关税降低了整个经济的效率。我们缺少提供重要服务的工人——从医疗保健到供不应求的房屋建设。我们最不需要的就是将这些工人重新部署到装配线上，让产品变得更贵！当然，保护微芯片和稀土等关键行业。然而，让昂贵的美国工人制造运动鞋和儿童玩具是没有意义的。还是不相信？好吧，看看孤立主义对英国的影响……
@jesselee3391 4天前（修改过）
It appears the United States failed Economics 101.  Tariffs make the economy as a whole less efficient.   We are short on workers to deliver  important services  -  from healthcare to the construction of homes in short supply.  The last thing we need is to redeploy those workers onto assembly lines to make stuff more expensive! Sure, protect critical industries like micro chips and rare earths.  However, it makes no sense to have expensive American workers making sneakers and kids toys.   Still not convinced? Well, see how isolationism is working out for the UK....

@Chicago48 4天前
大约十年前，我在一所常春藤盟校工作并获得博士学位。科学项目由来自中国和印度的约70%的亚洲学生组成。  他们中的许多人没有留在美国，而是回国发展自己的国家经济。  或者他们在美国科技公司工作，学习和磨练自己的技能，然后带着知识回到亚洲。  我知道伊利诺伊州有一所大学一定有1/2的学生来自中国，我相信其他IVY学校也是如此。
如果不去美国大学，亚洲人就会去加拿大和英国的大学。  这些大学依赖外国学生。

@Chicago48 4天前
About 10 years ago I worked for an Ivy league university and the Ph.D. science programs consisted of about 70% Asian students from China, India.  Many of them didn't stay in the US but went home and built up their country economies.  Or they worked for the US tech companies, learned and honed their skills and then went back to Asia with the knowledge.  I know there's an Illinois university that must have 1/2 its students from China, and I'm sure it's the same with the other IVY schools.
If not the US universities, the Asians will go to Canadian and English universities.  These universities depend on foreign students.

@dannyseville2543 4天前
不仅限于中国，但特朗普说的让我发笑的是世界不再购买美国汽车。特斯拉在全球范围内的表现还不错，通用汽车（蛋白石/沃克斯豪尔）并不是一个像样的品牌，福特确实在削减其产品组合，而大多数其他美国品牌在美国以外的市场供应有限。 
科技——除了价格过高的苹果之外，现在还有什么其他国家没有更好的选择呢？ 
食品 - 也许如果他们的标准更好，他们可能会进行更好的贸易。
@dannyseville2543 4天前
Not particularly limited to China but something that Trump said that made me laugh was about the world isn't buying American cars. Tesla ain't doing too bad globally, gm (opal / vauxhall) aren't exactly a decent brand, ford are really cutting back on their portfolio and most other american brands have limited availability outside of the US. 
Tech - aside from the overpriced Apple, what else is there now that doesn't have better options from other countries? 
Food - maybe if their standards were better, they might do better trade.

@hongdeli6148 36秒钟前
即使所有进口产品都征收300%的关税，但还是会在中国制造。因为很多产品的生产已经自动化、机械化了，其他国家就生产不了，而其他国家没有中国这样的全球市场空间，根本赚不到钱。
@hongdeli6148 6分钟前
美国伟大的伟大之处在于，现在什么也做不了。
@hongdeli6148 36秒钟前
Even if 300% tariff on all imports; but it will still made in China.  Because the production of many products has been automated and mechanized, other countries cannot produce them, and other countries do not have the global market space that China has. They simply cannot make a profit.
@hongdeli6148 6分钟前
The great of the great USA is that the graet is that can do nothing now.

在他的连任竞选中，毫无疑问，他对美国霸权的野心仍然是他的北极星。我们将雇用美国人，购买美国产品，建设美国，发展美国，并向全世界展示美国梦又回来了。但在离开椭圆形办公室四年后，特朗普回来面对的是一个更加大胆、更加精明的中国，而美国可能已经在遏制中国方面失败了。解决这个问题很可能是特朗普在与中国四年摊牌之后的主要情节之一。谢谢，谢谢。

让我们倒退一秒钟。中国进口 2001 年中国加入世界贸易组织，标志着全球经济进入新纪元。贸易壁垒降低，中国得以向全球出口廉价玩具、T 恤和电视机，出口热潮帮助数亿中国人跻身中产阶级。然后，在中国，发生了两件关键事件。我正式竞选美国总统。同年，中国正式公布了一项十年计划，旨在通过尖端创新升级其蓬勃发展的出口经济。“中国制造 2025”本质上是习近平主席的愿景，旨在确保中国成为全球技术领军者。从本质上讲，这实际上是确保中国的国家安全目标是其政策制定的核心。这种宏伟抱负将激励历届美国总统采取行动。

这是第一点，但这只是众多计划中的第一个。美国为遏制中国经济增长而采取的关税和限制措施始于特朗普政府的关税和一些贸易政策。基本上，他们试图提高中国公司向美国销售产品的成本，从而纠正巨大的贸易逆差。当一个国家从一个国家的进口量超过向这个国家的出口量时，就会出现这种不平衡。

拜登总统推迟决定取消特朗普时代对中国进口产品征收的任何关税。你可以看到这在 2023 年产生了影响。赤字缩减至 2010 年以来的最小总额，反映了从中国进口的下降。但在全球范围内，中国的生产能力正处于历史最高水平。自二战后美国以来，中国制成品贸易顺差占全球 GDP 的比例是任何国家中最大的。特朗普还出台了控制美国制造商以及一些盟国经济体高科技出口的政策，这些政策被拜登政府收紧。

因此，这实际上使得将美国商品或美国技术转移到中国变得不可能或更加困难。美国政府阻止华为向美国出售其大部分电信设备，然后又更进一步。它联系了世界各地的许多盟友，试图说服他们也不要让华为向他们的国家出售设备。这给他们带来了各种各样的问题。2022 年，他们限制了中国获得最先进半导体的能力，包括用于训练 ChatGPT 等模型的 AI 芯片。他们还限制了该国获得芯片制造设备的能力，包括制造驱动智能手机的最先进芯片的机器，以及人工智能和量子计算。

大型设备，例如荷兰公司 ASML 开发的这些极紫外光刻机。这些限制还旨在阻止中国科技巨头开发任何可能威胁美国军事优势的东西，这一担忧长期以来一直与华盛顿的经济战略交织在一起。在半导体和这些非常敏感的技术方面，中国仍然落后于美国。所以我们看到了一些有效的在那里，美国是可以做到的。但数据显示，美国主导的出口管制产生了意想不到的副作用。它们迫使中国变得更加自力更生，政府支持并投资于自己的科学家和研究人员。

他们非常积极地申请专利，他们认为这些专利将帮助他们发展对其未来至关重要的国内产业。当国家主席习近平在中国将某件事作为优先事项时，他可以指出银行提供廉价融资。他可以指出国有企业全力支持该部门或行业。

例如，上海微电子装备等公司的支持者拥有先进的光刻机，被认为是中国与 ASML 竞争的最佳选择。在这一点上，我认为每个人都认为他们距离能够与 ASML 在行业巅峰地位相匹敌还有许多年的时间。但他们正在为此投入数十亿美元，他们决心尽可能缩小差距。

2023 年，当我们发布 Mate 60 时，或者更准确地说，彭博新闻社委托一家研究公司拆解了一部手机，这证明了中国半导体生态系统正在扩大。手机内部的半导体比任何人想象的都要强大得多。这表明，中国不是落后美国 8 年或 10 年。实际上，中国落后美国 4 到 5 年。但交叉应用才是 DC 真正担心的，如果我们可以对手机这样的消费产品做到这一点，那么对用于军事应用和其他领域的更敏感的技术也同样容易做到这一点。

中国确实已经冲在前面，占据了领先地位。看看这张图表。你可以看到，中国在许多高科技出口产品中的市场份额正在增长，尤其是电动汽车。尽管美国征收关税，限制技术获取。归根结底，人们认为贸易总能顺利进行。

这就是我们在思考中国电动汽车行业时看到的情况。例如，比亚迪这样的大型电动汽车制造商已经通过在泰国、匈牙利和巴西等地建厂来规避一些潜在的限制。

特朗普希望进一步限制中国电动汽车和电池的进口。在他的第二任期内，他可能会试图履行一项保护美国汽车制造商的竞选承诺。

我将征收任何需要的关税，100%、200%、1000%。特朗普的第二任期他们不会向美国出售一辆汽车。华盛顿担心的是，电动汽车及其背后的一些软件将能够收集个人信息，并可能与中国政府共享，或者至少与参与制造这些汽车的公司共享。北京强烈反对这种言论。那么，两届美国政府是否以特朗普最初打算的方式阻碍了中国？似乎并非如此。

彭博社追踪的“中国制造 2025”目标中，绝大多数已经实现或即将实现。关税有助于减少美国与其竞争对手的贸易逆差。但正如我们之前所看到的，关税并没有阻止中国扩大其他地区的出口。尽管美国可能在某些领域（如先进芯片制造）减缓了北京的进步，但总体而言，习近平的产业政策正在成功提升中国的技术能力。但即使美国尚未成功打倒中国，也没有人认为特朗普第二届政府会停止尝试。

如果你看看地缘政治格局，我认为很明显，美国将继续对他们的生活施加压力，要求实施更多限制。特朗普与中国第一次对抗的后续结果如何，尚待书写。但如果你听特朗普的话，很明显，让美国保持领先地位是他的最终目标。我们可以做别人做不到的事情。

中国没有我们所拥有的东西。没有人拥有我们所拥有的东西。

Trump Is Facing a Losing Tariff War With China

Bloomberg Originals  2024年11月8日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB9jBpX1yx8

The US and China are locked in a battle for tech supremacy, and it’s set to be a major challenge for Donald Trump. Years of tariffs, export controls and financial sanctions have done little to slow Xi Jinping’s quest for dominance. China has become a world leader in industries like electric vehicles and solar power, and it's catching up in others. But even though the US hasn’t managed to trip China up yet, there’s no sign it's going to stop trying. 

Introduction
It's official Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States. Donald Trump's first presidency gave Washington a playbook of hardline tactics for preventing China from overtaking the US as the world's dominant economic and technological power.
Trump introduced punitive tariffs on China, as well as trying to rebalance the trade deficit to try and contain China's economic rise, as well as trying to contain its military might.

To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. Trump is focused on raising tariffs to prevent China from shipping many of their goods into the United States that perhaps are subsidized by the government.

In his campaign for reelection, left no doubt that his ambition for American supremacy was still his North Star. We will hire American, buy American, build American, grow American, and show the whole world that the American dream is back.But after four years out of the Oval Office, Trump is returning to face an emboldened, savvier China and one the US may already be losing its battle to contain.

Tackling that is likely to be one of Trump's primary plotlines in the sequel to his first four year showdown with China. Thank you, thank you. Let's rewind for a second.
Chinese imports When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it marked a new era in global economics.

Lower trade barriers allowed China to ship cheap toys, t-shirts and TVs around the globe, and an export bonanza that helped lift hundreds of millions of Chinese into the middle class. Then around here, two pivotal events occurred. I am officially running for president of the United States. And that same year, China officially revealed a 10-year plan to upgrade its thriving export economy with cutting edge innovations. 'Made in China 2025' is essentially President XI Jinping's vision to secure China's place in the world as a preeminent global technological leader. At its heart, it's really about ensuring that China's national security goals are at the heart of its policymaking. It's the kind of grand ambition that would galvanize successive US presidents into taking action.

This is number one, but this is the first of many. The US Tariffs and restrictions
efforts to contain China's growth began with tariffs and some of the trade policies in the Trump administration. Basically, they sought to make it more expensive for Chinese companies to sell to the US and consequently redress a massive trade deficit.The imbalance that occurs when the nation imports more from a country than it exports to it.

President Biden is holding back on a decision to scrap any Trump era tariffs on China imports. You could see this has had an impact in 2023. The deficit shrank to the smallest total since 2010, reflecting a decline in imports shipped from China. But globally, China's productive prowess is at historic heights. Its manufactured goods trade surplus is the largest relative to global GDP of any country since the US right after World War two.

Trump also introduced policies to control high-tech exports from US manufacturers,
as well as those of some allied economies, which were tightened by the Biden administration.

So that essentially makes it impossible or much harder to transfer US goods or US technologies into China. The US government stopped Huawei from being able to sell much of its telecom equipment into the United States, and then it went even a step further.
It went to many of its allies around the world and tried to persuade them also to not let Huawei sell its equipment into their countries. That caused all sorts of problems for them. 
In 2022, they constrained China's ability to get the most advanced semiconductors out there, including AI chips that would be used to train models like ChatGPT. They also constrained the country's ability to get chipmaking equipment, including the machines that make the most advanced chips that drive smartphones, and also AI and quantum computing.

Massive appliances like these extreme ultraviolet lithography machines developed by Dutch company ASML. The constraints are also intended to hinder China's tech giants from developing anything that could threaten America's military superiority, a concern long intertwined with Washington's economic strategy. In terms of semiconductors and these really sensitive technologies, China is still lagging behind the US. So we have seen some efficacy there. But the data shows US-led export controls had an unintended side effect.
They forced China to become more self-reliant Government support and invest in its own scientists and researchers.

They've been very aggressive in applying for patents that they think are going to help them develop domestic industries that are critical to their future. When President X Jinping makes something a priority in China, he can point to banks to provide cheap financing. He can point to state owned enterprises to throw their full weight
behind, backing that certain sector or industry.

For instance, backers of companies like Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment,considered China's best bet for competing with ASML, has advanced lithography machines. At this point, I think everybody believes that they're many years away from being able to match ASML at the pinnacle of the industry. But they're pouring billions and billions of dollars into this effort, and they're very determined to be able to close the gap as much as they possibly can.

Evidence that China's semiconductor ecosystem was expanding emerged in 2023, when, while we released the Mate 60, or more precisely when Bloomberg News commissioned a research firm to take one apart. Inside that phone was a semiconductor that was much more powerful than anybody thought China could make on its own. It suggested, instead of being 8 or 10 years behind the US. Actually, China was 4 to 5 years behind the US. But the cross application is what really worries DC that if we can do this with a consumer product like a phone, it's just as easy to do this with much more sensitive technology that's used for military applications and other areas.

China really has charged ahead to take a lead. Take a look at this chart. You can see China's market share of many high-tech exports growing, particularly EVs. Despite US tariffs and restrictions on access to technology.Ultimately, there is this idea that trade always gets through.

And that's sort of what we see when we think about the EV industry in China. So for example, a big EV automaker like BYD is already getting around some of these potential restrictions by building factories in places like Thailand, in Hungary and in Brazil.
Trump wants to further limit imports of Chinese EVs and batteries. And in his second term, may try to fulfill a popular campaign pledge to protect US carmakers.

I will impose whatever tariffs are required 100%, 200%, 1,000%. Trump’s second term They're not going to sell one car into the United States. The concern in Washington is that the electric vehicles and some of the software behind them would be able to collect personal information and perhaps share it with the Chinese government, or at least with the companies that are involved in making those vehicles. It's the kind of rhetoric Beijing has vehemently rejected. so have two U.S. administrations hindered China in ways Trump initially intended? It doesn't appear so.

The vast majority of 'Made in China 2025' targets that Bloomberg tracks actually have been achieved or are on track to be achieved. Tariffs have helped cut America's trade deficit with its rival. But as we saw earlier,they haven't prevented China from boosting exports elsewhere. And while the US may have slowed Beijing's progress in some areas,like advanced chipmaking, overall, Xi Jinping's industrial policies are successfully advancing China's technological capabilities. But even if the US hasn't managed to trip China yet, nobody expects a second Trump administration to stop trying.

If you look at the geopolitical, landscape, I think it's clear that the United States will continue to apply pressure on their life for more restriction. How the sequel to Trump's first confrontation with China will play out is yet to be written. But if you listen to Trump, it's clear that keeping America on top is his ultimate goal. We can do things that nobody else can do.

China doesn't have what we have. Nobody has what we have.