沙伊复交！为何中国斡旋能够成功？中东欧美会有何反应？

凤凰大参考 2023年03月11日 07:59:10 来自北京市

编者按：3月10日晚上，沙特阿拉伯-伊朗北京对话取得重要成果，断交长达7年的宿敌恢复外交关系。如何看待两国复交的意义？中方在其中做了哪些工作？未来的沙伊关系以及中东局势会迎来什么变局？《凤凰大参考》特邀中国现代国际关系研究院 中东所副所长秦天解读。

对话｜屈功泽 编辑｜侯逸超

▎3月10日晚，中国沙特伊朗在北京发表三方联合声明，沙特伊朗宣布同意恢复外交关系。

《凤凰大参考》：这一次伊朗和沙特两国恢复外交关系，如何评价这其中的意义？您又是如何看待这一次两国复交的时机？

秦天：此举具有积极且重大的意义。两个层面。一是全球层面。去年以来受乌克兰危机等因素影响，国际格局中生战生乱的倾向在增长，天下不太平的感觉在增强。沙伊一对老冤家此番握手言和，再一次向全球证明了和平的魅力，为全世界的和平稳定注入了正能量。

二是地区层面。沙特伊朗的竞争是近年来中东地区的主要矛盾之一，牵涉到多个地区国家，影响波斯湾航运的安全。两国斗则中东难安，两国和则中东会更安全稳定。2021年以来该地区主要国家之间的交往呈现缓和趋势，此次复交显然会增进和延续上述势头。

时机上，其实过去两年来沙伊两国已经进行了多轮对话，这次可谓水到渠成。两国现在在中国的斡旋下于北京声明复交，时间又和我们正在召开的“两会”重合在一起，可以说，这也是在中国的内政之外，我们于外交方面也收获的一个好消息。

《凤凰大参考》：我们知道伊朗沙特两国之间的关系一向波折不断，不仅有政治上的纠葛，其背后还有延续了千百年之久的宗教和历史因素。您认为这对中东“宿敌”在中国斡旋下复交之后，双边关系还会面临什么样的挑战？

秦天：就像断交解决不了两国的所有问题一样，复交也不可能完全解决问题。复交后继续维系两国关系的难点有二：

一是地区影响力的争夺。两国在也门、叙利亚、巴以等问题上都有不太一致甚至相左的观点，比如在也门就扶植不同军政势力。在地区影响力的争夺上，沙伊可以缓和，但不可能完全消停。

二是经济相互依赖太少。两国都是石油出口国，相互之间的贸易人员往来很少。没有经济利益的互联，就容易使两国关系疏远。

▎中东区域示意图。

即便如此，双方既然恢复外交关系，总体的势头一定也会向积极的方向迈进，以上的这些问题，我们也可以留出一些时间，期待下一步是否能有比较好的解决方案。

《凤凰大参考》：这一次大家最关注的，还是中国在这其中起到的至关重要的作用。中共中央政治局委员、中央外办主任王毅也表示，这是对话的胜利，和平的胜利。中国在这其中做了什么样的工作，为什么中国的倡议得到了两国的积极响应？

秦天：一是有先进理念的指引。联合声明中提到这次斡旋沙伊复交是应习主席的有关倡议而做出的，这就是我方元首外交的引领作用。这些年，习主席提出了“全球安全倡议”。这一倡议具体到中东，就体现为我方提出的诸如“构建中东安全新架构”“设立海湾地区多边对话平台”等等。其中所坚持的劝和促谈、维护和平等理念是获得沙特伊朗两国认可的。

二是有积累和铺垫。中国长期以来在沙特伊朗之间就奉行平衡政策，不点火浇油，也不拉偏架，和两国同步发展各领域交往，也是两国的第一大贸易伙伴和第一大石油进口国。中国赢得了双方的信任，和双方都能说得上话。去年底以来，习主席访问沙特，接待伊朗总统到访，和两国领导人进行了充分有效的前期沟通，也为此次斡旋打下了坚实的基础。

▎沙伊北京对话现场。

《凤凰大参考》：那么对于两国复交之后的中东局势，以及域外的其他大国对此事件的反应，您有一个什么样的预判？

秦天：对于中东多数国家而言，不管其更亲近沙特还是伊朗，是逊尼派还是什叶派，其实都不同程度受到沙伊敌对的外溢和负面影响，因此，对于此次复交，区域内的国家一定会持欢迎态度。

其他主要大国如欧盟国家、俄罗斯还有印度等也会对复交持积极态度，尤其是欧印在中东都有能源、商贸乃至人员利益，希望中东和平稳定、沙伊关系缓和。美国拜登政府目前聚焦乌克兰危机等事务，不希望中东再生事端，对沙伊复交应当也不至反对。

▎据报道，沙特要求美国提供安全保障和援助建立其民用核计划，作为与以色列关系正常化的条件。图自以色列《国土报》

唯一的例外可能是以色列。以色列和伊朗关系极为对立，以色列的政策是尽量孤立伊朗，沙特更是以色列拉拢并孤立伊朗的重要对象。此次复交，显然会令以色列感到一些被动，难免会产生不满情绪。

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia—Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations Friday in a deal mediated by China, ending seven years of estrangement and jolting the geopolitics of the Middle East.

The deal signals a sharp increase in Beijing’s influence in a region where the U.S. has long been the dominant power broker, and could complicate efforts by the U.S. and Israel to strengthen a regional alliance to confront Tehran as it expands its nuclear program. It comes as the U.S. has been trying to broker a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, an effort now clouded with uncertainty.

China in recent years has built closer economic ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia, both of which are important suppliers of oil to the world’s second-largest economy. But this bridge-building effort is the first time Beijing has intervened so directly in the Mideast’s political rivalries.

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It comes at a time when relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, long aligned with Washington, have grown strained over America’s diminishing security guarantees and Riyadh’s decision to cut oil production to keep crude prices high during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia was hammered out behind closed doors in Beijing between top officials of the two countries, they said in a joint statement. Chinese leader Xi Jinping raised the idea of the talks most recently during a state visit to Riyadh in December, according to people familiar with the matter.

As part of the deal, Iran pledged to halt attacks against Saudi Arabia, including from Houthi rebels it backs in the Yemen civil war, according to Saudi, Iranian and U.S. officials. Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies and missions on each other’s soil within two months and agreed that their foreign ministers will hold a summit soon to hammer out other details.

For Tehran, the accord eases the international isolation it has faced since antigovernment protests last fall and the collapse of talks aimed at restoring a 2015 international nuclear deal dashed its hopes of relief from economic sanctions. For Riyadh, it gives the kingdom more leverage as it seeks new U.S. security guarantees from the Biden administration. 

“For Iran it’s about escaping diplomatic isolation. For China, it’s about deepening their engagement in the region and showing it’s not just an energy consumer. And for Saudis it’s about the Americans,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations and former State Department official and former U.S. diplomat.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping in the capital, Riyadh, last year.

But re-establishing diplomatic relations isn’t likely to immediately lessen the longstanding security and sectarian tensions that have divided Riyadh and Tehran for decades and fueled their competition for regional dominance, analysts said.

Ties between the two countries were cut in 2016 after the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was overrun amid protests over the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric by the Saudi government.

Since then, the Iran-Saudi rift has represented the often violent schism between Shiite and Sunni Muslims that has dominated the Middle East for decades.

The Saudis and Iranians have backed opposite sides in conflicts ranging from Syria to Yemen for nearly a decade. In 2019, they were on the brink of war when Iran was blamed for missile and drone attacks on a Saudi oil field.

The current rapprochement follows signs that the proxy wars waged by Riyadh and Tehran were cooling. A United Nations-supported truce between Saudi- and Iran-backed sides in the Yemen war has held for nearly a year. The civil war in Syria has largely been won by President Bashar al-Assad’s government, with help from Iran and Russia.

Another Persian Gulf rival of Iran, the United Arab Emirates, reopened its embassy in Iran last year and has been pursuing trade and open lines of communication with Tehran.

The deal left unaddressed Iran’s nuclear program, which has been a source of friction between Tehran and much of the world, including China, for two decades. U.S. sanctions on Iran have left its economy in ruins, with a currency crisis in recent weeks roiling the country.

The Saudi government had kept U.S. officials apprised of their discussions to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran, which dates back to talks in recent years in Baghdad and Oman, and supported the efforts in the hope that it would resolve some of the growing tensions in the Gulf, officials said. The U.S. wasn’t directly involved in these talks, officials said.

Ultimately, U.S. officials said the aim was to prevent any further attacks against Saudi Arabia, including those by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The officials believe that Iran had an incentive to join the talks because it wants to ease the growing political and economic pressure at home, and hopes that any diplomatic breakthroughs with its immediate neighbors might help.

U.S. officials said the next two months, until the official reopening of the embassies, would be critical in gauging how serious Tehran is in honoring the agreement.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last month.

“This is not a regime that typically does honor its word, so we hope that they do,” White House National Security Council Strategic Coordinator John Kirby told reporters Friday. “We’d like to see this war in Yemen end, and that this arrangement that they have, might help lead us to that outcome.”

Mr. Kirby added: “This is not about China. We support any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think that’s in our interests, and it’s something that we worked on through our own effective combination of deterrence and diplomacy.”

China’s role in the talks marks a watershed moment for Beijing’s ambitions in the region, a part of the world where the U.S. has waged war and spent hundreds of billions of dollars in providing security for allies. Along with Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, China’s diplomacy is another sign of the U.S.’s waning influence.

China has stepped up its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran in recent years as it became a major buyer of Middle East oil, but its ambitions had long appeared commercial, with little interest in involving itself in the region’s messy disputes.

Beijing has provided a lifeline to sanctions-hit Iran, becoming its main remaining crude buyer since the U.S. pulled out of a nuclear deal in 2018. But it has also sought closer ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival, for which it is the biggest trade partner and a top oil buyer. Riyadh has also started importing sensitive missile technology from the Chinese military.

Tehran had been increasingly worried Beijing’s growing ties with Saudi Arabia could leave it further isolated. Mr. Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December triggered a backlash in Iran after Beijing joined an Arab statement calling on Tehran to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program.

The Gulf-China summit in Riyadh in December was key in getting Beijing more interested in de-escalating tensions between Riyadh and Tehran, said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at political-risk advisory firm Eurasia Group, calling it a “quick win that showcases a new framework” of cooperation between China and the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s Embassy in Tehran was stormed by Iranian protesters in 2016.

“Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s view that China can accommodate some of Riyadh’s security interests has been partially vindicated,” said Mr. Kamel.

China’s ability to broker a deal between two Middle East heavyweights “opens the first chapter of Beijing emerging as a key diplomatic power in the region,” he added.

Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. negotiator in the Middle East, said the deal reflects smaller powers readjusting to Washington’s de-prioritization of the region.

“The Saudis see a multipolar future with China and Russia as important partners—fellow autocrats who don’t ask questions about human rights,” said Mr. Miller, now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“But it’s also a real slap in the face to Biden. At a time when U.S.-China relations are getting colder, MBS is getting cozier with Beijing,” he said, using Prince Mohammed’s initials.

The growing rapprochement between Shia-led Iran and the region’s leading Sunni states has unfolded despite U.S. efforts to keep Tehran economically and diplomatically isolated.

Under the Trump administration, the U.S. exited the 2015 nuclear deal reached by former President Barack Obama, restored sanctions and turned up efforts to choke off Iran’s oil exports and strangle its economy. 

Saudi officials told U.S. officials shortly after the Biden administration took office in 2021 that they planned to continue to explore improving ties with Tehran, and the U.S. raised no objection though saw little prospect of a rapprochement, U.S. officials have said. The White House kept most sanctions in place and embarked on its own effort to restore the nuclear deal. But after Iran’s harsh crackdown on antigovernment protesters last fall the talks were suspended.

“For Tehran, rapprochement with the kingdom formally breaks the anti-Iran maximum pressure coalition, offering it less isolation with the potential for economic engagement. For Riyadh, it showcases a shift towards directly managing its tensions bilaterally rather than outsourcing to external actors,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

The aftermath of airstrikes on a funeral hall in Yemen’s capital, San’a, in 2016.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are restoring relations at a time when the U.S. is trying to broker a peace deal between the Saudis and Israel, which would add to the growing ties between Israel and the Arab world. Iran is a rival of Israel, opposing the normalization deals and waging a covert war against the country.

Arab countries have embraced ties with Israel in part for intelligence sharing on Iran, and there have long been hopes in Washington for a so-called Arab NATO that would counter Iran. In Israel, the announcement of restored Saudi-Iran ties was met with dismay. 

It couldn’t be immediately determined Friday how renewed Saudi-Iran ties would affect attempts to also build bridges to Israel. Arab countries have embraced ties with Israel in part for intelligence sharing on Iran, and there have long been hopes in Washington for a so-called Arab NATO that would counter Iran.

In Israel, the announcement of restored Saudi-Iran ties was met with dismay.

“The Saudi-Iran deal is a total failure of the Israeli government’s foreign policy,” said Yair Lapid, the opposition leader. “It’s the collapse of a regional defense wall we started building against Iran.”

Dion Nissenbaum and Summer Said contributed to this article.

Write to Stephen Kalin at [email protected], Benoit Faucon at [email protected], Vivian Salama at [email protected] and David S. Cloud at [email protected]