制裁已成为美国的首选外交政策工具。 贸易关税、经济处罚和出口管制等强制性经济措施影响着全球大量公司和国家。 其中一些处罚针对的是非国家行为者，例如哥伦比亚贩毒集团和伊斯兰恐怖组织； 其他适用于整个国家，包括朝鲜、伊朗和俄罗斯。 美国政策制定者将制裁视为一种低成本策略，但实际上这些措施往往达不到预期目的——其强大的副作用甚至会损害美国的利益。
《适得其反》探讨了制裁对跨国公司、政府以及最终影响全球数百万人的令人惊讶的方式。 通过对专家、政策制定者和受制裁国家人民的采访，Agathe Demarais 审视了将制裁用作外交武器的意外后果。 随着各州和公司想方设法规避美国的处罚，制裁的扩散刺激了逃避制裁的努力。 这只是故事的一部分。 制裁还重塑了国家之间的关系，促使与美国不和的政府彼此更加亲近——或者越来越多地与俄罗斯和中国亲近。
从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰到伊朗的 COVID 反应和中国的加密货币野心，Backfire 充满了涵盖广泛主题的违反直觉的见解，揭示了制裁如何改变地缘政治和全球经济——以及削弱美国的影响力。 这位内部人士的叙述是一本令人大开眼界、通俗易懂且及时的书，阐明了在日益多极化的世界中制裁的未来。
Sanctions are in fashion. Trump used them with relish. Biden has deployed formidable ones against Russia. But do they work? And what are their side effects and long-term impact? These are critical questions, and Agathe Demarais’s excellent, clear-headed book has uncomfortable answers.
Daniel Franklin, The Economist
Backfire is a balanced, fast-paced, and often surprising account of the growing influence that sanctions have had on businesses, economies, and people around the world over recent decades, highlighting their often unintended and self-defeating consequences as well as their rare successes.
Paul Hannon, The Wall Street Journal
With the knowledge of an expert and tight prose of a journalist, Agathe Demarais has written a fast-paced, well-articulated review of the difficulties, risks, and unintended consequences of using sanctions. This book should be added to university curricula and personal reading lists alike.
Richard Nephew, author of The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field
Linking her knowledge of international sanctions to a fascinating, lively account of their far-reaching effects (including humanitarian), Demarais provides a powerful and compelling narrative of the overuse of sanctions by the United States for the past decade. An indispensable read to dive into international relations through an original and timely prism.
Julien Nocetti, Saint-Cyr Military Academy
Anyone interested in sanctions, especially those implemented by the United States and the broader impact of the economic tool, should explore this very current and thoughtful work. This book will be appreciated by both the general reader and serious scholar, which makes it a perfect addition to economic and policy collections.
James Rhoades, Library Journal
The heyday of US-led sanctions is drawing to a close. Demarais predicts that a self-reliant China will increasingly undermine US sanctions on Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela and other authoritarian regimes. Backfire provides valuable pointers for policymakers.
Robert Wihtol, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
[Demarais’s] industry perspective is illuminating when exploring how firms behave toward sanctions.
Ali Ahmadi, International Affairs
Agathe Demarais soulève également une autre interrogation, tout aussi vertigineuse : le projet américain, à savoir divorcer économiquement de la Chine par une hausse des restrictions, des contrôles des exportations venues de Pékin et autres sanctions, aura-t-il les conséquences espérées ? Arguments à l’appui, l’autrice prévient : le découplage économique américano-chinois pourrait rendre le monde beaucoup plus dangereux.
Marie Charrel, Le Monde
Demarais, a global policy expert, provides a contemporary analysis of U.S. sanctions’ place, function, and effects in the world. [She] illuminate[s] how globalization became weaponized by superpowers and how it might have fractured the world.
Robin Kaiser-Schatzlein, The New Republic
Quelles conséquences a le recours croissant à l’arme économique ? Quels effets les sanctions produisent-elles dans les sociétés et les économies ciblées ? Comment les Etats visés s’adaptent-ils ? Les sanctions sont-elles à même de stabiliser l’ordre international ? C’est à ces questions clés de la géopolitique contemporaine qu’Agathe Demarais répond dans son livre.
Louis De Catheu, Le Grand Continent
Current sanctions may undermine the effectiveness of future sanctions; thus, weaponizing Western banks and currencies against Russia may encourage Moscow and others to increase their reliance on China’s financial system. Demarais posits that the use of sanctions as a policy instrument has probably peaked.
Barry Eichengreen, Foreign Affairs
Agathe Demarais has written one of the timeliest books to be published in [2022]. […] Demarais’s book is not only essential to understanding the dynamics of U.S. sanctions but, considering that it was finished in early 2022, has proven to be prophetic with regard to recent developments in Russian oil, European energy, and semiconductors.
Mathias Fuelling, The Oxonian Review
In Backfire, Agathe Demarais highlights the risks of [export controls]. Though her manuscript was completed before the chip export ban, her argument is prescient: […] to be effective, [sanctions] should be targeted, short-term, and backed by allies.
Edoardo Campanella, Project Syndicate
Interessant: Die Expertin warnt vor der Überstrapazierung dieses Instruments. Die permanente ökonomische Bestrafung führe zum „Sanction Overkill“, weil am Ende alle ökonomischen Beziehungen politisiert würden. Viele Handelspartner verschwinden von der Landkarte. Die Lieferketten werden disruptiert. Die Preise steigen.
Gabor Steingart, Focus
Demarais offers a timely and important contribution of a primarily European perspective to an important debate: Do U.S. sanctions work? Her book is a breezy tour through a series of case studies that examine the sometimes unforeseen forces U.S. sanctions unleashed, their impact on European companies, and the responses they triggered from European officials. […] The lesson one might draw from “Backfire” is this: The U.S. needs to engage Europe.
Michael Laha, The Diplomat
Demarais’ astute analysis is both compelling and persuasive. […] Backfire is an engaging and enlightening read on a crucially important subject.
Gregory Brew, The Bridge
The book’s perspective can be distinguished from works by former US officials […]. American sanctions practitioners tend to write about sanctions with a certain detachment. They rarely have experience “in the field” and the unintended consequences are an affirmation of the power of the economic weapon they helped develop. For her part, Demarais aims to provide a “clear picture” about [sanctions’] effects.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Phenomenal World
Excellent, insightful and rather sobering.
Mark Beeson, The Conversation
Backfire […] paints a fascinating picture of what sanctions can mean in practice. Against the vague and general descriptions in much popular and academic writing on sanctions, Demarais provides startling, [overwhelming], and instructive case studies of sanctions gone wrong.
Benjamin Letzler, International and Comparative Law Quarterly
Backfire offers a critical contribution to the field by explaining to laypersons, policymakers and international affairs experts alike what sanctions are about and what they do in ‘real’ life. Agathe Demarais uses an impressive number of examples and anecdotes to surgically decipher how sanctions work.
Mathieu Boulègue, RUSI Journal
The book is riveting stuff for the reader. It encompasses case studies of many episodes of US sanctions in recent decades, starting with Cuba. In short, an abundance of high-quality and delicious food for thought. Not only about sanctions, but especially about contemporary America.
Boris Begovi?, Belgrade Law Review
Agathe Demarais
An economist by training, I am a thought leader on global affairs and the author of Backfire, a book on US sanctions. I love to present complex issues in a clear, accessible way. My areas of interest include the global economy, geopolitics and sanctions. I am based in London, with frequent trips to Paris.
As the global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), I lead the EIU’s global economic and geopolitical forecasting, connecting the dots in the analysis of the EIU’s analysts across the world. I also manage the EIU’s global forecasting team and head the publication of EIU’s monthly global macroeconomic outlook.
Prior to joining the EIU, I worked as an economic advisor for the diplomatic corps of the French Treasury. I spent five years in Russia and three years in the Middle East, where I developed my knowledge of emerging countries, sanctions and policymaking. I also worked in investment banking in Russia and the US.
I have master’s degrees from Sciences Po Paris and Columbia University, where I studied as a Fulbright scholar. I speak fluent French, English, Russian, Arabic (Levantine dialect and Classical), and Spanish. Beyond work, I am also:
For more information, you can download my résumé here.
On social media, you can contact me either on Twitter (where my direct messages are open) or on LinkedIn.
My email address is agathedemarais at economist dot com. This is the fastest way to reach out for media engagements.
Email is also the easiest way to get in touch with me if you would like to have a chat about my sanctions book, Backfire.
To review Backfire, please email Peter Barrett, my publicist from Columbia University Press. His email is pb2272 at columbia dot edu.
Journalistes francophones, vous pouvez retrouver mon profil sur le site internet du réseau Les Expertes (France).
For speaking engagements, please get in touch with my colleagues from EIU’s Speakers Bureau.
