Poll: Arab nations sour on Western democracy

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/14/WS62cf8934a310fd2b29e6c566.html

By YIFAN XU in Washington | China Daily Global |  2022-07-14 11:10

Faith in democracy on the decline among noteworthy findings in major BBC MENA survey

LONDON: BBC News Arabic revealed on Wednesday the findings of a major survey conducted in the Middle East and North Africa region between 2021-2022. 

Approximately 23,000 people were interviewed across Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Palestinian on a wide range of topics, including democracy, women’s rights, the economy and race. 

Conducted between October 2021 and April 2022, the survey was commissioned by BBC News Arabic in partnership with Arab Barometer, a research network based at Princeton University.

Sam Farah, head of BBC News Arabic, said: “The Arab World Survey 2021/2022 is vital in helping us to understand what people living in the Middle East and North Africa think about the pressing issues affecting their lives.”

One of the most noteworthy findings is that faith in democracy is in rapid decline in the countries surveyed.

Over 50 percent of participants in Tunisia, Sudan, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, and Palestine believe that their country’s economy is weak under a democratic system, with Iraq having the highest number of people who appear to have lost faith in democracy (72 percent).

That said, the majority of people in all countries surveyed believe that while democracy may have problems, it is still better than other political systems. 

In Mauritania, Tunisia, Libya, Sudan, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and the Palestinian territories, more than half of those surveyed agreed with the statement that their country needs a leader who can bend the rules if necessary to get things done.

Another notable finding is that people believe economic conditions are worsening. 

Lebanon is ranked lowest out of all the countries in the survey, with less than 1 percent of Lebanese surveyed saying that the current economic situation is good. 

Overall, most people surveyed do not expect that the economic situation in their country will improve in the next few years. Some optimism exists, nevertheless. In six countries, over a third of surveyed citizens say the situation will be better or somewhat better in the coming two to three years.

Of those surveyed, many have experienced food insecurity and scarcity and say that often or sometimes they did not have money to buy more food. The struggle to keep food on the table was most acutely witnessed in Egypt and Mauritania, where around two in three people said this happened sometimes or often.

In general, attitudes toward the role of women in the region are slowly becoming more progressive, apart from Morocco where 49 percent of Moroccans said men are better at political leadership than women. 

While attitudes regarding the role of women were improving, the majority of participants believe that violence toward women has increased, with 61 percent of participants in Tunisia agreeing with this statement. 

The survey also suggests that people appear to be finding their faith again, particularly young people. However, trust in religious leaders is decreasing, with 47 percent of Lebanese and 31 percent of Sudanese surveyed saying they do not have any trust in religious leaders.

In terms of attitudes toward world leaders, US President Joe Biden’s MENA policies are viewed as being not much better than those of Trump, but the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is widely supported in surveyed countries.

Meanwhile, the policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remain popular in the countries surveyed. 

Finally, more than a third of people in all countries surveyed except Egypt agree that racial discrimination is a problem, with Tunisia having the highest number of people agreeing with this (80 percent).

However, 82 percent of Egyptians say that there is no racial discrimination at all against black people.

Arab nations lose faith in Western democracy

Half of surveyed places say economies weak under governance approach

The United States has not been a responsible stakeholder in the Middle East, and "the broad trend since the mid-2000s has been one of disenchantment and disillusionment with the US' role in the region", according to a foreign policy expert.

"The US has swung between an over militarized strategy through much of the first decade and half of the 21st century to one that has failed to come to the aid of partners and allies at critical moments during the second half of the 2010s," Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Institute for China-America Studies, told China Daily.

A recent poll shows that Arab nations' faith in Western-style democracy is diminishing, particularly the belief that it can deliver economic stability across the Middle East and North Africa region, according to a BBC News Arabic survey.

Nearly 23,000 participants were interviewed for the July 6 poll, "The Arab World Survey 2021/2022".

Arab Barometer, a research network based at Princeton University, conducted the survey for BBC News Arabic between October 2021 and April 2022, three years after the last survey.

The survey found that all places surveyed showed declining faith in Western-style democracy. Meanwhile, half or more of them said their countries' economies are weak under a Western-style democratic system.

That was the opinion of 72 percent of Iraqis and 57 percent of Jordanians－only 24 percent of Jordanians thought that in the 2018-19 survey.

The survey also found a prevailing feeling that economic conditions are worsening, with a majority of respondents saying the economic situation in their country was "bad" or "very bad".

And most participants did not expect the situation would improve in the next few years. More than 50 percent in most places surveyed said they have experienced food insecurity and scarcity.

Dashed hopes

Gupta said, "The survey's findings point to the dashed hopes and expectations in the Middle East and Arab world, a little over 10 years after the outbreak of the 'Arab Spring'. It was hoped that the 'Arab Spring' would usher in more development, more prosperity, more democracy and ultimately a more peaceful region. None of these hopes have been realized."

Michael Robbins, the director of the Arab Barometer, said there is a growing perception that Western democracy is not a perfect form of government and it won't fix everything, as cited by BBC News.

"What we see across the region is people going hungry, people need bread, people are frustrated with the systems that they have," said Robbins.

One week after the survey results were published, US President Joe Biden kicked off his visit to the Middle East on Tuesday. This first trip to the region as president will take him to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia.

Just Security, an online forum for analysis of national security, foreign policy and rights, based at the New York University School of Law, published an article titled "Backgrounder: President Biden's Middle East Trip".

It described "the future of important bilateral relationships and multilateral initiatives" between the US and Middle Eastern countries as being "at stake".

The article listed a number of issues, including "regional security cooperation, the fate of nuclear negotiations with Iran (and) America's involvement in building peace between Israel and Palestine".

Gupta said that the purpose of Biden's visit to the region is limited and focused. "He wants the Sunni Arab Gulf oil producers to ramp up production in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict so as to ease the high oil prices and the inflationary pressures that it is creating.

"And a secondary purpose of the trip is to send a message of continuing American resolve and interest in the region so that basic stability is maintained, and Washington thereby doesn't need to get dragged down deep into the many longstanding quarrels and flashpoints," he said.

In Gupta's analysis, Biden will likely achieve the secondary purpose of the trip and a modicum of progress for the primary goal.

Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said that the US faces several challenges in its relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and other non-treaty allies in this region.

"Regional partners will be aware of the US pivoting to focus on Asia and Europe, and Biden's visit will not change this perception," Byman wrote in "Biden's difficult task: Reviving US partnerships in the Middle East", published July 8 on Brookings' website.

"For now, the US relationship with regional allies is transactional, with little trust or respect on either side," he wrote.

Gupta said: "From administration to administration, there have been pendulum swings in the US' policy. And rather than endowing security and stability to the region, the US has more or less ended up 'breaking' the region over the past 20 years or so with its numerous illegal and ill-advised wars."

"The region has become tired of America, and America too has tired of the region," he said.

Gupta added that China, by contrast, had been maintaining "a lower profile and deepened its relations, especially its economic relations, with parties on all sides of the divide in the Middle East and the Arab world".

"And it has stayed away from political involvement in the region's conflicts, including brokering peace arrangements, as well as from military entanglements in the region, except the limited ones mandated by the United Nations such as the counterpiracy missions. This has been a wise strategy. China has been a political and development partner to all, shown restraint and not chosen sides," said Gupta.

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