从长远来看,长期的,固定的(定期的)投资才是分享经济增长的最安全模式。比如每个月定投。加拿大政府在这方面有着清晰的指引。鼓励大家以这种方式来安排计划自己的退休金和小朋友的教育费用,我经过十年的尝试,确实很有效。中国经济太依赖于行政命令,要不一哄而上,要不回头等政府。反而像宋朝,民国时期这种弱势政府,经济发展很有亮点。无论如何,现在大家都意识的悬崖就在前面,躲是躲不过去的,希望掉下去时摔的不要太惨
现在我们每个人都像走夜路的情况,哼个歌給自己壮胆,互相安慰鼓励,使自己相信我们没走错路。我也是这样,因为走错了很惨。
那么我们作一个模拟。模拟有一个基金是跟沪深300指数同步的。它的价值是沪深300指数的千分之一。即指数是1000的话,它的市值为1.000元。每个月的最后一个交易日我们买入1000.00元。交易费用为0.3%.我们以10年为一个周期。看看结果如何。
Date | Open | Close | Adj Close | | |
2015-4-1 | 4123.9 | 4789.15 | 4789.15 | 4.789 | 208.18 |
2015-3-2 | 3601.26 | 4051.2 | 4051.2 | 4.051 | 246.10 |
2015-2-2 | 3353.96 | 3572.84 | 3572.84 | 3.573 | 279.05 |
2015-1-1 | 3533.71 | 3434.39 | 3434.39 | 3.434 | 290.30 |
2014-12-1 | 2819.81 | 3533.71 | 3533.71 | 3.534 | 282.14 |
2014-11-3 | 2512.55 | 2808.82 | 2808.82 | 2.809 | 354.95 |
2014-10-8 | 2478.38 | 2508.32 | 2508.32 | 2.508 | 397.48 |
2014-9-1 | 2355.32 | 2450.99 | 2450.99 | 2.451 | 406.77 |
2014-8-1 | 2329.4 | 2338.29 | 2338.29 | 2.338 | 426.38 |
2014-7-1 | 2164.56 | 2350.25 | 2350.25 | 2.350 | 424.21 |
2014-6-3 | 2149.92 | 2165.12 | 2165.12 | 2.165 | 460.48 |
2014-5-5 | 2156.47 | 2156.46 | 2156.46 | 2.156 | 462.33 |
2014-4-1 | 2163.11 | 2158.66 | 2158.66 | 2.159 | 461.86 |
2014-3-3 | 2190.37 | 2146.3 | 2146.3 | 2.146 | 464.52 |
2014-2-7 | 2212.48 | 2178.97 | 2178.97 | 2.179 | 457.56 |
2014-1-2 | 2321.98 | 2202.45 | 2202.45 | 2.202 | 452.68 |
2013-12-2 | 2418.79 | 2330.03 | 2330.03 | 2.330 | 427.89 |
2013-11-1 | 2384.96 | 2438.94 | 2438.94 | 2.439 | 408.78 |
2013-10-8 | 2441.81 | 2373.72 | 2373.72 | 2.374 | 420.02 |
2013-9-2 | 2320.34 | 2409.04 | 2409.04 | 2.409 | 413.86 |
2013-8-1 | 2245.36 | 2313.91 | 2313.91 | 2.314 | 430.87 |
2013-7-1 | 2213.32 | 2193.02 | 2193.02 | 2.193 | 454.62 |
2013-6-3 | 2602.62 | 2200.64 | 2200.64 | 2.201 | 453.05 |
2013-5-2 | 2449.64 | 2606.43 | 2606.43 | 2.606 | 382.52 |
2013-4-1 | 2493.19 | 2447.31 | 2447.31 | 2.447 | 407.39 |
2013-3-1 | 2668.84 | 2495.08 | 2495.08 | 2.495 | 399.59 |
2013-2-1 | 2743.32 | 2673.33 | 2673.33 | 2.673 | 372.94 |
2013-1-1 | 2522.95 | 2686.88 | 2686.88 | 2.687 | 371.06 |
2012-12-3 | 2108.85 | 2522.95 | 2522.95 | 2.523 | 395.17 |
2012-11-1 | 2297.88 | 2139.66 | 2139.66 | 2.140 | 465.96 |
2012-10-1 | 2293.11 | 2254.82 | 2254.82 | 2.255 | 442.16 |
2012-9-3 | 2228.37 | 2293.11 | 2293.11 | 2.293 | 434.78 |
2012-8-1 | 2358.65 | 2204.87 | 2204.87 | 2.205 | 452.18 |
2012-7-2 | 2465.24 | 2332.92 | 2332.92 | 2.333 | 427.36 |
2012-6-1 | 2633 | 2461.61 | 2461.61 | 2.462 | 405.02 |
2012-5-1 | 2626.16 | 2632.04 | 2632.04 | 2.632 | 378.79 |
2012-4-2 | 2454.9 | 2626.16 | 2626.16 | 2.626 | 379.64 |
2012-3-1 | 2633.34 | 2454.9 | 2454.9 | 2.455 | 406.13 |
2012-2-1 | 2428.99 | 2634.14 | 2634.14 | 2.634 | 378.49 |
2012-1-2 | 2345.74 | 2464.26 | 2464.26 | 2.464 | 404.58 |
2011-12-1 | 2583.61 | 2345.74 | 2345.74 | 2.346 | 425.03 |
2011-11-1 | 2697.53 | 2521.52 | 2521.52 | 2.522 | 395.40 |
2011-10-10 | 2557.08 | 2695.31 | 2695.31 | 2.695 | 369.90 |
2011-9-1 | 2834.53 | 2581.35 | 2581.35 | 2.581 | 386.23 |
2011-8-1 | 2977.07 | 2846.78 | 2846.78 | 2.847 | 350.22 |
2011-7-1 | 3049.75 | 2972.08 | 2972.08 | 2.972 | 335.46 |
2011-6-1 | 3004.17 | 3044.09 | 3044.09 | 3.044 | 327.52 |
2011-5-3 | 3211.13 | 3001.56 | 3001.56 | 3.002 | 332.16 |
2011-4-1 | 3272.73 | 3192.72 | 3192.72 | 3.193 | 312.27 |
2011-3-1 | 3254.89 | 3223.29 | 3223.29 | 3.223 | 309.31 |
2011-2-1 | 3077.28 | 3239.56 | 3239.56 | 3.240 | 307.76 |
2011-1-4 | 3189.68 | 3076.51 | 3076.51 | 3.077 | 324.07 |
2010-12-1 | 3136.02 | 3128.26 | 3128.26 | 3.128 | 318.71 |
2010-11-1 | 3473 | 3136.99 | 3136.99 | 3.137 | 317.82 |
2010-10-8 | 3044.23 | 3379.98 | 3379.98 | 3.380 | 294.97 |
2010-9-1 | 2884.04 | 2935.57 | 2935.57 | 2.936 | 339.63 |
2010-8-2 | 2917.27 | 2903.19 | 2903.19 | 2.903 | 343.42 |
2010-7-1 | 2526.07 | 2868.85 | 2868.85 | 2.869 | 347.53 |
2010-6-1 | 2744.16 | 2563.07 | 2563.07 | 2.563 | 388.99 |
2010-5-4 | 3019.45 | 2773.26 | 2773.26 | 2.773 | 359.50 |
2010-4-1 | 3391.94 | 3067.36 | 3067.36 | 3.067 | 325.04 |
2010-3-1 | 3324.42 | 3345.61 | 3345.61 | 3.346 | 298.00 |
2010-2-1 | 3152.71 | 3281.67 | 3281.67 | 3.282 | 303.81 |
2010-1-4 | 3535.23 | 3204.16 | 3204.16 | 3.204 | 311.16 |
2009-12-1 | 3560.83 | 3575.68 | 3575.68 | 3.576 | 278.83 |
2009-11-2 | 3392.8 | 3511.67 | 3511.67 | 3.512 | 283.91 |
2009-10-1 | 3004.8 | 3280.37 | 3280.37 | 3.280 | 303.93 |
2009-9-1 | 2843.7 | 3004.8 | 3004.8 | 3.005 | 331.80 |
2009-8-3 | 3787.03 | 2830.27 | 2830.27 | 2.830 | 352.26 |
2009-7-1 | 3237.9 | 3734.62 | 3734.62 | 3.735 | 266.96 |
2009-6-1 | 2858.34 | 3166.47 | 3166.47 | 3.166 | 314.86 |
2009-5-1 | 2622.93 | 2759.71 | 2759.71 | 2.760 | 361.27 |
2009-4-1 | 2548.22 | 2622.93 | 2622.93 | 2.623 | 380.11 |
2009-3-2 | 2164.67 | 2507.79 | 2507.79 | 2.508 | 397.56 |
2009-2-2 | 2057.06 | 2140.49 | 2140.49 | 2.140 | 465.78 |
2009-1-5 | 1882.96 | 2032.68 | 2032.68 | 2.033 | 490.49 |
2008-12-1 | 1864.2 | 1817.72 | 1817.72 | 1.818 | 548.49 |
2008-11-3 | 1653.54 | 1829.92 | 1829.92 | 1.830 | 544.83 |
2008-10-6 | 2128.7 | 1663.66 | 1663.66 | 1.664 | 599.28 |
2008-9-1 | 2309.17 | 2243.66 | 2243.66 | 2.244 | 444.36 |
2008-8-1 | 2840.79 | 2391.64 | 2391.64 | 2.392 | 416.87 |
2008-7-1 | 2698.35 | 2805.21 | 2805.21 | 2.805 | 355.41 |
2008-6-2 | 3625.83 | 2791.82 | 2791.82 | 2.792 | 357.11 |
2008-5-1 | 3959.12 | 3611.33 | 3611.33 | 3.611 | 276.08 |
2008-4-1 | 3582.85 | 3959.12 | 3959.12 | 3.959 | 251.82 |
2008-3-3 | 4790.74 | 3790.53 | 3790.53 | 3.791 | 263.02 |
2008-2-1 | 4571.94 | 4674.55 | 4674.55 | 4.675 | 213.28 |
2008-1-1 | 5338.27 | 4620.4 | 4620.4 | 4.620 | 215.78 |
2007-12-3 | 4772.67 | 5338.27 | 5338.27 | 5.338 | 186.76 |
2007-11-1 | 5605.23 | 4737.41 | 4737.41 | 4.737 | 210.45 |
2007-10-1 | 5580.81 | 5688.54 | 5688.54 | 5.689 | 175.26 |
2007-9-3 | 5419.17 | 5580.81 | 5580.81 | 5.581 | 178.65 |
2007-8-1 | 4290.48 | 5296.81 | 5296.81 | 5.297 | 188.23 |
2007-7-2 | 3757.66 | 4460.56 | 4460.56 | 4.461 | 223.51 |
2007-6-1 | 3803.95 | 3764.08 | 3764.08 | 3.764 | 264.87 |
2007-5-8 | 3686.03 | 3927.95 | 3927.95 | 3.928 | 253.82 |
2007-4-2 | 2850.11 | 3558.71 | 3558.71 | 3.559 | 280.16 |
2007-3-1 | 2473.54 | 2781.78 | 2781.78 | 2.782 | 358.40 |
2007-2-1 | 2395.17 | 2544.57 | 2544.57 | 2.545 | 391.81 |
2007-1-4 | 2067.09 | 2385.33 | 2385.33 | 2.385 | 417.97 |
2006-12-1 | 1729.22 | 2041.05 | 2041.05 | 2.041 | 488.47 |
2006-11-1 | 1479.41 | 1714.36 | 1714.36 | 1.714 | 581.56 |
2006-10-9 | 1436.07 | 1464.47 | 1464.47 | 1.464 | 680.79 |
2006-9-1 | 1318.1 | 1403.27 | 1403.27 | 1.403 | 710.48 |
2006-8-1 | 1282.06 | 1338.69 | 1338.69 | 1.339 | 744.76 |
2006-7-3 | 1420.33 | 1294.33 | 1294.33 | 1.294 | 770.28 |
2006-6-1 | 1402.88 | 1393.96 | 1393.96 | 1.394 | 715.23 |
2006-5-8 | 1218.44 | 1365.45 | 1365.45 | 1.365 | 730.16 |
2006-4-3 | 1079.32 | 1172.35 | 1172.35 | 1.172 | 850.43 |
2006-3-1 | 1056.62 | 1061.09 | 1061.09 | 1.061 | 939.60 |
2006-2-6 | 1033.23 | 1053.01 | 1053.01 | 1.053 | 946.81 |
2006-1-4 | 941.428 | 1009.6 | 1009.6 | 1.010 | 987.52 |
2005-12-1 | 873.067 | 923.451 | 923.451 | 0.923 | 1079.65 |
2005-11-1 | 872.865 | 873.825 | 873.825 | 0.874 | 1140.96 |
2005-10-10 | 907.321 | 876.282 | 876.282 | 0.876 | 1137.76 |
2005-9-1 | 944.559 | 917.392 | 917.392 | 0.917 | 1086.78 |
2005-8-1 | 891.607 | 927.916 | 927.916 | 0.928 | 1074.45 |
2005-7-1 | 859.494 | 888.164 | 888.164 | 0.888 | 1122.54 |
2005-6-1 | 837.532 | 878.686 | 878.686 | 0.879 | 1134.65 |
2005-5-9 | 909.174 | 855.946 | 855.946 | 0.856 | 1164.79 |
| | | | 54043.44 | |
总收益 | 总投入 | 收益率 | | | |
259678.75 | 120000 | 116.40% | | | |
| | 折合年收益 | 8.03% | |
10年之中,我们经历了股市6000点的光辉岁月。结果一点也不让我意外。我们总共投资了12万。现在的市值25万9.折合年收益8.03%。一个完美的年收益,几乎和教科书一样标准。需要注意:1、你几乎没有花费任何脑筋,只需要设置好。就可以坐等社会发展带来的收获。2、1000块的月投资可能不会对你的生活产生不良影响。3、持续10年的8%的年收益几乎没有那个基金经理可以做到。让我们开始定投吧!
所有数据来自雅虎财经。https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=000300.SS&a=03&b=8&c=2005&d=04&e=21&f=2015&g=m