杰弗里·萨克斯和约翰·米尔斯海默意见分歧的地方

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls&t=75s
2024年8月15日
杰弗里·萨克斯的世界观与约翰·米尔斯海默等现实主义者的世界观有何不同？

杰弗里·萨克斯认为和平与国际合作至关重要且可以实现。他和约翰·米尔斯海默的不同之处在于，他认为在政府无政府关系中，悲剧是不可避免的。他的观点是，由于无政府世界中存在如此多的不安全因素，大国不仅必然会相互争斗，而且还会争夺主导地位。如果两个国家争夺主导地位，那么一个赢，一个输。这是一个零和博弈，或者说是负和博弈。事实上，他的书名《大国政治的悲剧》暗示了一场负和博弈，在这种博弈中，斗争不断，在某种意义上，灾难随之而来。

约翰因准确的预测而备受赞誉，比如他预测美国对俄罗斯的外交政策，特别是在乌克兰的外交政策将导致我们走向对抗。他因此备受赞誉，因为他在 2014 年就非常清楚这一点，并且从那时起就一直如此。他还做出了一个更有力的预测，早在 2001 年、2002 年他的巨著出版时，他就说过：“美国和中国的关系是良性的，但随着中国继续发展，它们将发展为敌对关系。”

大国政治的悲剧

https://www.amazon.ca/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics/dp/0393349276
作者：约翰·米尔斯海默 (John J. Mearsheimer) 2014 年 4 月 8 日

这本关于大国行为的经典论文的更新版深入探讨了可能主导 21 世纪国际关系的问题：中国能否和平崛起？约翰·米尔斯海默以清晰、雄辩的散文解释了为什么答案是否定的：崛起的中国将寻求主宰亚洲，而决心继续保持世界唯一地区霸权的美国将不遗余力地阻止这种情况发生。大国政治的悲剧是不可避免的。

Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls&t=75s
2024年8月15日
How does Jeffrey Sachs' worldview differ from that of realists like John Mearsheimer?

Jeffrey Sachs believes that peace and international cooperation are vital and achievable. And the difference between him and John Mearsheimer is that he believes that in the anarchic relations of governments, tragedy is inevitable. His view is that because there is so much insecurity in an anarchic world, great powers are bound not only to jostle with each other but to struggle for dominance. And if two are struggling for dominance, one wins and one loses. The setup is a zero-sum, or I would say a negative-sum game. In fact, the title of his book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, suggests a negative-sum game where the struggle goes on and in some sense, a disaster ensues.

John gets a lot of credit for accurate predictions, like his predictions that US foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and specifically in Ukraine would lead us to confrontation. He gets a lot of credit for that because he was very clear on that point in 2014 and has been clear on that ever since. And he also made a prediction, which is in a way even more powerful, that back in 2001, 2002 when his great book was published, he said, "The relations between the US and China are benign, but as China continues to grow, they will develop into hostility."

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics 

https://www.amazon.ca/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics/dp/0393349276
by John J. Mearsheimer (Author) April 8 2014

The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.