风萧萧_Frank
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“现在的中国太强大了”美打压无效 挪威学者提醒中国：美想要战争。勿落入“台湾陷阱”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti6V_dQj9hg
Glenn Diesen 挪威东南大学教授中天新闻 2024年9月26日
在西方，至少在过去十年里，我们一直预测中国和俄罗斯会开始争夺中亚，但他们并没有这样做，他们试图满足彼此的利益，没有人寻求对冲资金，因此他们可以避免零和博弈的安全方法，所以我认为美国已经尝试了一切，现在他们做了很多破坏中国科技产业的事情，你知道，通过芯片带，鼓励其他国家与中国脱钩，他们可以对交通走廊施加压力，获得融资，再次有很多美国已经做到了，但这些都不起作用，他们本可以在 10 年或 20 年前做到这一点，但现在中国太大了，为时已晚，俄罗斯的巨大变化发生在 2014 年，当时发生了两件事，一是他们拥有的大欧洲倡议已经失败，二是出现了另一种模式，所以重要的是要意识到，在过去的 300 年里，自彼得大帝以来，俄罗斯一直向西方寻求现代化，自 18 世纪初以来，西方是主要技术所在，西方也主宰着海洋，因为主要的交通走廊可以物理连接世界，这也是世界金融连通性的领域，所以他们拥有一切，这就是为什么俄罗斯融入追求繁荣和现代化的国际经济体系总是意味着要欧洲化俄罗斯，使其更加欧洲化，嗯，现在一直有人对此感到担忧，尤其是那些读过这些的人，19 世纪的学者认为，也许俄罗斯应该更多地向东方看，冷战结束后，俄罗斯继续向西方看，他们想与西方和平相处，他们想实现经济现代化，所以他们开始推行非常亲西方的政策，然而他们发现，这个大欧洲被否定了，这就是北约扩张所代表的，我们将建立一个没有俄罗斯的欧洲，而没有俄罗斯的欧洲很快就变成了一个反对俄罗斯的欧洲，因为我们不得不竞争新的分界线，而不是消除它们，所以问题一直在积累，2014 年，一切都破裂了，因为在那之前，俄罗斯的许多人认为，也许我们可以逐步与西方融合，但当西方领导乌克兰政府时，这是一个明确的信号，乌克兰不会成为一座桥梁，而会成为一条前线，当俄罗斯占领克里米亚，以保护其黑海舰队时，所有的制裁都来了，甚至少数那些仍然想追求更大欧洲的俄罗斯人必须认识到，这是一个乌托邦，它永远不会发生，而同时发生的事情，在 2013 年的同一时间，正是在这个时候，中国才真正开始为替代性的国际经济体系奠定基础，也就是中国人开始推动这个“一带一路”倡议，他们开始更公开地宣称要在世界上占据技术领导地位，中国开始推进这个新的金融机构，无论是亚洲基础设施投资银行，还是希望将其货币国际化，我们看到 SEO 或砖块代表着一个基于多极化的世界秩序，在这个秩序中，大国寻求协调彼此的利益，而不是追求统治地位和全球享乐，认识到这一点非常重要，因为在西方，我们至少在过去十年里，我们一直预测中国和俄罗斯会开始争夺中亚，但他们没有，他们试图满足彼此的利益，没有人寻求对冲资金，因此他们可以避免危机，采取一些安全措施，因此，东方突然出现了一个新的体系，因此，对于俄罗斯来说，这是历史上非常重要的时期，当它走向东方时，它注意到自己没有同样的历史包袱，没有遇到同样的敌意，甚至中国是那里最大的国家，而不是俄罗斯，这实际上经常对俄罗斯有利，所以我认为 2014 年是一个真正的主要时代，因为这是欧洲真正关上俄罗斯大门的时候，东方打开了一扇新的大门，那就是中国，而正是在那时，更大的欧洲欧亚大陆的野心才真正开始向前发展，俄罗斯的主要问题一直是它与西方之间存在不利的不对称相互依存关系，所以我们经常说国家之间的相互依存是好的，它在某种程度上创造了和平，因为在所有相互依存的关系中，一方总是会更加依赖另一方，所以这是与人以及现在的国家，当你有巨大的不对称时，一方可以利用这一点从另一方那里获取政治权力，所以让我们举个例子，西方和俄罗斯之间的关系，如果俄罗斯 90% 的贸易依赖西方，而西方 3% 的贸易依赖俄罗斯，这是不对称的，现在西方对俄罗斯的依赖程度远低于俄罗斯对西方的依赖程度，西方可以利用这一点来获取政治让步，这就是我们看到的，我们看到俄罗斯在 ITS 技术、交通走廊、银行货币、支付系统、保险系统等方面都依赖西方，欧洲唯一真正依赖俄罗斯的是能源，我们尽一切努力减少这种依赖，以实现最大程度的相互依赖，因为在任何相互依赖的关系中，你都会获得一些影响力，但如果你拥有不对称的相互依赖，你就会失去一些自主权，你保持了自主权，你就会获得对另一方的影响力，所以这是俄罗斯的问题，这是建立俄罗斯的条件没有俄罗斯的欧洲，你怎么能拥有一个没有俄罗斯的欧洲，而我们却把欧洲大陆上最大的国家留给俄罗斯呢？如果他们想拥有一些政治自主权和安全，并在多极世界中扮演一个独立的权力极点，他们需要多样化他们的伙伴关系，是的，他们需要在关键领域拥有一些战略自主权，例如技术能源，但他们需要多样化伙伴关系，而这正是他们未能做到的，所以理想情况下，俄罗斯应该与中国非常接近，但也要与印度、伊朗、韩国、日本以及欧盟保持密切联系，以便拥有尽可能多的合作伙伴，这样就没有人可以欺负它，所以这种对西方的过度依赖真的是我所说的赤裸裸的，这对俄罗斯非常有害，我认为俄罗斯人会有些担心，不要在东方重演这种情况，换句话说，俄罗斯向东方的转向不能简单地变成向中国的转向，因为中国要强大得多至少在经济上比俄罗斯强，所以它不想陷入这样的伙伴关系：95% 的贸易依赖于中国，而 2% 的中国贸易依赖于俄罗斯，因为那将是一种非常不平衡的关系，所以这意味着俄罗斯必须使其伙伴关系多样化，是的，不仅要与中国融合，还要关注印度、伊朗、韩国和世界其他国家，对俄罗斯人来说，非常愉快的经历是，中国对此表示同意，他们没有破坏它，这对俄罗斯人来说是新鲜事，因为每当西方国家与乌克兰、中亚、土耳其、亚美尼亚打交道时，一个关键目标始终是将它们与俄罗斯脱钩，切断它们之间的联系，而中国人从来没有这样做过，部分原因是，如果中国想重建一个中国的对冲基金来取代美国的对冲基金，那么中国对多极体系感到满意他们会试图切断俄罗斯与其他国家的联系，使其处于从属地位，但俄罗斯并没有这样做，这让俄罗斯人非常放心，这也是我们看到多极体系出现的一个迹象，是的，中国是领先国家，但它并不寻求主宰其他国家。我十年前写了这本书，这是俄罗斯对大欧亚大陆的地缘经济战略。我曾指出，这种软平衡必须到位，才能使大欧亚大陆的一体化持久，但目前，他们正在深入参与与中国的伙伴关系，他们对此感到非常满意，因为他们可以保持政治自主权，所以十年前这本书并没有受到人们的欢迎，人们说这种权宜之计永远不会实现美元化，这几乎是科幻小说，但我们现在看到了十年后的今天嗯，这就是事情发展的方向，因为各国将寻求我所说的依赖平衡，这也成为一种陈词滥调，你知道一个霸主或一个领导大国不会和平地将权力移交给下一个霸主，嗯，通常会有冲突，嗯，我认为美国已经尝试了一切，现在他们做了很多来破坏中国的技术产业，你知道，通过芯片带，鼓励其他国家与中国脱钩，他们可以再次对交通走廊的融资渠道施加压力，美国做了很多事情，但这些都没有奏效，嗯，他们可能在10年或20年前就可以这样做，但现在中国太大了，为时已晚，所以这就是为什么美国现在倾向于军事化竞争，这就是为什么拥有一个代理人很重要，不一定是台湾，也可能是菲律宾，因为你知道，他们是伟大的帝国，他们尽量不派自己的军队去战斗如果你不想用自己的军队与俄罗斯或中国这样的大国作战，那么这将是毁灭性的，他们可能会失败，并可能升级为核战争，所以最好与代理人作战，如果你要与俄罗斯人作战，那么显然乌克兰将是他们现在最好的代理人，与中国人作战，是的，你会使用台湾或菲律宾，这是美国人没有派遣武器的地方，鼓励与北京建立更敌对的关系，这就是美国人在一个中国原则下的发展方向，美国人应该将自己限制在与台湾的经济和文化联系上，相反，我们现在看到他们正在派遣他们的高级政治家去那里，这是一个突破口，他们正在派遣军事教练去那里，这是一座桥梁，他们正在一步一步地试图拆除它，所以要求更多的代表权在联合国等国际机构中为台湾争取主权，这实际上开始赋予它主权国家的地位，这是不正确的，因为我们与中国的和平与稳定是基于这样一个原则，即只有一个中国，台湾是中国的一部分，如果我们试图放弃这一点，那么就会有战争，如果对台湾使用武力不符合中国的利益，我认为中国非常有信心地认为，随着经济增长，它将能够通过和平方式整合台湾，经济连通性，所以你知道，也许在等待更有利的政府，所以我认为中国会使用武力的唯一原因是，如果美国人推动台湾分裂，我认为这是中国的红线，中国人现在应该小心，因为如果美国人正在寻找代理人战争，就像他们对乌克兰所做的那样，因为请记住在乌克兰也发生了同样的事情，俄罗斯人进入了乌克兰，因为美国破坏了所有的和平协议，他们带着军队进入了乌克兰，这是无端的入侵，在他们试图入侵的第一天，他们就联系了乌克兰人开始进行和平谈判，他们也确实进行了，但后来美国人来破坏了谈判，因为他们想要战争，他们选择了战争，这就是为什么这是一个呃，应该小心，不要在台湾问题上陷入类似的陷阱，但中国和俄罗斯在过去 30 年里与华盛顿的关系不同，因为呃，中国的地位比俄罗斯更有利，他们在边境上设立了军事封锁，逐渐扩大，他们从来没有被提供维持现状的机会，相反，他们不得不看到北约在他的边境上缓慢行进，其后果是相当可预测的，所以这往往使得俄罗斯有必要采取超水平发挥，真正展示自己的实力，甚至超出了它有能力采取的行动，现在中国的情况正好相反，中国没有军事封锁在边境上行进，中国试图不制造任何波澜，所以也被称为和平大米，只是试图不引起太多的关注，这会让占主导地位的嗯，美国帝国对中国的打击，试图将其推翻，这就是为什么我们看到中国和俄罗斯走上了不同的道路，但现在中国已经变得过于强大，让美国感到不安，所以现在他们也不得不公开露面，开始反击，这就是我们所看到的皇家关怀
"現在的中國太強大了"美打壓無效 挪威學者提醒中國:美想要戰爭.勿落入"台灣陷阱"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ti6V_dQj9hg
Glenn Diesen Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway中天新闻 2024年9月26日
in the west we at least for the past
decade we always predicted that the
Chinese and Russians would start to
fight over Central Asia but they don't
they attempt to accommodate each other's
interest no one is seeking hedge money
and thus they can avoid the Zero Sum
approach to security so and um I think
the United States have tried everything
now they did a lot to sabotage China's
technological Industries uh you know
with the chip bands uh encouraging other
countries to decouple from China uh they
can uh put put pressure on Transportation corridors access to
finance uh again there's a lot the
United States has done uh uh but none of
this is working uh it's they could have
done this maybe 10 or 20 years ago but
now China's too big it's too late the big change for Russia came in 2014 uh and there was two things that happened one uh the greater Europe
initiative they have they had died and
also an alternative uran uh format
emerged so it's important to realize
that for the past 300 years uh since
Peter the Great uh Russia always look
towards the West for modernization also
since the early 18th century uh in the
west is where the main Technologies were
the West also dominated the Seas as
where the main transportation corridors
are which can physically connect the
world uh was also this was the area of
financial uh connectivity of the world
so they had everything that this is why
Russia's integration into an international economic system pursuing
prosperity and modernity always meant to
europeanize Russia to make it more more
European um now there's always been some
concerns about this especially those who
read dovi all this 19th century Scholars
arguing that perhaps Russia should look
more towards the east uh any after the
Cold War uh Russia continued this tradition of looking to the West they
wanted to make peace with the West they
wanted to modernize their economies so
they began to then pursue this uh very
Pro Western policies uh however what
they found out was that this greater
Europe was denied that's what NATO expansion represented that we were going
to create a Europe without Russia and a
Europe without Russia quickly became a
Europe against Russia simply because we
then had to compete over where the new
dividing lines would be instead of removing them so so the the problems
always built up and in 2014 this is when everything broke
because until then many people in Russia
thought well perhaps we can uh have an
incremental integration with the west
but when the West toled the government
in Ukraine this was the clear signal
that the Ukraine would not be a bridge
but it would be a front line and when
Russia took Crimea uh in order to safeguard its Black Sea Fleet then and
all the sanctions came even the few
Russians who still wanted to pursue
greater Europe had to recognize this was
uh Utopia it wasn't was never going to
happen and what happened at the same
time exactly the same time in 20134 well this is when China really
began to lay the foundations for an
alternative International economic
system that is the Chinese began to push
this belt and Road initiative um they
started to more openly assert ambition
to take technological leadership in the
world China began to advance this new
financial institutions be it the Asian
infrastructure Investment Bank uh
looking to internationalize its currency
we see that SEO or bricks it represents
a world order based on multipolarity in
which the great Powers they seek to
harmonize interest with each other
rather than pursue the dominance and
Global hedony and this is very important
to recognize because in the west we we
at least for the past decade we always
predicted that the Chinese and Russians
would start to fight over Central Asia
but they don't they attempt to accommodate each other's interest no one
is seeking hedge money and thus they can
avoid the seros some approach to
security so this so suddenly a new
system emerged in the East so this was
tremendously important time in history
for Russia when it goes to the east it
notices that it doesn't have the same
historical baggage it doesn't meet the
same hostility and even the fact that
China is the biggest country there not
Russia it actually works often to to
Russia's Advantage so I think 2014 was
really the main era because this is when
uh Europe really slammed the door in the
face of Russia and a new door opened in
the East which was China and that's when
this greater Euro Eurasia ambition
really began to move forward the main
problem for Russia has always been it
had unfavor able uh asymmetrical interdependence with the West so we
often say that interdependence between
nations is good it creates peace well
yes to some extent because in all
interdependent relationships one will
always be more dependent on the other so
uh this goes with people as well as
States now when you have huge asymmetries then one side can use that
to extract political power from the rest
so let's say for example relationship
between the collective West and Russia
if uh 90% of Russian trade is dependent
on the west while 3% of the West Trade
is dependent on Russia this is asymmetrical now the West has a it's
much less dependent on Russia than
Russia is on the west and the West can
use this to extract political concessions now uh and and and this is
what we saw we saw that Russia being
dependent on the west for ITS Technologies access to Transportation
corridors Banks currencies Payment
Systems Insurance systems uh everything
the only thing really Europe was
dependent on Russia was energy and we
did everything we could to reduce this
to have Max maximized interdependence
because in any interdependent
relationship you get some influence but
you lose some autonomy if you have
asymmetrical interdependence you
maintain your autonomy and you get
influence over the other so so this is
the problem for Russia this was the
condition for creating a Russia a Europe
without Russ without Russia how can you
have a Europe where we leave out the
largest country on the continent for
Russia if they want to have some
political autonomy and security and act
as an independent uh pole of power in a
multi-polar world they need to diversify
their Partnerships yes they need some
strategic autonomy in key sectors for
example Technology Energy but they need
to diversify Partnerships and this is
what they fail to do so ideally Russia
would you know be very close with China
but also India Iran Korea Japan but also
the EU us to to have as many partners as
possible so no one can bully it uh so
this excessive dependence on the west is
really uh the akake I I I would refer to
which was uh very damaging for Russia
what what I argued is that the Russians
will be somewhat concerned not to
recreate this in the east in other words
Russia's pivot to the east can't simply
become a pivot to China why well because
China is much much more powerful at
least economically than than Russia so
it doesn't want to get stuck in a
partnership where again 95% of his trade
is depend on China and you know 2% of
Chinese trade is depend on Russia
because that would be a very uneven
relationship so uh so this means Russia
really has to diversify its Partnerships
yeah so not just integrate with China
but also look a bit to India Iran Korea
and also the rest of the world and uh
what what has been a very pleasant
experience for the Russians is that
China is okay with it they're not
sabotaging it and this is something new
to the Russians because whenever Western
countries have deal with you know Ukraine Central Asia
Turkey Armenia a key objective is always
to decouple them from the Russians to
sever ties between them the Chinese have
never done this and part of the reason
is because China is happy with the
multi-polar system if China wanted to
recreate a Chinese hedge money to
replace an American one they would have
tried to cut Russia's tie from other
states and made it subordinate but it's
not doing this and this is what is very
reassuring to the Russians and this is
also an indicate indicator why we're
seeing a multi-polar system emerge where
yes China is the leading state but it's
not seeking to dominate others I wrote
this book a decade ago it's Russia's
geoeconomic strategy for greater Eurasia
where I kind of pointed out that this
soft balancing has to has to be in place
in order for the integration or greater
Eurasia to be durable but at this moment
they they're getting deeply involved
with the Chinese partnership and they're
very comfortable with it because uh they
can maintain their political autonomy so
again 10 years ago this book didn't
really wasn't received that well people
said this marriage of convenience they
never going to be any dollarization this
was almost science fiction but we see 10
years later now uh this is what this is
the direction things are going because
States will seek what I call a balance
of dependence well it's also become a
cliche that you know one heon or one
leading power doesn't hand over the
mantle peacefully to the next one uh
there's usually conflict and um I think the United
States have tried everything now they
did a lot to sabotage China's
technological Industries uh you know
with the chip bands uh encouraging other
countries to decouple from China uh they
can uh put pressure on Transportation
corridors access to finance again
there's a lot that the United States has
done uh uh but none of this is working
uh it's they could have done this maybe
10 or 20 years ago but now China's too
big it's too late so this is why the
United States is now leaning towards
militarizing the Rivalry instead and
that's why it's important with a with a
proxy well it doesn't have to be Taiwan
it could also be Philippines because uh
uh it's um you know great Empires they
try not to fight with with their own
troops also if you don't want to fight a
a huge uh huge great power like Russia
or China with your own military
it can it will be devastating they
probably would lose and it could
escalate into nuclear war so it's better
to fight with proxies and uh if you so
if you're going to fight the Russians
then obviously the for them Ukraine will
be the best the best proxy to fight now
with the Chinese uh yeah you would use
Taiwan or Philippines most likely which
is where the Americans are not sending
their weapons encouraging more
antagonistic relationship with Beijing
this is what the direction the Americans
are going uh under the one China principle
The Americans should limit themselves to
economic and cultural ties to Taiwan
instead we're seeing now that they're
sending their top politicians there
which is a breach they're sending
military trainers there which is a
bridge and they're so they're step step
by step uh trying to dismantle it so
asking for more representation for
Taiwan in international institutions
such as the UN so effect beginning to
give it status of a sovereign country
which is not correct because uh our our
peace and stability with China is based
on this principle that there is one
China Taiwan is a part of China and if
we try to abandon this then there will
be war and if and it's not in China's
interest to use military force against
Taiwan I think China is quite
confidently sees it as it economy grows
it will able to integrate Taiwan more
through peaceful means uh economic
connectivity so um so you know waiting
for more favorable government perhaps so
the only reason why I think China would
use military force is if the Americans
are pushing for Taiwan secession I think
that's the red line for China now the
Chinese should be careful because if the
Americans are looking for proxy war like
they did with Ukraine because keep in
mind in Ukraine the same thing happened
the Russians went in because America
sabotaged all peace agreements they went
in with the military which was this you
know unprovoked Invasion and on the
first day they attempted to they reached
out to the ukrainians to start with
peace negotiations which they did and
then the Americans came and sabotaged it
because they wanted a war and they chose
a war and this is why it's a uh one
should be careful not to walk into a
similar trap over Taiwan but China and
Russia has been have different uh
different relationship with Washington
over the past 30 years because uh China
had a more favorable position that the
Russians they had a military block
gradually expanding on their border they
were never offered a status quo instead
they had to see NATO March slowly on his
borders uh with the repercussions being
quite predictable H so this often made
it necessary for Russia to punch above
its weight to really Flex its muscles
Beyond even what it had the capability
to match with action now China was a bit
of the opposite favorable there was no
military block marching on his borders
it tried to not create any waves so what
what's also called a peaceful rice just
uh trying not to yeah create too much uh
attention draw too much attention to
itself which would make the dominant
well the American Empire strike against
China try to you know knock it down so
this is why we saw the different paths
by the Chinese and Russians but now of
course China's become too powerful for
America's comfort so now they kind of
have to come out of the closet as well
and start to push back which is what
we're seeing fore Royal care
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