苏起 中美競爭下"台灣角色"? 蘇起"一句話"斷言真實處境

 

台北論壇基金會

https://www.taipeiforum.org.tw/

 

苏起，中国国民党中评会主席团主席，台北论坛基金会董事长。1949年10月1日生于台湾台中市。1971年台湾政治大学外交系毕业，1975年获美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学硕士学位，1984年获美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士学位及苏联研究硕士学位。

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first of all I'd like to thank uh uh Paul and c and my good friend uh uh

prime minister J J for inviting me here to share the podium with uh my old

friend K to share the podium with my old friend Kure uh I owe him a a belated

thanks for hosting me a lunch uh some years back when I visited Singapore and

gave a speech at Leong y school he was the thing at the time and uh and I knew

was in he was he once served as a as a president of the security Council in un

so I ask him what what impressed you most during your tenure there and he

said three words so I I thought okay what are those three words he said power

power power and I put that quote in my book uh so uh even though we never talk about this but I believe he and I belong to this same school of realism in the study of international relations so when the uh especially when geogra geopolitical rivalry is uh tensing up I I think uh realism uh is is something that we

should really uh uh keep in mind once again anyway uh I'm I only have 40

minutes and uh 1 minute is gone I'm going to talk about uh instead of the US

election I I'll get into that but uh but I I'll mainly concentrate on the role of Taiwan in us us uh China uh competition uh competition is euphor ISM actually uh in my view it's more confrontation than than comp competition but anyway uh we live in Taiwan and uh and Taiwan as we all know will bear the brunt if anything goes wrong between us in China so we have to we have to pay more attention to that and my my um my experiences with uh giving speeches is that uh after one week people will forget one half of your speech after one month they forget everything except your joke and I happen to be not good person you know cracking jokes so so I prepared uh a written script for you and it's in your envelope uh in you know you you may want to look at it uh or and or look at the PowerPoint that I prepare

separately okay uh this is the contents I'll take I'll talk about taiwan's role there are several roles here not just one uh in the old days uh up until uh the end of myel administration tail wagon two dogs secondly now it's bone of of contention Taiwan is the bone of contention between two dogs and the third row which is uh worries me most is taiwan's the only trigger only trigger for us China military conflict and why uh Untold the story of Taiwan there's a great misunderstanding uh in the US particularly about Taiwan and the F fifth is uh the triggering that is uh my humble proposal for some possibility to to uh deescalate the tension here okay the tail wagon two dogs I don't this is history I don't want to go in detail you can access my uh prepared uh script uh anyway it's a actually this is the uh subtitle of my my previous English language book published in 209 or 2010 uh Taiwan at the time was the tail and we could whack two dogs because uh Taiwan went through democratization Taiwan economic miracle and uh moderation with moderate relations with China and all that so us and China big great attention to us and Taiwan took initiative a number of initiative that changed the cross regulations often times I mean often times catching the US and China by surprise and forcing them to react sometimes favorably sometimes harshly examples examples oh okay examples are in my in my uh in my prepared speech uh you you can see the the uh special relations special state to state relations by BYU Den's Coronel visit uh 92 consensus or or whatever I mean these These Are all uh taiwan's initiative uh we talk about uh over over lunch uh this this morning and the the white white gloves that that is how Taiwan and China could sit down and uh negotiate on a variety of issues so that's also taiwan's initiative taiwan's invention also uh tan also were you know one country on each side and all that and uh myo diplomatic truths what y sh been and EA and uh a number of other things so so all the pre uh three presidents uh during their their terms uh they they they were very proactive on on cross street and uh that was unusual because uh the the taale could wag not just one dog but two dogs that's most than usual in my understanding of international relations now that was history uh fast forward to the present time present decade since president Chan uh assumed the presidency Taiwan became a Bor of contention because Taiwan leaned 100% I mean 100% not 90 not 95 but 100% to the US side and zero% to China uh as far as I know um this is not a state secret uh Taiwan at the time during marango ter time we had uh 20 some 20 some uh channels of communication with with China imagine we two Sid signed 23 agreements so each agreement is to be followed by a channel because Ministry to Ministry uh the guy could pick up the phone and call the other side hey what's going on here and we have this problem and uh and do that uh you know we had that Pro we had that kind of channel so uh uh uh I'm sure you still remember the uh I I think this this febrary uh two fishing

one one fishing boats you know we uh incident and one of and one of our Gman

Gman uh soldiers went out fishing and were caught by by by China and uh and uh retained detained for several months I mean in in those days myel years I mean this kind of question will not even pop up because one phone call or something will will will get rid of them so so right now because Taiwan leaned Al to to CH to us and zero communication with China all 20 some channels of communication were cut and uh nothing gets done so so when you have no conversation no discussion with the other side you always both sides always assume the worst and you see a ghost actually there's only Shadow you always assume the worst so Taiwan assumed the the worst of intention on China China assumed the worst intention on on Taiwan because there's no no communication so so so and uh Taiwan taiwan's uh size taiwan's uh uh Power uh shrinks uh during this period we used to be we used to be uh you know in early 90s we used to be one quarter some say onethird of China's GDP the entire China GDP and uh after Leno step stepped down Taiwan was about uh 20% of China's GDP and uh and now Taiwan is only 4% or maybe some say even three three 3% of China GDP so Taiwan doesn't count that much uh in one year China's China's growth uh China's growth now the five five or six% a year uh it's slowing down

but but but they can easily get over 4% grow a year if that means that would

mean China can grow a Taiwan in one year so in other words China's weight is is

is is is going down so China used to pay a lot of attention to taiwan's elections

my standing is not anymore go taian Taiwan Affairs office they pay attention

to taiwan's election but they really don't care that much not as much as before it because it doesn't make that much difference not of course another issue is that the position of each party but overall taiwan's weight has going down but Taiwan so us importance has gone up so China focused their eyes solely on the us and and only slightly toward toward Taiwan but this shifting of taiwan's position in the military in the balance us China balance uh has three consequences one is heightening China's sense of urgency of uh for unification because they used to think when they had communication with Taiwan when they had uh People to People exchanges they thought well we may not marry you now but we will Marry You Someday so they had some hope they had some hope but but with Taiwan citing completely 100% to the US side China lost that hope they their sense of urgency for reunification is heightened secondly uh taiwan's geopolitical value to both China and the US I mean uh Kure mentioned that explained that much better tonight do the third is heightening tsmc's strategic value uh tsmc become become the the tasty meat attached to the Bone it's not just the bone but there's some meat there so so uh I I when I thought thought about tsmc I thought about the old uh story in the old B Old Testament uh King Solomon and the baby the two mothers vying for one baby baby claiming that baby was hers so it took Solomon's wisdom to to solve the issue without splitting the baby and tsmc is the baby right now unfortunately there's no Solomon and uh actually worse than that worse than the bone Taiwan is also a trigger that what worries me most this is why I I'm probably one of the few uh people in Taiwan and in Taiwan who is all appear to be more always more worried than others because I think Taiwan is a trigger the Cold War uh not too long ago OCC kbo the US Deputy of state of SEC Secretary of State uh uh said this competition is not Cold War I totally I totally agree I totally agree with Kimbo uh but I think it's worse the competition is worse than Cold War because during the US Soviet Union Cold War there was no Taiwan there was no issue no country no part of territory that was so near and dear to either us and China or Soviet Union that they were willing to risk a war with another new nuclear superpower so us and USSR went through 17 years until M Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 without in even only during the Cuban crisis there was that risk of direct conflict between two superpowers until then only proxy wars or crisis Korean War uh two Taiwan Street crisis Wars in Middle East Hungarian Revolution and you name it quite a few during those 17 years Berlin crisis but there was no no threat of direct conflict but not so not so with this situation cuz Taiwan is so near and dear there's no buffer there's no buffer Taiwan is right here so near China and so dear to China not so dear to the US not so near to the US but to to China so Tai so because of the role the trigger Taiwan as a trigger the competition is structurally more dangerous than the old previous Cold War

unfortunately there are too many happy Trigger Happy Hawks in taipe I don't have the name names you know better in Washington and also in China all three capitals and no communication or very poor communication and worse and worse why I'm so worry because US policy is driven by misunderstanding of China Taiwan of course China has China also has problem understanding Taiwan but but not as as as as poorly as us I think us is really uh I think despite the AIT presence of AIT here despite all the the CIA work and all that I think the deep down uh they don't know really what's going on here uh the bias one bias one bias which covers everything is that the US people uh analysts government and Academia and media uh they tend to view Taiwan as part of the solution which is true I think Taiwan should be and could be part of solution but they don't realize Taiwan also part of the problem but there also three misperception one is that uh China alone change change change the status quo not Taiwan and not realizing Taiwan it's also Taiwan also changed the status quo and I think this is a this is

uh uh this this the consequences of this misperception is that the heightened

China fear of con containment Taiwan China uh us China collusion against

China us Taiwan collusion against China so China's fear is heightened secondly

in boding emboldening taiwan's pro-independence policy uh I I don't want to use the word pampering but that's I think that's practically the case practically the

case but at least people in Taiwan at least DPP Administration felt very safe

uh that us is is uh uh on our back so we don't have to worry about uh we don't have to do anything uh we don't have to reach out to China we don't have to do anything that that is uh conducive to reducing the tensand thirdly is the responsibility of management because Taiwan Taiwan sh off it's responsibility so or the responsibility management for entirely on Washington's shoulders unfortunately I think U not good for the for the US uh okay this is the first misperception second misperception is uh Taiwan people have the will to fight have the will to fight uh I I I have a lot of evidence I'm sure people here can can offer your own observation uh I think the general view in Taiwan is uh is uh there's no will to fight uh except the the government uh sponsored uh po public

opinion poll government always sponsor a poll that would say 70% of people are

willing to fight because when you get a phone call from somebody asking you if you are willing to fight your country you got a phone call I mean morally correct answer political correct answer is yes but in fact in fact No in fact no uh

uh evidence abound I I I put I put down some in the in the uh in the uh it's all

it's all open sources data I I I'm not in government anymore I don't have intelligence but just just open sources we we know that so the young people are uh espe the the young officers are severely lacking in our military forces especially in Air Force Air Force at the front line Air Force in the front line they will be the first to die and uh they were just just uh exhausted by by the uh now the only only aerial aial uh uh you know prc's uh uh penetration into our our our our our are space they and uh the pilots uh especially uh if I remember especially the the major uh major rank uh uh and uh Lieutenant major the the backbone the Squadron Squadron level Pilots are are quitting all mass and the young recruits are very few in very few uh and also the army army if if you go to any any any uh Army uh units uh you will find the um the company level uh company leader and platoon leaders are are are in in shortage great shortage so often times the master sergeant had to serve as the company leader and because of the lack of uh trained uh officers so the training of the soldiers now we have recruits we have one year conscript coming in the this training quality is also very

worrisome as far as I'm concerned uh also also uh I read one piece of news in

the newspaper that that we had uh probably a dozen uh young men and women

uh who went through training in West Point uh Virginia uh Military Institute

and uh and there down one in South Carolina and after they return to Taiwan they all of them quit except one all of them one doen all quit uh some of them uh quit before their time in other words they had to pay pay pay back the money uh

this this is you know this is not a picture this is not a picture of

uh of an army uh that armed forces that that's ready to fight but Americans don't know that Americans don't know that and uh sure we have some Elite troops uh I think our Marines are pretty good as far as I know but uh other than that I I I have have big question mark So anyway I think I think Americans are uh are not quite aware the the uh the Deep heart of the young people here they only come talk to people who are willing to talk and they will tell you political correct answers so this understanding misperception has uh three policy consequences one is the uh two one is the the uh uh uh the the policy policy design for Taiwan actually uh it's not it's not work very well because because Taiwan people are not like Ukraine uh people are powerless and uh they don't want to risk life they don't want to pay a cost for their security that's what it is and secondly again the burden of Defense

falling mostly on the US uh and Taiwan just pretending that we are preparing for

war pretending I'm I'm underlining pretending but actually we're not as I'm

sure you all know that the third uh misperception is Taiwan is a democracy

Taiwan is a democracy uh compared with China compared with some others but I

think right now Taiwan is moving away from democracy I would even call Taiwan

Taiwan is probably half democracy uh we have election uh sometimes Fair sometime not so fair uh it's free we have freedom of speech like what I'm doing now but unfortunately it's toothless it's Toothless in other words you can bark or with your heart's to your heart's content but you can't bite because you have no tooth no teeth that's what Freedom democracy is about why so why why freedom of freedom of speech is toothless because we have very authoritarian president most people don't know that i i i i u spent quite a few pages in my book about this about this uh this has uh this goes back to leenu's uh leenu constitutional Revision in 1997 according to uh my uh venerable uh Elder uh chenu uh

his Memoir he said in his memo he was the uh uh G National Assembly he was the chairperson of the National Assembly he said during the process of constitutional revision and uh kmt has it version everybody has version and all of sudden all of sudden uh one one day uh uh Yu slipped through his Aid uh his own personal copy to to chenu and ask him and the kmt uh caucus to to pass it

and he had to he he threatened to resign but but he didn't so so the so the uh

the Leen version personal version passed through the Constitutional process and

became the new constitution beginning in 1997 a new constitution

empower the our Republic of China's president as if Republic of China

president is a king or queen elected why because uh let me see if they okay here uh oh oh okay the details not here details am I am my prepared so because because in you know uh CH taiwan's President's power is is more powerful than than US president than British prime minister than Japanese pre Premier than everybody because he or she uh can appoint and fire any Premier any Minister any Vice Minister without consultation or confirmation by anyone in the US you have to talk with the senate in the prime minister Japan UK you have to consult your your your fellow fellow parliamentarian and and you can just fire and appoint Taiwan can Taiwan president can so Personnel power totally in his or her her hand and he or she doesn't have to show up in Le to debate policies

uh I mean you know all the democracies you have to in Taiwan you don't have to

you don't have to uh president Li Willi didn't Li before before he became president he said several times uh to told the rallies in interviews he said I will go

to Leen to deliver a a uh report to the nation before election after he won he

said no so the le as you know this this is still still going ongoing controversy

with Le Leen said oh well we pass we pass a Reform Act the president has to go to Leen to deliver a report and answer questions so so president Li mobilized the Constitutional Court which is 100% packed with DPP uh supporters so

so that that's my prediction it's not going to pass it's it's it's the

president Li will never go to def5 and then president never have to hold

press conferences uh fortunately president Li gave one but as you know president

chinan really really really ever gave press conference the longest record was

745 days 745 days over two years not a single press conference this is our

democracy so so with in other words the king and the queen can hide in his or

her office ruling the country appointing this and firing that and uh uh getting

this done if I don't have enough money I I I want a special budget so you can you

can use do all kinds of things it's practically king and queen and there's

no check and balance on the president so so and yet people in the West in the US

they don't understand it and they still eulogize praise Taiwan as as a democracy

vibrant democracy uh especially I'm sorry to say US Congress which is very distant from our domestic politics they they think they love Taiwan so much Taiwan is just pure democracy so in their eye Taiwan is a Taiwan is a uh Snow White being bullied by evil person in Beijing but actually they don't know what is Taiwan has the queen or King in Taiwan uh it's it's this misperception uh has positive consequences as well uh deeper oh I'm sorry this is not working uh uh can you help me oh no yeah okay uh the bottom three lines uh policy consequences uh if geopolitical rivalry geopolitical rival uh has happened many many times in history they could be managed of course some of them did turn into military

contest but but they could be married but if you turn that into a good and evil

struggle it it's less easier to manage the the the competition and worse is

that this uh practical king or queen this authoritarianism in Taiwan is uh is a

polarizing Taiwan Society even more and we we all we all know and division is

deeper and uh which make Taiwan less likely people less likely to join ranks

to uh during crisis or War okay what to do about it what to do

about it I I I I I hate to see Taiwan going to flames I hate to leave Taiwan

uh I want to spend the rest of my t my life here in Taiwan uh keep it the way it is so we have to find a way we have taian has to if we think of democracy you have to bear share fair share of managing the the crisis so my my uh my idea is that

Taiwan should uh what I call DET triggering or minus Taiwan we should

reduce taiwan's role in us China relations many other people the all the

Hogs are trying to highlight taiwan's role I think we should do the opposite

we should reduce taiwan's role uh us and China have plenty of things to argue

about plenty of things to fight over technology trade and finance and you

name it and South China Sea and whatever but I think they can do without

Taiwan and they should do without Taiwan if they do without Taiwan their competition can go on for years and decades no I don't know who's going to win yeah I I I I tend to agree with Kure that if you look at long run you know given the current situation you're forecasting linear fashion is going to to be like that China according to Ray Delio's recent report in July published in July two months ago uh in the next 10 years China's growth will average 4% % which is uh slower than the than current uh past past few years but us will average only 1.4 so the the trend is is definitely in China's favor uh but but they can do without Taiwan with without Taiwan they can afford to compete uh without fear of direct confrontation so how to do that uh three approaches uh I have always always been uh I've always favored the first approaches I I I put that clearly in my book but unfor knowing fully well that this is uh um how do you call it uh uh dead end it's a dead end uh DVP is not going to buy it and China for now is not going to buy it so cross TR trade dialogue is probably no way to go now starter so I I I think there's still slight chance of us China dialogue that's the only way to uh save Taiwan from forceful unification UT or living dangerously as now as now uh why there is a slight hope because I think uh you know we all discuss us uh us uh policy toward China and I I I totally agree with uh he he B he he put it very well it's it's it's emotional us uh US policy toward China is not uh he quote he quoted Kissinger several time in his book and his speech that us launched this new policy of competition with China uh it had a policy first without a strategy I I think it's so perceptive I totally agree and why it was such a rush because because us had more emotions than senses in the beginning because they were they they think they were caught by surprise by China surprise that China is rising so fast threatening to overtake uh us so so I think the best way best way to explain us uh uh us us uh uh a policy US policy consensus toward China uh despite their internal differences despite the partisan polarization the only way is this psychological model psychological model five stages of grief five stages of grief I think us is gripped and admired in stage one and stage two stage one denial that's not true that can be happening stage two anger anger they we we've been cheated we're being cheated by Chinese I can understand why the Americans feel this way I have many many good friends in in the US I I can I can remember I I I personally I I went through I I I went through uh uh my personal you know deliberation of this issue changed a bit in the 90s I was a firm believer in democracy in Taiwan of Taiwan and also I believe to some extent that taiwan's democracy could influence China but after visiting China several times uh after I left government I changed my mind I thought China was too big and Too

Proud to adopt the Western system of multi-party competition freedom of

speech and all that because the country was too big too diverse and they're too

proud to accept that system so I I personally thought well we I was wrong

in the '90s and the people of each country should think what's the best for

their their what what's the best system for for their own on their own uh no the

the system cannot be imported from abroad but I think uh I came to this

realization after a few visits I thought to my I bump into American Scholars I

and they they they continue to believe way so even now they felt that Chinese

cheat cheated them cheated them for believing that they could be

changed but I think Americans uh my good friends misled themselves I have good example my personal personal uh uh my wife is here she probably doesn't know I don't know if I told you about that uh in sometimes after year two year 2000 I had a good friend of my uh he's about 15 15 maybe 20 years of my senior a a a uh eminent American Scholar of political science in AI leag University whom I respected very much he visited he was visiting Taiwan and invited him I invited him to my home and uh at my home uh we have a we have a small room devoted to uh a uh Buddha uh uh Gua gu Pusa and uh ancestors so I burn incense my wife also we burn incense from time to time to pay our respect to the ancestors and to to Gua uh it became a you know habit but when the the good friend uh Professor I don't want to name his name he said he was so shocked he Sushi I mean after education in the US after all these years living in in in the west and traveling and you still doing this and I was more surprised than he that he would feel that way because so I I think this is the Chinese side he didn't see despite his years of immersion in Chinese studies he was he was a study of Chinese culture and and all that not politics but I I thought H it's uh it's it's it's it's uh this may explain why Americans are shocked because I think they fail to appreciate the depth of history and culture of the people in China as well as in in Taiwan so yes we are westernized but deep down we are Chinese and we try to mingle this two comfortably together but you cannot ask us to separate one entirely out of it it's impossible it's impossible so Americans are are deceiving are not deceiving but but they they are they are late uh uh uh late late Comer in realizing that China not system cannot be changed so but they still can't believe it and this is why the different parties still work together to to be anti-china uh but I think someday somehow I don't know how if they grow out of these two stages uh into the third stage they'll be ready to bargain this may be out of a crisis I hope not or internal changes in the US political changes or political debate inside the US which would slide the US in from stage one or two into stage three at that time the time would be ripe for negotiation I think China would be ready even though right now they say well Taiwan is their Internal Affairs they don't want they don't want America intervene but I think deep down they are willing to negotiate that's my hunch but the time may come but it takes uh takes uh two things one is uh one is uh uh uh Mutual recognition of the danger of conundrum conundrum uh secondly it takes a strong leader I don't know who whether a Harris or or Trump is would be the strong leader uh if one of them turned out to be then then he or she could overcome the opposition opposition at home and and reach reach a bargain and what the the there are three formats of the the the the bargain uh one is The Grand Design Grand bargain which involves many issues second is the interim agreement third is this Force communicate and if if any one of these three is to be reached the the tension will be reduced and they could they would continue to to do uh to to compete uh but without without Taiwan uh if if both options if China uh of course this this right now this uh this uh uh tension high level tension uh can continue procrastinate for some time but I doubt China or sh allow it to go on for long long time I seriously doubt it I seriously doubt it his age his uh political career and and the military balance everything as far as I know will give him a crunch on time so I will not be uh sit relaxed that this weekend have

a good life for for a long time to come so if we if we don't try explore these

two non forceful options uh then PRC would Fe would

believe that that that there's no hope for peace so there's always the last

resort which is not Unthinkable and and taiwan's role is

taiwan's role is minimal at this point because it's a geopolitical rivalry taiwan's Taiwan because we put ourselves 100% we put ourselves if Taiwan put ourselves somewhere like Japan or Korea I always say Taiwan should learn from Japan or Korea they are also moving toward anti-china but they always cut the Spectrum 90 10 80 20 70 30 not 100% zero not 100% zero Taiwan unfortunately put 100% Zero by doing that we forfeit I mean forfeit our historical privilege this is the only crack in our history taiwan's history centuries history only crack when Taiwan could manage help manage not manage help manage and determine our own fate but we forfeit DPP forfeits this privilege by doing that we leave our faith to the hands of one power one great power that is China all two great Powers us and China and uh leenu will turn in his grave yeah thank you very much I overtime [Applause]

sorry

for Royal care for