“Ukrainians can win this war, and we see it,” says Elina Beketova, democracy fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, at a virtual press event.

Interestingly, Putin said a few months ago that Russia has 700,000 troops and could outlast the West. The reality is that Russia is using poorly trained conscripts. By now, everyone is familiar with how Ukrainian troops marched straight into Russian territory just north of Ukraine’s Sumy region. The conscripts just surrendered.

Think back to August 1968, when the Czechoslovakians tried to break free of the Soviet’s grasp. Russians used Czech tanks to quell the rebellion. But fast-forward to August 2024. Similar tanks are rolling out of Ukraine and into Russia, taking over the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces control at least 60 square kilometers and 93 settlements in this area.

Putin is lashing out. In a sign of weakness, he routinely boasts that Russia has nuclear weapons. Given that the West is supplying Ukraine’s military and it, too, has a nuclear arsenal, the Russian leader’s options are limited. “That means that the Russian authoritarian regime is not so strong or sustainable,” says Pavel Luzin, senior fellow with the think tank.

Undoubtedly, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine. In late August, it sent a wave of drones into the country, attacking its energy infrastructure— the biggest such assault in months. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, has lost nearly 90% of its generating capacity, costing about $50 billion in damages. DTEK supplies 20% of Ukraine’s electricity

Retaliatory Strikes

Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Western allies to give the country long-range weapons to defend its citizens. Last night, Ukraine hit a power plant in Moscow with drones. It is also striking oil depots and refineries. “Ukraine has options now because it was successful in the initial phase of this incursion,” says Nico Lange, senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Russia's oil and gas revenues amounted to $219 billion in 2020. Together, these two sectors account for 60% of Russia's exports and 40% of its federal budget. Putin attempted to flex Russia's energy power by reducing natural gas exports to Europe and increasing prices. Russia was earning between $500 million and $1 billion per day from selling oil and gas globally to fund its war against Ukraine.

It is backfiring. Not only is it losing global market share, but BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Equinor have also scaled back their Russian operations. Meanwhile, Ukraine possesses the third largest natural gas reserves in Europe. Although it produced 70 billion cubic meters in the 1960s and 1970s, this decreased by more than half in 1991 due to Russia shifting production to Siberia. Ukraine’s Naftogaz said it could step up and provide fuel to Europe.

“Two years ago, European gas prices spiked," says Edward Lucas, a senior fellow at the think tank. “But now they are slightly above pre-war levels. It’s a little bit like Russia’s nuclear weapons — the dog that didn't bark.”

Senior Fellow Luzin points out that Ukrainian attacks on fuel storage facilities and electric substations are retaliatory, aiming to give Russians a taste of their own medicine. Russia's electricity network is already fragile and needs modern technologies to increase resiliency. These attacks, combined with the vulnerability of their electricity network, are expected to cause significant suffering for the Russian people this winter, possibly even more than the hardships experienced by the Ukrainian people.

The most compelling question is whether the Russian dictatorship will survive. If Russia loses, dissatisfaction among the public and political elites could increase. Continued economic sanctions and military losses may further strain Russia, potentially creating an opportunity for political opposition or factions within the government to challenge Putin's leadership.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces said as of August 31, the Russians have lost 615,000 soldiers and 368 planes.

The Cost Of War

Consider that the United States has a gross domestic product of about $27 trillion—a highly diversified economy. China’s GDP is $18 trillion. Russia’s economy is significantly smaller: $2.3 trillion and heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. Much of that money goes towards funding the war — not supporting Russian society. Russian unrest is bubbling beneath the surface.

When the Soviet Union fell, the world welcomed Russia and the satellite nations into the global community. Markets opened to Russia. But Putin’s war against Ukraine has changed that. Even worse, the regime has reversed the country’s democratic strides. Now, any critic of Putin or the state is imprisoned or killed.

While Putin wants to be known for restoring Soviet territory and pride, author Anne Applebaum said Russians will remember him as the one who destroyed the country. Her book Autocracy Inc. said that he shuns the interests of ordinary citizens.

“They are just cannon fodder to him,” she told RadioFreeEurope. That was the case in Afghanistan and now Ukraine. And if we listen to Putin’s deputies, they have their eye on the Baltic States and consider Poland their eternal enemy. It is, thus, crucial for Ukraine to win this war.

"A military loss could create a real opening for national self-examination or a major change, as it so often has done in Russia’s past,” she writes. “Only failure can persuade the Russians themselves to question the sense and purpose of a colonial ideology that has repeatedly impoverished and ruined their own economy and society, as well as those of their neighbors, for decades.”

So, how does this war end? Ukraine’s President Zelenksy thinks his country has to escalate to de-escalate, a tactic that involves taking Russian land while taking out critical Russian energy assets. However, Putin believes he can win the war of attrition. But at what cost?

The longer this goes on, the poorer Russia becomes and the more toothless it looks. That may empower the people and dethrone the dictator.