约翰·米尔斯海默：中国是乌克兰战争的真正赢家吗？| 终局#136（Luminaries）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7goPRw_eE

Gita Wirjawan 2023年4月28日 

我认为我们今天在世界上面临的局势比冷战时期危险得多，现实主义者约翰·J·米尔斯海默在这次对话中警告道。

他挑衅性言论的根本原因是什么？美国应该在多大程度上亲自动手？

现实主义者约翰·米尔斯海默在终局134中受到迈克尔·麦克福尔的批评，他为乌克兰战争的原因和后果辩护，他总结为“大国政治的悲剧”。

米尔斯海默先生是芝加哥大学 R. 温德尔·哈里森政治学杰出服务教授，他还分享了他对美国为何讨厌他的现实主义理论、谁将从旷日持久的乌克兰战争中受益以及气候危机如何加剧北极地区的地缘政治紧张局势的看法。

主持人是印度尼西亚教育家、企业家、斯坦福大学沃尔特·H·肖伦斯坦亚太研究中心 (APARC) 现任访问学者吉塔·维贾万 (Gita Wirjawan)。

John Mearsheimer: Is China the Real Winner of Ukraine War? | Endgame #136 (Luminaries)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7goPRw_eE

Gita Wirjawan

 2023年4月28日  Endgame Podcast with Gita Wirjawan

“I think the situation we face today in the world is much more dangerous than it was during the Cold War,” warned realist John J. Mearsheimer in this conversation.

What are the underlying causes of his provoking statement? To what extent the United States should get its hands dirty?

Criticized by Michael McFaul in Endgame 134, realist John Mearsheimer defends his argument on the cause and consequences of the Ukraine War which he concludes as “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”.

Mr. Mearsheimer, who is an R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, also shares his view on why the US hates his realism theory, who will benefit from the prolonged Ukraine War, and how the climate crisis might increase the geopolitical tension over the Arctic region.

Hosted by Gita Wirjawan, an Indonesian educator, entrepreneur, and current visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University.

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4,670 条评论

@limjtet4932 1年前

以下是一位马来西亚 YouTuber 所写的分享：

我来自马来西亚。中国与马来西亚的贸易已有2000年的历史。那些年，他们曾多次成为世界第一强国。他们从来没有派遣军队占领我们的土地。中国海军上将郑和曾五次来到马六甲，率领庞大的舰队，所乘坐的旗舰是克里斯托弗·哥伦布旗舰圣玛丽亚号的八倍。他本可以轻易占领马六甲，但他没有。 1511年，葡萄牙人到来。 1642年，荷兰人到来。 18世纪英国人来了。我们被一个又一个地殖民。

当中国想要来自印度的香料时，他们就与印度人进行贸易。当他们想要宝石时，他们就与波斯人进行交易。他们没有夺取土地。中国唯一一次向外扩张是在元朝，当时成吉思汗及其后裔窝阔台汗、贵由汗和忽必烈汗吞并了中国、中亚和东欧。但元朝虽然立足于中国，但却是蒙古帝国的一部分。 

然后到了1800年，屈辱的世纪。英国在茶叶和瓷器贸易中找不到足够的白银来支付清朝的费用，并且这种鸦片行为持续了30多年，因此英国向中国走私鸦片来迷惑民众，这是扭转贸易逆差的策略。在中国为了遏制鸦片而烧毁鸦片仓库并关闭港口后，英国发动了第一次鸦片战争，中国战败。在和谈（《南京条约》）中，香港被迫向英国投降。英国人拥有中国90%的鸦片市场，当时的维多利亚女王是世界上最大的毒枭。剩下的 10% 归波士顿的美国商人所有。波士顿的许多机构都是靠鸦片利润建立的。 

《南京条约》签订十二年后，西方开始变得非常非常贪婪。英国人希望清政府： 

1.开放中国边境，允许货物自由进出，免税。 

2.使鸦片在中国合法化。

疯狂的要求，清政府拒绝了。英国和法国（在美国的支持下）与中国发动了第二次鸦片战争，中国再次战败。英法联军突袭颐和园，并威胁烧毁故宫，清政府被迫交出港口、自由贸易区、白银30万公斤，九龙被占领。从此，中国的资源通过这些商区和港口自由流出。在随后的条约修改中，中国人被卖到海外充当劳工。 

1900年，中国遭受八国同盟的进攻。这八强盗分别是：日本帝国、俄罗斯帝国、大英帝国（包括印度）、法国、美国、德国、意大利和奥匈帝国。北京（现北京）的无辜中国平民被杀害，建筑物被摧毁，妇女被强奸。皇宫遭到搜查，宝藏最终流入伦敦大英博物馆和巴黎卢浮宫等博物馆。 

20世纪30年代末，中国在二战中被日本占领。数百万中国人在占领期间死亡。仅南京大屠杀就有30万中国人死亡。 

毛泽东将中国从混乱中重新团结起来。一段时间存在和平与团结。但毛泽东统治后期，人们因饥荒和权力斗争而遭受痛苦和死亡。 

然后是邓小平和他臭名昭著的“黑猫白猫”故事。他对实用主义而非意识形态的偏爱改变了中国。这种思维使中国不断发展以适应国家的实际需要，而不是僵化于意识形态。这也标志着共产主义在中国的实际死亡。现行的社会主义+精英+市场经济模式就像手套一样适合中国人，推动着中国的崛起。新加坡也有类似的模式，而且可以说比香港更成功，因为香港作为中国的门户，受益于中国的经济繁荣，而新加坡却没有从中受益。

短短30年，中国共产党让8亿人摆脱了贫困。增长速度在人类历史上是前所未有的。他们建立了最大的移动网络、迄今为止世界上最大的高速铁路网络，并且已成为基础设施领域的庞然大物。他们把一个叫深圳的渔村变成了仅次于硅谷的世界第二大科技中心。他们正在成长为一个技术强国。它拥有世界上最复杂的电子商务和无现金支付系统。他们已经启动了对火星的探索。中国人民过着美好的生活，中国已成为世界上最安全的国家之一。全国人民的爱国主义精神达到了前所未有的高度。 

对于所有这些成就，西方没有什么好说的。中国遭受西方强烈的反华宣传。西方媒体使用“共产主义”这个关键词来灌输对中国的恐惧和仇恨。 

中国所做的一切都会受到负面报道。 

他们声称中国在制造 iPhone 时使用了奴工。事实是，苹果是世界上最赚钱的公司，它拿走了大部分利润，把一些利润留给了富士康（一家台湾公司），而几乎没有留给工人。 

他们声称中国的一胎政策是不人道的。同时，他们指责中国庞大的人口污染了地球。事实上，中国人均能源消耗量仅为美国的 30%。 

他们声称中国在新疆进行了种族清洗。事实上，中国有优先少数民族的政策。长期以来，少数民族允许生育两个孩子，而占多数的汉族只允许生育一个孩子。少数族裔在大学入学时可以得到较低的分数。中国有39,000座清真寺，美国有2100座。中国每名穆斯林拥有的清真寺数量大约是美国的三倍。 

当新疆发生恐怖袭击事件时，中国有两个选择：

1. 在维吾尔族极端分子变成恐怖分子之前对其进行再教育。

2. 随他们去吧，他们发动袭击，杀害无辜者后，轰炸他们的家园。 

中国选择方案一是为了从根本上解决问题，而不是杀人。美国如何解决恐怖主义？从战舰上发射导弹，从天上投下炸弹。 

疫情期间，当中国采取极端措施封锁民众时，他们被指责为不人道。

当中国因采取极端措施而迅速复苏时，他们被指责在实际数字上撒谎。

当中国的病例数变得如此之低，以至于可以向其他国家提供医疗支持时，他们被指责出于政治动机。 

西方媒体总是有理由攻击中国。 

就像任何国家一样，中国也有不负责任的人做坏事、肮脏事，但中国政府总体做得很好。但我一遍又一遍地听到西方人这样评价：我喜欢中国人，但中共是邪恶的。他们真正想要的是中国人改变政府，因为现在的政府太好了。 

幸好中国不是多党民主国家，否则中国的反对党就会得到美国臭名昭著的NGO（非政府组织）如NED（国家民主基金会）的支持，推翻执政党。美国、英国打不开中国大陆，就对香港下手。在所有前英国殖民地国家中，只有香港人获得了英国的BNO。因为英国希望香港人认为他们是英国公民，而不是中国人。他们在世界各地的颜色革命中经常使用分而治之的策略。 

他们采取了拘留华为首席财务官、禁止华为等卑鄙手段。他们发起了一场愚蠢的贸易战，这对任何人都没有好处。发展中国家与发达国家之间始终存在贸易逆差。美国就像一个卖豪车的人问农民：为什么我总是买你的菜，而你却不买我的车？ 

30年前，当中国人为世界制造袜子时，世界就顺其自然。但当中国开始制造像华为和大疆这样的高科技产品时，它引起了红色警报。因为当西方和日本产品在技术上与中国产品相当时，它们在价格上永远无法与中国产品相比。第一世界国家希望中国继续制造袜子。他们不是想提升自己，而是想拉低中国。 

美国近期针对中国的举动有一个非常重要的背景。当利比亚、伊朗和中国决定在石油贸易中放弃美元时，卡扎菲被美国杀死，伊朗被美国制裁，现在轮到中国了。美国一直在无中生有地印钞票。美元仍然被广泛接受的唯一原因是因为它是唯一允许与石油进行交易的货币。美国与沙特达成协议，石油只能以美元交易。如果没有石油美元地位，美元就会贬值，美国就会衰落。因此，任何试图违背这个命令的人都将被淘汰。中国很快将使用黄金支持的加密货币，白宫的警报疯狂响起。

中国的成就是靠艰苦努力取得的。不是通过掠夺世界。

我对中国所遭受的一切苦难深表同情，但现在我为他们感到高兴。

@limjtet4932 1年前

Sharing below written by a Malaysian YouTuber:

I’m from Malaysia. China has traded with Malaysia for 2000 years. In those years, they had been the world’s biggest powers many times. Never once they sent troops to take our land. China's admiral Zhenghe came to Malacca five times, in gigantic fleets, and a flagship eight times the size of Christopher Columbus’ flagship, Santa Maria. He could have seized Malacca easily, but he did not. In 1511, the Portuguese came. In 1642, the Dutch came. In the 18th century the British came. We were colonised by each, one after another.

When China wanted spices from India, they traded with the Indians. When they wanted gems, they traded with the Persian. They didn’t take lands. The only time China expanded beyond their current borders was in Yuan Dynasty, when Genghis and his descendants Ogedei Khan, Guyuk Khan & Kublai Khan concurred China, Mid Asia and Eastern Europe. But Yuan Dynasty, although being based in China, was a part of the Mongolian Empire. 

Then came year 1800, the Century of Humiliation. Britain smuggled opium into China to dope the population, a strategy to turn the trade deficit around, after the British could not find enough silver to pay the Qing Dynasty in their tea and porcelain trades and the doping went on for over 30 years. After the opium warehouses were burned down and ports were closed by the Chinese in ordered to curb opium, the British started the Opium War I, which China lost. Hong Kong was forced to be surrendered to the British in a peace talk (Nanjing Treaty). The British owned 90% of the opium market in China, during that time, Queen Victoria was the world’s biggest drug baron. The remaining 10% was owned by American merchants from Boston. Many of Boston’s institutions were built with profit from opium. 

After 12 years of Nanjing Treaty, the West started getting really really greedy. The British wanted the Qing government: 

1. To open the borders of China to allow goods coming in and out freely, and tax free. 

2. Make opium legal in China.

Insane requests, Qing government said no. The British and French (with supports from the US), started Opium War II with China, which again, China lost. The Anglo-French military raided the Summer Palace, and threatened to burn down the Imperial Palace, the Qing government was forced to pay with ports, free business zones, 300,000 kilograms of silver and Kowloon was taken. Since then, China’s resources flew out freely through these business zones and ports. In the subsequent amendment to the treaties, Chinese people were sold overseas to serve as labor. 

In 1900, China suffered attacks by the 8-National Alliance. These 8-Robbers were: Empire of Japan, Russian Empire, British Empire (including India), France, USA, Germany, Italy and Austria-Hungary. Innocent Chinese civilians in Peking (Beijing now) were murdered, buildings were destroyed & women were raped. The Imperial Palace was raided, and treasures ended up in museums like the British Museum in London and the Louvre in Paris. 

In late 1930s China was occupied by the Japanese in WWII. Millions of Chinese died during the occupancy. 300,000 Chinese died in Nanjing Massacre alone. 

Mao brought China together again from the shambles. There were peace and unity for some time. But Mao’s later reign saw sufferings and deaths from famine and power struggles. 

Then came Deng Xiao Ping and his infamous “black-cat and white-cat” story. His preference in pragmatism than ideologies transformed China. This thinking allowed China to evolve all the time to adapt to the actual needs in the country, instead of rigidly bounded to ideologies. It also signified the death of Communism in actually practice in China. The current Socialism+Meritocracy+Market Economy model fits the Chinese like gloves, and it propels the uprise of China. Singapore has a similar model, and has been arguably more successful than Hong Kong, because Hong Kong being gateway to China, was riding on the economic boom in China, while Singapore had no one to gain from.

In just 30 years, the CPC have moved 800 millions of people out from poverty. The rate of growth is unprecedented in human history. They have built the biggest mobile network, by far the biggest high speed rail network in the world, and they have become a behemoth in infrastructure. They made a fishing village called Shenzhen into the world’s second largest technological centre after the Silicon Valley. They are growing into a technological power house. It has the most elaborate e-commerce and cashless payment system in the world. They have launched exploration to Mars. The Chinese are living a good life and China has become one of the safest countries in the world. The level of patriotism in the country has reached an unprecedented height. 

For all of the achievements, the West has nothing good to say about it. China suffers from intense anti-China propagandas from the West. Western Media used the keyword “Communist” to instil fear and hatred towards China. 

Everything China does is negatively reported. 

They claimed China used slave labor in making iPhones. The truth was, Apple was the most profitable company in the world, it took most of the profit, leave some to Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) and little to the labor. 

They claimed China was inhuman with one-child policy. At the same time, they accused China of polluting the earth with its huge population. The fact is the Chinese consume just 30% of energy per capita compared to the US. 

They claimed China underwent ethnic cleansing in Xinjiang. The fact is China has a policy which priorities ethnic minorities. For a long time, the ethnic minorities were allowed to have two children and the majority Han only allowed one. The minorities are allowed a lower score for university intakes. There are 39,000 mosque in China, and 2100 in the US. China has about 3 times more mosque per muslim than the US. 

When terrorist attacks happened in Xinjiang, China had two choices:

1. Re-educate the Uighur extremists before they turned terrorists.

2. Let them be, after they launch attacks and killed innocent people, bomb their homes. 

China chose option 1 to solve problem from the root and not to do killing. How the US solve terrorism? Fire missiles from battleships, drop bombs from the sky. 

During the pandemic, when China took extreme measures to lockdown the people, they were accused of being inhuman.

When China recovered swiftly because of the extreme measures, they were accused of lying about the actual numbers.

When China’s cases became so low that they could provide medical support to other countries, they were accused of politically motivated. 

Western Media always have reasons to bash China. 

Just like any country, there are irresponsible individuals from China which do bad and dirty things, but the China government overall has done very well. But I hear this comment over and over by people from the West: I like Chinese people, but the CPC is evil. What they really want is the Chinese to change the government, because the current one is too good. 

Fortunately China is not a multi-party democratic country, otherwise the opposition party in China will be supported by notorious NGOs (Non-Government Organization) of the USA, like the NED (National Endowment for Democracy), to topple the ruling party. The US and the British couldn’t crack Mainland China, so they work on Hong Kong. Of all the ex-British colonial countries, only the Hong Kongers were offered BNOs by the British. Because the UK would like the Hong Kongers to think they are British citizens, not Chinese. A divide-and-conquer strategy, which they often used in Color Revolutions around the world. 

They resort to low dirty tricks like detaining Huawei’s CFO & banning Huawei. They raised a silly trade war which benefits no one. Trade deficit always exist between a developing and a developed country. USA is like a luxury car seller who ask a farmer: why am I always buying your vegetables and you haven’t bought any of my cars? 

When the Chinese were making socks for the world 30 years ago, the world let it be. But when Chinese started to make high technology products, like Huawei and DJI, it caused red-alert. Because when Western and Japanese products are equal to Chinese in technologies, they could never match the Chinese in prices. First world countries want China to continue in making socks. Instead of stepping up themselves, they want to pull China down. 

The recent movement by the US against China has a very important background. When Libya, Iran, and China decided to ditch the US dollar in oil trades, Gaddafi’s was killed by the US, Iran was being sanctioned by the US, and now it’s China’s turn. The US has been printing money out of nothing. The only reason why the US Dollar is still widely accepted, is because it’s the only currency which oil is allowed to be traded with. The US has an agreement with Saudi that oil must be traded in US dollar ONLY. Without the petrol-dollar status, the US dollars will sink, and America will fall. Therefore anyone trying to disobey this order will be eliminated. China will soon use a gold-backed crypto-currency, the alarms in the White House go off like mad.

China’s achievement has been by hard work. Not by looting the world.

I have deep sympathy for China for all the suffering, but now I feel happy for them.

@yingtaoli4966 1年前

作为一个中国人，我尊重约翰·米尔斯海默及其现实主义理论，但我并不认同。

中国不会在军事上制定打败美国的战略，因为美国无法被打败（美国拥有巨量的核武器）。从古至今，所有的帝国都不是被外部敌人打败的，都是由于帝国内部的腐朽崩溃的。中国的策略是继续强大自己，立于不败之地，然后坐等美国犯错然后崩溃。

中国不必掠夺就能富裕强大，而美国必须靠掠夺才能维持霸权，得道多助失道寡助，美国霸权最终会自我毁灭。

@jokepiebenga4709 2周前

What a lesson in history from this Malaysian You Tuber! Thank you! 

I am an 80 year old woman from the Netherlands and a long time already I'm ashamed for what my country and the West in general has done to the world and what misery they brought on people all over the world.

We only can hope it's done now for the West.

In the near future there will come a lot of destruction and a shift in our so called 'values' and that will only be for the better for all human kind! 

@fredsuun5004 1年前（修改过）

Now I understand why Chinese welcome Prof. John Mearsheimer. He is one of the few Western elites who do not blame China out of ideology (cliches of slave labor, human right, etc.) but seriously analyze China based on facts and theory. I especially appreciate his empathy on Chinese's struggle of sincerely trying to "peaceful rise." That empathy is so rare from another culture and shows his wisdom. Respect and look forward to more of his works and interviews.

@juanpisente7464 1年前（修改过）

Thank you Prof. Gita Wirjawan for the amazing content. We, as Indonesians, are incredibly lucky to have you as an inspiration.

I would humbly like to add to Mearsheimer's points. As someone who immersed himself in Chinese history as a young boy and is currently taking business in university. I believe that the United States are overlooking a few things, including Professor Mearsheimer. 

1. The Chinese, historically, have a concept called the "Tributary System." Basically, a pragmatic China would leave their neighbors alone as long as they pay "tribute" to the Chinese. The US have a perspective as if, wherever China walks, autocracy will follow similar to the Cold War with Communism. I don't think that is the case. China doesn't care about the internals of other countries as long as "they paid tribute." The Yuan Dynasty only invaded the Singhasari because our ancestors did not pay tribute. I think this idea of pragmatism will be highlighted as China's soft power projection in the future. The world can trust China more because they never coup a third world country, unlike the US. 

2. The Chinese are incredibly long-term oriented. This is the lands of Sun Tzu and their warfare tactics revolves our deception. I don't think Taiwan is China's end goal. Taiwan is just a distraction. I think a Chinese-dominated international finance is the end goal. We see how Saudi Arabia turned from the US after Chinese exports of Saudi oil eclipsed that of the Americans. They see the power in buying themselves friends. If one day China invaded Taiwan, it would be in a day where Southeast Asia have been dominated with Chinese money and SK-Japan no longer becoming advanced economies due to their advancing age demographics. They are playing the long game. They are sacrificing their short-term goals in Taiwan for long-term financial dominance. 

3. Many American theorists (even in YouTube) predicted that China will collapse anytime soon. They are underestimating the Confucian culture of the Chinese society. They said when China opened the COVID-19 restrictions because of the protests, it becomes as symbol that China will collapse. China doesn't work like that. When the West has a concept called "Divine Right to Rule," China has a more transactional-based concept to justify rule called the "Mandate of Heaven." Basically, this includes an Confucian ideal where the people give their full loyalty to the state and in return, the Chinese state will protect and provide their needs. China opening the COVID-19 restrictions is a symbol that the PRC is acting in accordance to the Mandate of Heaven and Confucian ideals. They are listening to the people. If anything, the Chinese would appreciate their government more after the protests. 

Chinese philosophy is very pragmatic. Their government will not collapse just because a government official is contradicts another. America's greatest mistake will be to use their line of thoughts on the Chinese instead of trying to learn from the Chinese's own unique eastern-way of thought. The Chinese, humiliated by the West for 200 years, have known the Western way of thought all too well evidenced by their love of Mearsheimer. There is a Chinese advantage in war of minds. In the past, I like to say to my International Relations friends in campus that "the Americans are playing chess, while the Chinese are play mahjong." Mearsheimer is right when he says the Americans have to take the Chinese more seriously.

@marvinfok65  1年前（修改过）

Well I have respect for Mearsheimer that he is dead honest about the US-China relationship is about hegemony and not some bullsh!t democracy vs authoritarian.

Mearsheimer once participated in a debate in Intelligence Square on the topic if "China is friend or a foe' a few years ago. He did try initially to bullsh!t about that if China is a democracy, US would not have treated China like a foe. However, by almost at the end of the debate and he was asked if he would think of China as a friend if China eventually becomes a democracy, he said NO. He honestly admitted that whether China is a democracy or not is not import because China is becoming too powerful, a jeopardy to US's hegemony!

 

@ClrenceKayet-iy9vk 2个月前

Am so grateful to have this lesson from Prof. Mearsheimer for free. The facilitator is has also done a great job.

@Bulelengman 1年前

Never in my life I would imagine a free accessible talks from John Mearsheimer. Terima kasih banyak Pak Gita..

@mbelgedhez007 1年前（修改过）

Salah satu pakar paling dihormati dalam bidangnya, tapi juga paling sedikit didengarkan oleh para politisi. Demi mengejar keuntungan taktis dan jangka pendek, mereka harus kehilangan keuntungan strategis dlm jangka panjang. Dan itu jadi salah satu penyebab kemunduran AS: politisinya tidak mendengarkan ilmuwan, kalau mendengar adalah pada ilmuwan yg melayani kepentingan jangka pendek mereka. 

Terimakasih Pak John dan Pak Gita!

@danielpan2159 1个月前

Thrilled to have such a wonderful speech by intelligent John and professional interviewing by Gita!

@user-bf4sb2ms2u 10个月前

完整的听完了，确实如中国人所想的。美国总是想着假借自由民主的名义遏制中国发展，不就是因为中国发展的太快了，威胁到美国霸权地位了吗？他们总是很虚伪。而这位教授非常真诚的讲出了中美交恶的底层逻辑。

中国人喜欢听真话，做真事。如果美国希望遏制中国，我们更愿意听到你们清晰地说:"我们美国想要当世界老大"，而不是"中国不是一个文明国家，中国是坏人，希望其他国家联合起来反对中国"。

说白了，美国就是希望发展霸权主义，推行意识形态对立，反对多边主义罢了，大家都非常清楚这一点。所以中国人甚至更喜欢特朗普一点，因为特朗普至少非常真实，他就是希望American first，而拜登就是个虚伪的老头子。

我认为中国崛起不影响美国人民的生活，并且合理竞争有利于全人类发展，如果把竞争的力量都用于发展航天航空等高精尖领域，而不是军事，那这个世界会多么美好啊。

@manawa-2872  1年前

WOW... as an International Relations student... I am amazed with this podcast session. I mean. I've been following you on Instagram and YouTube as well for more than 5 years and this is the most appealing talk I ever watch. Watching both of you makes me tremendously happy, because I can see and comprehend ideas and views from this Outstanding Scholar. Dankjewel Pak Gita.