历史学家尼尔·弗格森：论新的邪恶轴心、中国和冷战 2.0（访谈摘录）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ev_WmryZfY

亚洲观察家 + 见解

2024 年 8 月 11 日
本视频展示了对苏格兰裔美国历史学家尼尔·弗格森爵士的两次采访的剪辑片段，他是胡佛研究所的米尔班克家族高级研究员和哈佛大学贝尔弗科学与国际事务中心的高级研究员。

第一次采访——题为“历史学家弗格森眼中西方面临的四大威胁”——由《巴伦周刊》于 2023 年 10 月进行。

第二次采访题为“尼尔·弗格森眼中的 2024 年世界：危机、冲突和新的邪恶轴心”，于 2024 年 6 月在英国现场进行。

这段剪辑过的视频只包括与“新的邪恶轴心”有关的片段：中国、俄罗斯和伊朗，以及讨论习近平、台湾、冷战 2.0、中共的未来以及与中国缓和关系的智慧的片段。

与尼尔·弗格森一起展望 2024 年的世界：危机、冲突和后果

https://www.intelligencesquared.com/events/the-world-in-2024-with-niall-ferguson-crisis-conflict-and-consequences/

西方如何应对弗格森所谓的恶意轴心——俄罗斯、中国和伊朗——所带来的地缘政治和意识形态威胁？

“研究过去的目的是为了了解我们目前的困境”——尼尔·弗格森

很少有大思想家比历史学家尼尔·弗格森更适合解释全球事件。他不仅对过去的危机有着深刻的理解，而且还具有非凡的能力来规划当前危机对世界事务的长期影响。

2024 年 4 月，弗格森加入我们，登上 Intelligence Squared 舞台，讨论我们目前面临的困境。西方如何应对弗格森所谓的恶意轴心——俄罗斯、中国和伊朗——所带来的地缘政治和意识形态威胁？乌克兰和中东的局部战争以及台湾危机的威胁，我们是否正在梦游般地走向第三次世界大战？持续不断的冲突可能对世界经济造成什么后果？

弗格森探讨了这些紧迫的问题，并分享了他对快速变化的全球格局的见解。

尼尔·弗格森

英国最著名的历史学家之一，他的最新著作是《末日：灾难的政治》

里图拉·沙阿记者兼 Classic FM 主持人

末日：灾难的政治

https://www.amazon.ca/Doom-Politics-Catastrophe-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0593297393/ref=

作者：Niall Ferguson (Author) 2022 年 7 月 5 日

“从某种意义上说，所有灾难都是人为的。”

Niall Ferguson 从历史的角度看待 2020 年的灾难之年，解释了为什么我们在处理灾难方面越来越糟糕，而不是越来越好。
灾难本质上很难预测。流行病，如地震、野火、金融危机和战争，不是正态分布的；没有历史循环可以帮助我们预测下一次灾难。但是当灾难来临时，我们应该比维苏威火山爆发时的罗马人或黑死病来袭时的中世纪意大利人准备得更充分。毕竟，我们有科学支持我们。

然而，2020 年，包括美国在内的许多发达国家对来自中国的新型病毒的应对措施却大错特错。为什么？为什么只有少数亚洲国家从 SARS 和 MERS 中吸取了正确的教训？尽管民粹主义领导人在 COVID-19 大流行面前表现不佳，但尼尔·弗格森认为，更深层次的病态在起作用——这些病态在我们对早期灾难的反应中已经显现出来。

在近二十年前出版的《巨人》、《大退化》和《广场与塔》等书中，弗格森研究了现代美国的弱点，从帝国的傲慢到官僚主义的硬化和网络碎片化。

《毁灭战士》借鉴了经济学、历史动力学和网络科学等多个学科，不仅提供了灾难的历史，还提供了灾难的一般理论，展示了为什么我们日益官僚化和复杂的系统在处理灾难时变得越来越糟糕。

如果我们想更好地应对下一次危机，避免不可逆转的衰落，那么末日就是这个国家——实际上是整个西方——迫切需要学习的历史教训。

Historian Niall Ferguson: On the New Axis of Evil, China, and Cold War 2.0 (interview excerpts)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ev_WmryZfY

Asia Observer + Insights

This video presents edited clips from two interview with Sir Niall Ferguson, a Scottish–American historian who is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.

The first interview— entitled “The 4 Biggest Threats to the West, According to Historian Ferguson” — was conducted in October, 2023 by Barron’s magazine.

The second interview— entitled “The World In 2024 With Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict And The New Axis of Evil” — was conducted in front of a live audience in the UK on June, 2024.

This edited video includes only those clips pertaining to the “new Axis of Evil”: China, Russia, and Iran, as well as those discussing Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Cold War 2.0, the future of the CCP, and the wisdom of detente with China.

The World in 2024 with Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict and Consequences

https://www.intelligencesquared.com/events/the-world-in-2024-with-niall-ferguson-crisis-conflict-and-consequences/

How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran?

'The point of studying the past is to understand our present predicament' – Niall Ferguson

There are few big thinkers better placed to explain global events than historian Niall Ferguson. He has not just a profound understanding of past crises, but also an exceptional ability to map out the longer term impact that present crises will have on world affairs.

In April 2024 Ferguson joined us on the Intelligence Squared stage to discuss the predicaments we are currently facing. How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? With localised wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the threat of a crisis over Taiwan, are we sleepwalking towards a Third World War? And what are the likely consequences of the ongoing conflicts for the world economy?

Ferguson explored these pressing questions and shares his insights into the fast-changing global landscape.

Niall Ferguson

One of the UK's most renowned historians and his latest book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe

Ritula Shah Journalist and presenter on Classic FM

Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe 

https://www.amazon.ca/Doom-Politics-Catastrophe-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0593297393/ref=

by Niall Ferguson (Author)  July 5 2022

"All disasters are in some sense man-made."
Setting the annus horribilis of 2020 in historical perspective, Niall Ferguson explains why we are getting worse, not better, at handling disasters.
Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises. and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted, or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all.

Yet in 2020 the responses of many developed countries, including the United States, to a new virus from China were badly bungled. Why? Why did only a few Asian countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? While populist leaders certainly performed poorly in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work--pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters.

In books going back nearly twenty years, including Colossus, The Great Degeneration, and The Square and the Tower, Ferguson has studied the foibles of modern America, from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online fragmentation.

Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics, cliodynamics, and network science, Doom offers not just a history but a general theory of disasters, showing why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are getting worse at handling them.

Doom is the lesson of history that this country--indeed the West as a whole--urgently needs to learn, if we want to handle the next crisis better, and to avoid the ultimate doom of irreversible decline.

To buy Niall Ferguson's books (and e-book and audio versions), click the below links. NIALL FERGUSON BOOKS:

"Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3AkHqO0

“Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4ckFhz9

“The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3YGoUK3

"Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3SJcL3e

“The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4ckFD8X

“Civilization: The West and the Rest” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3WK2JA7

“Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World”. by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4cm6Ckx