莫迪連任引發中印緊張?! 挑釁中國是工作?! 大買俄羅斯便宜石油是生活?! 伊於胡底?【國際360】

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tz_W0cwFu6Q&ab_channel=

2024年7月11日

总体而言，在莫迪的领导下，印度人民陷入贫困，不平等现象愈演愈烈，印度市场萎缩而非扩大，而所有这些才是印度落后的真正原因，并不是因为中国的存在，甚至不是因为印度与中国的贸易，所以我想我会分三部分来回答这个问题。

首先，我们现在基本上是转向联盟政治，也就是说，莫迪特别依赖两个大盟友来接管272马克，这将使他拥有多数政府，这意味着他必须软化他的印度教民族主义政治，他必须接受很多东西，但我认为如此，因此有理由认为他将无法像以前那样强硬，然而，这是否会转化为外交政策是一个单独的问题，原因有很多，所以让我首先说，你必须了解莫迪的政党印度人民党在 1998 年至 2004 年联合执政之前就一直掌权，因为即使在 20 世纪 90 年代，他们非常强烈地参与了基于印度教身份和反穆斯林政治的所有动员之后，他们仍然无法通过 r L 25% 的选票，他们不得不加入联盟，因此，该党一直支持两件对印度支那关系不利的事情，第一，他们从历史上很早的时候就将中国视为印度的主要敌人，他们一直将中国作为攻击目标，可以追溯到 62 年战争，是的，你知道 62 年战争，如果你想一想，那是一个问题，它是基于印度犯下的许多错误，但因为他们一直反对尼鲁早先的对华友好政策，你知道 Hindi Hindi Chini顺便说一句，你知道印度人和中国人是兄弟等等，这项政策，印度人民党，印度民族主义右翼，基本上充分利用了 1962 年的失败，尽其所能，指责任何与中国友好的政策都是误导性的，欺骗性的等等，通过保持这种非常高分贝的言论，他们基本上阻止了印度需要经历的进程，以便与中国建立良好的关系，以便从与中国的良好关系中受益，无论是在安全和经济方面，我认为印度与印度支那的合作可以走很长的路，但整个进程都被阻止了，这个过程是什么，印度在边界争端上的立场，这是印度不断挑起的主要问题，印度的立场是基于当今许多印度学者所承认的殖民立场，即地图上绘制的殖民路线有很多理由相信，印度的立场是无效的，而中国所持的立场是，让我们坐下来谈判，研究一下利益，什么才是有效的，等等，同时在边界争端问题上，让我们推进我们的利益，让我们推进我们在其他问题上的合作，所以中国在与印度的关系方面一直非常让步，但如果不经历这个过程，认识到印度的领土主张是无效的，它们更容易受到质疑，印度人不会提出任何立场，现在，无论谁掌权，印度都会对中国采取合作态度，话虽如此，鉴于印度的立场是不可行的，历史本身，我的意思是现实本身对印度政府施加了某种重力。

因此，自 1980 年代以来，印度和中国基本上进行了大量密集的外交，即使在 1990 年代，这种外交仍在继续。瓦杰帕伊政府，然后是 2004 年至 2014 年曼莫汉·辛格先生的 UPA 政府，这导致印度和中国之间关系的显著改善，并且人们逐渐认识到应该就边界争端进行谈判，在进行这些谈判的同时，我们也应该深化我们的经济关系，所以这一切进展顺利，直到现在莫迪打断了谈判，我想稍后再谈谈莫迪，但在继续谈论莫迪和其他事情之前，我还要说最后一件事，他所做的是理解的关键，我的意思是，或者让我重申一下，UPA 政府在与中国的良好关系方面取得了重大进展，但本质上他们在印度支那关系方面取得了进展，但他们并没有同时改变印度内部的话语，他们没有说，伙计们，看，现在是我们改变对边界态度的时候了争议，我们需要经历一个学习的过程，我们需要承认我们的立场不是100%正确的，所以他们没有把这个公开讨论出来，这意味着印度教右翼继续利用印度的反华情绪，他们被允许留下，这是联合进步联盟政府的错，我认为印度任何稳固的、不可轻易逆转的进步都依赖于印度的这一进程，这一意识形态进程，所以，这就是关于中国和进步的，在莫迪先生的领导下，我认为莫迪先生非常清楚，印度无法赢得与中国的任何军事对抗，但尽管如此，小规模冲突还是被充分利用在反华言论中，然后巩固了印度教和印度民族在莫迪先生身后的地位，所以他完全自由，他也不擅长追求经济关系等等，所以我坦率地说，我个人认为莫迪的外交政策通常包括一大堆拍照机会，供他自己和其他世界领导人拍照，当莫迪穿衣时，你知道，正如你可能知道的，他对以某种方式穿衣很着迷，而且你知道非常昂贵，所以等等，所以这似乎就是他所关心的一切，他唯一关心的另一件事就是给他的企业亲信在国外的合同，特别是你可能知道的，例如，阿达尼先生陪同莫迪先生出访澳大利亚，带回了一堆采矿合同，等等，这些都是这样的东西，否则他真的没有什么外交政策，所以缺乏明确的外交政策，加上希望利用印度的反华和反巴基斯坦情绪，意味着莫迪先生对与中国建立良好关系并不十分有利，最后，第三部分是，莫迪先生和前任印度人民党政府一样，在意识形态上也更倾向于与美国建立良好关系和更紧密的关系，最好的例子就是，你知道，当瓦杰帕伊先生，前任印度人民党总理，在 1998 年至 2004 年任职时，B 先生几天之内上台后进行了第二次核试验，如果你还记得那天晚上，你可能不记得了，但你可能知道他进行了第二次核试验，他在核试验后立即给克林顿总统写了一封信，在信中他非常清楚地表明了进行核试验的原因，这是一封很短的信，你可以在网上找到它，印度试验的目的本质上是为了加强印度对中国的防御，中国被视为主要问题，当然，在克林顿执政期间，美国和中国的关系比现在更好，但尽管如此，瓦杰帕伊先生还是对克林顿先生说，印度和美国应该联合起来对抗中国，这种趋势一直在持续，这也使印度越来越接近以色列，作为更大的区域战略的一部分，当然，以色列和以色列在莫迪领导下的印度、内塔尼亚胡领导下的以色列以及莫迪领导下的印度以及犹太复国主义和印度教民族主义方面也团结在一起是共同的反对伊斯兰教等等，所以这是战略的一部分，所以莫迪先生非常希望与美国走得更近，然而他面临两个问题，正如我们之前多次讨论过的那样，我之前和你讨论过很多次，我也在很多其他地方说过，西方经济体，尤其是美国经济体，目前并不处于非常有利的地位，无法为大多数合作伙伴提供任何经济上有吸引力的东西，他们无法建立巩固的可持续关系，作为更大的合作伙伴，作为更富有的合作伙伴，他们能够为合作伙伴提供一些好处，所以另一方面，美国和西方不那么有吸引力，那么乌克兰战争当然造成了一种局面，莫迪被迫向俄罗斯靠拢，而这比他希望的要多，因为向美国靠拢的另一部分当然也是放弃印度与俄罗斯历史上牢固的关系，而这一直依赖于两件事，其中一件事当然是伟大的国防合作，另一件事是某种经济关系。现在，印度人越来越多地从西方国家而不是俄罗斯寻求武器，国防合作肯定被削弱了。但与此同时，随着乌克兰冲突的爆发，油价上涨使印度陷入困境，也给了印度“胡萝卜加大棒”的机会，以维持至少某种体面的与俄罗斯的关系。胡萝卜当然是印度能够廉价进口石油，因为如果没有这种廉价石油，印度的通货膨胀率将大幅上升，因为印度非常依赖进口石油。所以，胡萝卜当然是，呃，大棒当然是，对不起，大棒是印度需要进口这种石油，胡萝卜当然是，莫迪的许多企业亲信通过进口廉价的俄罗斯石油赚了很多钱，然后卖给欧洲客户因为印度出口等，所以他们有这种循环贸易，俄罗斯也受益等. 所以在俄罗斯和印度达成的新的卢比卢布贸易协议，印度一直在购买大量俄罗斯石油，但另一方面，俄罗斯人对这些协议的结果并不特别满意，他们很高兴地加入了进来，希望一切都会好起来，但他们发现，虽然印度以石油等形式从俄罗斯购买了大量商品，但俄罗斯想要从印度购买的并不多，所以俄罗斯最终得到了一堆卢比，不知道该怎么处理，这是另一个因素，因此，在与西方日益密切的关系中，印度不得不希望与俄罗斯和中国保持距离，但俄罗斯和中国都很难做到这一点，我想说，你知道印度，嗯，印度的市场今天就像印度普通的邻里市场一样，越来越依赖进口商品来自中国的非常高效、廉价的产品可以降低通货膨胀率，否则通货膨胀率会比现在更高，所以印度依赖这一点，许多印度商人希望与印度保持良好关系，但尽管如此，印度继续通过参加中国南海的军事演习来挑衅中国，所谓的航行自由演习加入四方会谈，与日本越来越亲近，日本很高兴参与美国试图将亚太地区转变为印度洋太平洋等的尝试，而印度是主要工具，所以这是一个复杂的情况。莫迪非常希望与美国走得更近，但情况不允许，但莫迪并不急于向中国屈服，最后一点，莫迪在学术界获得的许多媒体赞誉中，他们指出的一件事是，印度正在失去在北方邦联合进步联盟政府领导下发起的向中国靠拢的战略2004 年至 2004 年对印度来说是非常糟糕的，因为印度现在有非常大的贸易逆差，印度在 R 世界排名中正在下滑等等，但事实是，如果你想对印度的贸易逆差做点什么，中国不会阻止你，中国不会提供销售其产品，但中国不会阻止印度成为制造中心，然而，成为制造中心，呃，一个经济强国需要的是强有力的产业政策，一个明确的发展战略，扩大印度市场，印度不能成为世界其他国家的出口平台，无论如何，印度首先需要满足其极度贫困的公民的需求，需要增加他们的收入，需要增加他们的消费，需要增加，因此，创造一个更大的印度市场，拥有良好的就业率，高就业率，高工资，将为印度的增长创造巨大的刺激，任何人都可以实现这一点通过体面的经济和工业政策，印度并没有走这条路。在莫迪的领导下，印度总体上使人民贫困，造成了越来越多的不平等，印度市场萎缩而不是扩大，而所有这些才是印度落后的真正原因，而不是因为中国的存在，甚至不是因为印度与中国的贸易。我想说，今天很多受过教育的印度人都很乐意对一个中国政策提出质疑，就像美国试图做的那样，它试图让它变得模棱两可，对吧，它一直都是模棱两可的，正如你知道的，美国在 1970 年代承认中国的那一刻，它还通过了《台湾关系法》，以便向中国提供武器，这样一方面它就说你知道一个中国原则，一个中国政策，另一方面它已经淡化了它，所以印度的观点可以朝那个方向发展，不幸的是，就像我说的，印度的许多人都认识到印度对印度支那关系的整个叙述一直存在很大问题，但这些人仍然是少数，在我看来，他们是对的，但他们被限制在公共话语中的某些领域，公共话语的主要内容始终是，你知道，中国所做的一切都应该被视为独裁霸权，你知道，中国试图在亚洲和其他地方称霸，追求自己的经济利益等等，我的意思并不是说中国不应该追求自己的经济利益，但我认为中国的天才在于试图与合作伙伴找到互利互惠，你知道我们受益，但你也受益，这就是中国与该地区和世界上许多合作伙伴建立关系的方式，这是一个非常重要的问题，我想说，我们并不完全知道答案，一方面，人们希望联合政府的存在会给一些甚至当国大党政府改善与中国的关系时，也没有采取足够的措施来是针对印度的印度中国边界争端提出虚假的叙述，如果没有这样做，莫迪很有可能在这种情况下使印度舆论倾向于反华方向，所以这是局势的另一个因素，局势的第三个因素是印度国防领导层是否负责任或不负责任，各军种的首脑能否对总理说，总理，这是一个非常危险的立场，我们无法抵御任何军事挑战，任何与中国的军事冲突，所以请小心等等，我们不知道情况是否如此，事实上，从我的阅读中可以清楚地看出，在过去十年中，莫迪政府一直在对军队进行改革，这可能会让赞成的人担任高层职位，所以你知道这是怎么回事，我也觉得，巴基斯坦签证和中国签证都有可能莫迪政府将以一种完全妄想的方式行事，你知道，这不是基于对印度实力或印度利益的任何现实评估，而是一种完全妄想的方式，它努力支持美国，不考虑印度军事或经济准备的局限性，他们很可能会采取一个有问题的立场，他们可能会让印度卷入战争，我认为他们不会错过，因为莫迪已经做出了非常重要的决定，比如货币废除，比如新冠疫情封锁，而没有关心普通印度人会发生什么，我认为这种决定并不超出他的范围，我想说，在受过教育的精英中，不幸的是，对于我们来说，印度中产阶级是世界上最支持美国的，因此他们倾向于接受美国说这是正确的立场，而不是你知道印度有良好的反帝国主义历史，在独立后的头几十年里，印度的大部分外交政策论述都遵循了试图理解帝国主义、它的历史、抵制它的必要性等等的尝试。

India has on the whole under Modi
impoverished its people created ever
more inequality Shrunk the Indian market
rather than expanded it and all of this
is the real reason why India is falling
behind not because of the existence of
China or even India's trade with
China I mean so I I guess I'd like to
give my answer in three parts so the
first is that uh basically what we have
now is shift back to Coalition politics
that is to say Modi relies particularly
on two big allies to take him over the
272 Mark which will allow him to have um
majority government so this means that
uh he has to soften his hindutva
politics he has to accept a lot of it
but I think so so there is reason to
imagine that he will not be able to be
as Hardline as he has been however
whether this will translate into foreign
policy is a separate question for a
number of reasons so let me say first of
all that you have to understand that
modi's party which is the BJP which has
been in power before it was in power in
Coalition between 1998 and 2004 because
you see even after all the mobilization
based on Hindu identity and anti-muslim
politics which they engaged in very
strongly in the 1990s they were not able
to pass the r L 25% of the vote Mark
they had to enter into Coalition and so
this party has always been in favor of
two things which do not Aur very well
for indo-china relations the first is
that they have from a very early point
in their history seen China as the main
enemy of India they have always targeted
China going back to the 62 war in fact
yes you know the 62 War if you think
about it was a problem you know was a m
it was based on many mistakes made by
India but because they have consistently
kept up this you know opposition to
neeru's earlier policy of Friendship
with China you know Hindi Hindi Chini by
by you know that Indians and Chinese
were brothers etc etc this policy the
BJP the Hindu nationalist right has
essentially milk the failures of 1962
for everything they can in order to
accuse any policy of Friendship with
China as being misguided deluded Etc and
by keeping up a very high decible
rhetoric of this sort they have
essentially prevented a process that
India needs to have to go through uh in
order to have good relations with China
in order to benefit from uh good
relation with China both in terms of
security and in terms of economy I think
India indo-chinese cooperation could go
a very long way but this whole process
is being stopped and what is that
process the Indian position on the
border disputes which is the main issue
that that India keeps uh raking up the
Indian position has been based as many
scholars in India today recognize on a
colonial position the colonial drawings
lines drawn on a map there are many
reasons to believe that the position
that India is taking is not a valid one
and that the position China is taking
which is that let's sit down negotiate
look into the interests what works Etc
and also while doing so On the Border
dispute let's Advance our interests
let's Advance our cooperation on other
matters so China has always been very
shall we say giving in terms of its
relationship with with India but without
going through this process of realizing
that India's territorial claims are not
valid that they are more open to
question Indians will not come up with
any position now come up to a
Cooperative attitude to China no matter
who is in power now having said that
given the reality that India's position
was not
viable history itself I mean reality
itself exerted a certain type of gravity
on Indian government so that in the
period since the 1980s basically India
and China have engaged in a lot of
intensive diplomacy which continued even
under the vajpai government and then
also under the UPA government of Mr
Manmohan Singh from 2004 to 2014 and
this led to considerable improvements in
relations between India and and China
and a creeping recognition that yes
there should be negotiations On the
Border dispute and while those
negotiations take place let's also
deepen our economic relationship so all
of that was proceeding generally well
until it was cut short by Modi now and I
want to talk about Modi in a minute but
let me also say one final thing before
going on to Modi and the other things
he's done the key to understanding I
mean or let me rephrase that the UPA
government in particular made big
advances in good relations with China
but what you had essentially they
achieved progress in indo-chinese
relations but they did not at the same
time transform the discourse within
India they did not say look folks it's
time for us to change our attitude
towards the Border dispute we need to go
through a process of learning we need to
acknowledge that our position is not
100% correct so they did not put this
out in the public discourse and that
means that the Hindu right has continued
to exploit anti-china sentiments in
India they have been allowed to remain
and this is a fault of the UPA
government and I think any secure
progress in India that cannot be easily
reversed relies on having this process
this ideological process in India so so
that's about uh China and the progress
and and and under Mr Modi essentially Mr
Modi I think Mr Modi is quite well aware
that India cannot win any kind of
military confrontation with China but
nevertheless little skirmishes have been
exploited to the
fullest in an anti-china rhetoric which
then consolidates the Hindu and Indian
Nation behind Mr Modi Etc so he has been
totally free and he has also not been
particularly good at pursuing you know
the economic relationship and so on so I
mean quite frankly I personally think
that modi's foreign policy generally
consists of a whole bunch of photo
opportunities for himself and other
world leaders you know in when Modi
dresses you know as you may know he has
this obsession with dressing in certain
ways and you know very expensively and
so on so that's all he seems to care
about and the only other thing he cares
about is giving his
corporate cronies contracts abroad
particularly as you may know for example
Mr adani accompanied Mr Modi on a state
trip to Australia and came back with a
bunch of you know mining contracts and
what have you so these are the sorts of
things otherwise he really has not much
of any foreign policy so this lack of a
defined foreign policy plus a desire to
exploit anti-china and of course
anti-pakistan sentiments in India means
that Mr Mr Modi is not been very
conducive to good relations with China
and finally the third part which is that
Mr Modi like the previous BJP government
is also ideologically much more in favor
of good relations and ever closer
relations with the United States the
best example of this would be that you
know when um Mr vajpai the previous BJP
prime minister who was in office between
1998 to 2004 Mr B within days of coming
into Power conducted a second nuclear
test if you remember night well you may
not remember but you may know that he
cons conducted a second nuclear test and
he immediately following on uh the
nuclear test he wrote a letter to
President Clinton in which he made it
very clear that the reason for the
nuclear a short letter and you can find
it on the web the purpose of the Indian
tests was to essentially strengthen
India's defenses against China China was
regarded as the main problem and
essentially this was of course under
Clinton still in China us China
relations were better than what they are
now but nevertheless essentially Mr
vajpai was saying to Mr Clinton that
India and the US should make common
cause against China and this tendency
has continued it has also involved India
becoming ever closer to Israel as part
of a larger Regional strategy and and of
course what also unites is Israel in
India under Modi Israel under Netanyahu
and India under Modi and generally
Zionism and hindutva is the common
opposition to Islam and so on so this is
a part of the strategy so Mr Modi would
dearly love to go ever
closer to the United States however he
faces two problems as we have discussed
on this you know many times before with
I have discussed with you many times
before and I have said many other places
the Western economies and the US economy
in particular are not in a very strong
position right now to offer anything
economically attractive to most of their
Partners they are not capable of uh
creating cementing sustainable
relationships where they provide some
benefit as the bigger partner as the
Richer partner to their Partners so and
on the other hand the US and the West
are not so attractive then what has
happened of course is that the Ukraine
war has created a situation in which
Modi is forced to lean closer to Russia
than it would like to because the other
part of Leaning closer to the US is also
of course to abandon India's
historically strong
relations with Russia and which have
been dependent on two things in
particular one is of course great
defense cooperation and the other is a
certain economic relationship now
defense cooperation has been certainly
diluted on the part of the Indians who
are seeking weapons more and more from
Western countries rather than from
Russia but at the same time with the
Ukraine uh conflict the rise in the
price of oil has put India in a bind and
also has given both carrot and stick to
maintain at least some kind of decent
relation with Russia the carrot of
course is that India is able to import
oil cheaply because without this cheap
oil the rate of inflation in India would
go up massively because India is very
heavily reliant on imported oil so there
is that and the uh the Stick Of course
is that sorry that's the stick that in
India can India needs to import that and
the carrot is that of course many of
modi's corporate cronies are making a
lot of money importing cheap Russian oil
and then selling it onto European
customers as Indian exports Etc so that
they there is this kind of circular
trade going on Russia also benefits Etc
so under the a new arrange M of rupee
Ruble trade that Russia and India have
India has been buying a lot of Russian
oil but on the other side by the way the
Russians are not particularly happy with
the outcome of these Arrangements they
had entered it very happily hoping that
everything would be fine but what they
are finding is that while India is
buying a lot from Russia in the form of
oil Etc there is not much that Russia
need wants to buy from India so Russia
is ending up with a pile of rupees it
doesn't know what to do with so that's
another another element so that in this
ever closer relations with the West as
India has had to would like to distance
itself both from Russia and China but it
is finding it hard to do so in the case
of Russia in the case of china as well I
would say that you know India uh India's
markets are today like ordinary
neighborhood markets in India are more
and more reliant on importing goods from
China which being very efficiently
produced inexpensive keep down the rate
of inflation which would otherwise go
even higher than it has already gone so
India is reliant on that many Indian
businessmen would like to keep good
relations with India but nevertheless
India continues to provoke China by
joining military exercises in the South
China SE with the so-called freedom of
navigation exercises joining the quad
getting ever closer with Japan being
part happily engaging in the US attempt
to transform the Asia Pacific into the
indopacific and so on with India as a
major tool so it's a complex situation
Modi would dearly love to be even closer
to the US but circumstances are not
permitting that so but nevertheless Modi
is not eager to to give into China and
one final Point many uh of modi's
accolades in the media in scholarship in
the scholarly world one of the things
they point to is that India is losing
that the strategy of moving closer to
China initiated under the up Congress L
UPA government of 2004 to4 has been very
bad for India because India now has a
very big trade deficit and India is not
you know is sliding in its R world
rankings and and so on but the fact is
that if you want to do something about
India's trade deficit China is not
stopping you China is not China is
offering to sell its products but China
is not stopping India from becoming a
manufacturing Hub what becoming a
manufacturing Hub uh an economic power
requires however is a muscular
industrial policy a clear development
strategy which expands the Indian market
India cannot be a export platform for
the rest of the world and in any case
India first needs to fulfill the needs
of its extremely deprived citizens it
needs to increase their incomes it needs
to increase their consumption it needs
to increase and and so creating a larger
Indian market with a well employed with
high employment good wages will create a
vast stimulus for India's growth which
can be fulfilled by any you know by a
decent economic and Industrial policy
but India is not following this route
India has on the whole under Modi
impoverished its people created ever
more inequality Shrunk the Indian market
rather than expanded it and all of this
is the real reason why India is falling
behind not because of the existence of
China or even India's trade with China
I would say that today a lot of educated
Indians are all too happy to raise
questions about the one China policy
like the US is trying to do it's trying
to make it ambiguous right and it has
always been ambiguous as you know the
moment that the US recognized China in
the 1970s it also passed the Taiwan
relations act so that it would send arms
to China so that on the one hand it was
saying you know one China principle on
one China policy and on the other hand
it was already diluting it so India is
can Indian opinion can go in that
direction unfortunately like I said many
people in India recognize that the whole
Narrative of Indochina relations has
been very problematic in India but these
people still remain a minority they are
to in my view they are right but they
are confined to certain niches in the
public discourse the main line public
discourse is always that you know
whatever China does should be regarded
as you know authoritarian hegemonic you
know trying to be hegemonic in in Asia
and elsewhere and pursuing its own
economic interests and and and so on and
so forth and I mean not saying that
China should not pursue its own economic
interest but I think China's genius has
laan in trying to find mutual benefits
with its partners that you know we
benefit but you also benefit and this is
the way in which China has built its
relation
with its many many partners in the
region and in the
world that is a very important question
and I would say that we do not fully
know the answer uh on the one hand one
would hope that the existence of the
coalition government would P some sort
of restraint on India Vis of each China
that even when the Congress L government
was improving relations with China did
not do enough to dislodge the false
narrative about India about the India
China border dispute in India and
without with that not having been done
it's quite possible that Modi will be
able to make Indian opinion lean in an
anti-china Direction in those
circumstances however so so that's
another element in the situation and a
third element in the situation is how
responsible or irresponsible is India's
defense leadership
will the heads of the various armed
services be able to say to the Prime
Minister look prime minister this is a
very dangerous position to take we
cannot stand up to any military
challenge any military conflict with
China so please be careful Etc we don't
know whether this is the case and indeed
from my reading it's clear that over the
last decade the Modi government has been
introducing changes in the Army which
are likely to put yes people in top
positions so that you know this is and I
also feel that uh both Visa Pakistan and
Visa China the possibility that the Modi
government will act in a completely
delusional manner you know not based on
any realistic assessment of India's
strengths or for that matter India's
interests but in a completely delusional
manner in its effort to be Pro us and
unmindful of in the limitations of
India's military or economic
preparedness
they may very well take a problematic
deeply problematic position They may
involve India in Wars I don't put it
past them given the way in which Modi
has taken terribly consequential
decisions like demonetization like the
covid lockdowns without a care for what
happens to ordinary Indians I think that
this kind of decision is not Beyond him
I would say that uh among the educated
Elite which unfortunately for us for the
indo-china relations Is among the most
Pro Us in the world the middle class in
India is among the most Pro Us in the
world therefore their tendency is to
accept what the US says as the correct
position rather than you know India has
had a good Anti-Imperialist past and in
the first many decades of Independence
much of India's foreign policy discourse
did follow an attempt to understand
imperialism its history the need to
resist it and so on.