IMF 调查：尚达曼：我们知道需要做什么，而且我们必须去做

IMF 调查  2014 年 10 月 12 日

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew101214a

长期低增长的风险；今天需要解决明天的问题

结构性改革现在和将来都能带来回报

改革行动需要政治勇气

在一次采访中，IMF 政策指导机构主席尚达曼呼吁各国迅速采取行动，在福利支出、劳动力市场和税收等领域采取结构性改革，以促进增长并避免长期的低增长。

尚达曼指出，我们今天的真正问题是缺乏中长期信心。“这种缺乏信心会阻碍今天的活动和今天的增长，”他说。他说，结构性改革解决了这一关键的信心差距，并以墨西哥和西班牙为例，这些改革已取得有益成果。他说，改革需要一些“政治勇气”，但这意味着“为人们，特别是年轻人，带来振奋人心的可能性”。

国际货币基金组织调查：全球经济似乎陷入了低增长、高失业率的泥潭。作为国际货币与金融委员会主席，您呼吁现在采取行动——一种新的政策势头。这到底意味着什么？

萨曼：首先，让我们承认积极的一面，因为自金融危机以来，我们取得了真正的进展。美国是最大的发达经济体，是包括我们亚洲在内的所有人非常重要的需求来源，显然正在复苏。一些进行了艰难改革的国家，如西班牙，正在复苏——不仅是因为工资下降和净出口上升，还因为国内需求正在复苏。然后，低收入国家正在表现出以前没有的活力。所以有一些真正的积极因素。

但总体而言，我们才刚刚走出危机的复苏之路的一半。欧元区才刚刚恢复。我们同时面临着新的金融风险，我们必须密切关注。我们还面临着长期低于平均水平的增长风险，或者国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德所说的“新平庸”。这是一个非常现实的风险。

关键是，永远不要把风险当作既定事实。永远不要把它当作命中注定的事情。我们识别风险是为了避免它们。这就是我们讨论的重点。有很多方法可以避免长期低于平均水平的增长风险。

国际货币基金组织调查：在会议期间，我们听到许多来自发达市场和新兴市场的官员谈论寻找实现新增长的新方法。他们都说结构性改革是关键。但结构性改革很难实施，而且好处要到中期才会显现出来。您如何动员政策制定者现在就采取行动？

塔尔曼：我认为认为结构性改革只能在中长期内产生效果是错误的。

我们今天真正的问题是缺乏中长期信心。这种缺乏信心会阻碍今天的活动和今天的增长。

消费者和企业可能不是完全理性的行为者，但他们确实着眼于未来。如果他们担心未来，他们就会减少今天的支出。他们会减少投资。他们会减少消费。因此，如果我们想摆脱今天的问题，就必须今天解决明天的问题。

如果我们这样做，我们就会增强信心，即使在短期内我们也应该看到一些改善。有很多例子。事实上，如果你看看西班牙，你会发现劳动力市场和其他一些领域的结构性改革如何相对迅速地传导到今天的增长中，这相当有趣。墨西哥是另一个典型的例子，说明结构性改革并没有要求他们经历一段很长的紧缩期或长期低迷期，然后才最终走到尽头。

因此，结构性改革解决了当今世界面临的关键差距，即信心和信任。通过为消费者、企业和广大公众恢复信心和信任，您最有可能摆脱当前的困境。

IMF 调查：我们在这次会议上听到的统一主题之一是推动基础设施投资。您如何确保这项投资的效率？

Tharman：这是一个非常好的观点，它很好地说明了改革不仅是必要的，而且可以带来真正的好处。在公共投资和基础设施方面，引入私营部门的参与不仅仅是为了获得更多资金，因为政府预算不足。它还涉及关注效率和经济回报的敏锐眼光。

精心设计的公私伙伴关系通常在财务上更具可持续性，更有可能带来高效的项目设计和更可持续的运营。我们谈论的很多内容都必须超越泛泛而谈，进入设计可持续发展的具体内容。

私营部门参与的公共基础设施建设。例如，在合同中引入标准化和透明的终止条款可以降低投资者要求的风险溢价，从而降低公共财政的成本。

国际货币基金组织调查：您希望政策制定者从这些年度会议中得到的关键信息是什么？

Tharman：我们知道需要做什么，我们需要去做。做这件事需要政治勇气。但重要的是，它涉及改变政治叙事。

当我们谈论劳动力市场改革时，这并不是人口需要做出的巨大牺牲。这是一种为年轻人、女性，有时也为少数群体创造就业机会的方式。这在政治上没有吸引力吗？违背既得利益并不意味着违背大多数人。这意味着你正在为人们，特别是年轻人，创造更多的可能性。

IMF Survey : Tharman: We Know What Needs to be Done and We Need to Do It

October 12, 2014

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew101214a

• Risk of prolonged low growth; need to address tomorrow's problems today
• Structural reforms can pay off now and in the future
• Action on reforms requires political courage

In an interview, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chair of the IMF’s policy steering body, calls for countries to move quickly to adopt structural reforms in such areas as entitlement spending, labor markets and taxes to boost growth and avert a prolonged period of weak growth.

Tharman notes that our real problem today is a lack of confidence in the medium to long term. “That lack of confidence inhibits today's activity and today's growth, “ he said. Structural reforms address this critical confidence gap, he says, citing Mexico and Spain as examples where such reforms have shown beneficial results. Reforms require some “political courage,” he said, but it means “uplifting possibilities for people, and particularly, for the youth.”

IMF Survey: The global economy seems to be stuck in a low growth, high unemployment rut. As the IMFC Chair, you have made a call to action now--a new policy momentum. What does that really mean?

Tharman: Well, first let’s acknowledge the positives, because there's been real progress since the financial crisis. The United States, the largest of advanced economies, a very important source of demand for everyone, including us in Asia, is clearly in recovery. Some countries which have undertaken tough reforms, like Spain, are seeing recovery--not just because wages have fallen and net exports are rising, but because domestic demand is recovering. Then the low-income countries are showing a vibrancy that wasn't there previously. So there are some real positives.

But overall, we are only halfway through this journey of recovering from the crisis. The Eurozone is barely recovered. We are facing new financial risks at the same time, which we have to focus on very closely. And we also face the risk of prolonged period of sub-par growth, or what the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, has called a “new mediocre.” This is a very real risk.

The point is, never treat a risk as a given. Never treat it as something preordained. We identify the risks in order to avoid them. That's the whole point of our discussions. There are ways of avoiding this risk of a prolonged period of sub-par growth.

IMF Survey: During the meetings we heard a lot of officials, both from advanced and emerging markets, talk about finding new ways to achieve new growth. They all said that structural reforms is a key. But structural reform is difficult to implement and the benefits come much later in the medium-term. How do you mobilize policymakers to act now?

Tharman: I think it's misplaced to think that structural reforms only pay off over the medium to long term.

Our real problem today is a lack of confidence in the medium to long term. That lack of confidence inhibits today's activity and today's growth.

Consumers and businesses may not be perfectly rational actors, but they do look to the future. If they're worried about the future, they curb their spending today. They curb their investments. They curb their consumption. So if we want to get out of today's problems we have to address tomorrow's problems today.

If we do that we lift confidence, and we should see some improvement even in the short-term. There are lots of examples. If you look at Spain, in fact, it's quite interesting how structural reforms in the labor market, and in some other areas, have had a relatively quick transmission into today's growth. Mexico is another classic example of how structural reforms didn't require them to go through a very long period of retrenchment or a long downturn before they finally got to the end of the tunnel.

So structural reforms address the critical gap that we see in the world today, which is confidence and trust. By bringing confidence and trust back for consumers, business, the public at large, you have the best chance of getting out of today's rut.

IMF Survey: One of the unifying themes we heard at the meetings this time was the push for infrastructure investment. How do you ensure the efficiency of this investment?

Tharman: That’s a very good point, and it's a good example of how reforms are not just necessary, but can bring real good. In public investments and infrastructure, bringing in private sector participation is not just about getting more money because it's lacking in the government budget. It's also about getting a keen eye focused on efficiency, and a keen eye focused on economic returns.

A well designed public/private partnership will often be more sustainable financially, more likely to lead to efficient project design and more sustainable operations. A lot of what we're talking about has to get past the generalities into the specifics of designing sustainable public infrastructure with private sector participation. For example, introducing standardised and transparent termination clauses in contracts can reduce the risk premiums demanded by investors, and hence reduce the costs to the public purse.

IMF Survey: What would be the one key message that you would like policymakers to take away from these annual meetings?

Tharman: That we know what needs to be done, and we need to do it. Doing it is something that requires political courage. But importantly, it involves changing the political narrative.

When we talk about labor market reforms, it's not a great sacrifice that population needs to make. It's a way of creating jobs for the young, for women, and sometimes for minorities. Is that politically unattractive? Going against vested interests doesn't mean going against the majority. It means you are uplifting possibilities for people, and particularly for the youth.

IMFC Chair Tharman: Real problem today is lack of confidence in the future.