薩克斯指出六個全球變革驅動力 全球經濟200年 東西如何消長?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdj-U5rFB7A&ab_channel=

朋友們 你們好,我是哥倫比亞大學的教授傑佛瑞薩克斯,我們正處於全球經濟歷史中非常特殊的200年的尾聲，北大西洋地區主要是歐洲和美國主導著世界經濟，而亞洲在世界經濟中的角色急劇下降，儘管亞洲仍是世界人口重心，這裡有超過一半的世界人口，這些是北大西洋地區佔全球產出份額的估計數，也就是這條上升的頂線，在20世紀中期達到頂峰。

而亞洲佔世界產出的份額在1820年約為60%，但到二戰結束時下降到約20%。眾所周知 在過去70年，亞洲在世界經濟中的份額一直在穩步上升，自二戰結束以及自中華人民共和國成立以來，特別是東亞地區的快速增長。而北大西洋地區在世界經濟中的份額一直在下降。

現在我們處於一個非常不同的時代，而亞洲的增長勢頭強勁，中國經濟實力雄厚，技術的擴散已經改變了世界格局。尤其是，如果我們以購買力平價或國際價格來衡量總產出，中國現在是規模超過美國的經濟體，不是在人均水平上，按國際價格衡量 中國的人均GDP
仍約為美國的三分之一，但就經濟的絕對規模和增長率而言，中國顯然已是世界第一大經濟體。地緣政治格局正因此發生變化，由北大西洋主導的世界，或由美國主導的世界已成為過去。但我認為需要指出的是我們至少有六個全球變革的根本驅動力：
第一是地緣政治 由地緣經濟主導
第二是全球環境危機，氣候變化 污染 生物多樣性喪失，這影響著整個世界
第三是正在進行的巨大人口變遷
第四是各地日益高漲的，對公平和包容的社會訴求，在中國 這個概念叫做共同富裕，但我們需要在各個地方推行社會包容的理念，這是我們這個時代的偉大倫理訴求
第五個根本驅動力是社會數位化，智能機器 人工智能，數位互聯，這正在改變經濟的每一個部門和我們生活的方方面面。我要強調的最後一點，是對幸福感的追求。因為隨著社會變得更富裕，他們發現 人均GDP幾乎無法定義一個社會的幸福感。因此出現了對生活品質的新追求，我們現在面臨重大的制度選擇，以使世界體系正常運轉。

因為我們是如此緊密相連，沒有一個單一的主導國家，美國不再是世界主導國家，也不應該以此為目標。任何一個國家都不應該主導世界，我們需要一個全球體系，這也將是全球和平的關鍵。

有幾個領域，需要全球合作來消除全球貧困。

中國用兩代人的時間展示了如何實現這一點，從普遍貧困到2020年消除貧困，這非常了不起。

需要全球合作來保護地球

需要全球合作來減少不平等，制止避稅天堂非法的全球活動，逃避責任。我們需要合作 而不是霸權，我們需要推進核裁軍。我們確實需要在數位技術方面開展合作，以保護隱私 避免網路戰爭，我們絕對需要在氣候變化問題上，進行強有力的合作。

我們需要美國和中國對世界其他國家說作為當今世界最大的兩個大國，都堅定支持聯合國憲章和世界人權宣言，並致力於在這些普世框架内開展充分合作。

我想強調的是我們正處在一個新的地緣政治時代，一個後美國時代，但這並不意味著一個新的霸權，而是意味著全球合作意味著加強多邊主義
謝謝

greetings friends I'm Jeffrey saaks
University professor at Columbia
University we are at the end of a very
unusual 200 years of global economic
history in which the North Atlantic
region by that I mean Europe and the
United States primarily dominated the
world economy and in which Asia's role
in the world economy uh fell
precipitously even though Asia remained
home to well over half of the world's
population these are estimates of the
share of global output in the North
Atlantic region that is the uh Top Line
that rises to reach a peak around the
middle of the 20th century and the Asia
share of world output which starts out
at about 60% of world output in
1820 but then Falls to around 20% of
world output by the end of World War II
as we know is that the share of Asia in
the world economy uh has been rising
steadily for the last 70 years uh since
the end of World War II and the founding
of the People's Republic and the rapid
growth especially of East Asia and the
share of the world economy in the North
Atlantic region has
been uh diminishing now we are in a very
different era and uh Asia's growth
China's a strong economy uh and the uh
diffusion of technology has changed uh
all we know in particular if we measure
gross output at purchasing power prices
or at International prices China is now
the larger economy compared with the
United States not in per capita terms uh
where China is still roughly onethird of
the US in per capita GDP measured in
international prices but in absolute
size of the economy and in rate of
growth China is obviously uh now uh the
largest economy in the world now the
geopolitics are Chang in of course
because of this the idea of a North
Atlantic Le world or a US Le world is p
but I think it's important to note that
we have at least six fundamental drivers
of global change the first is
geopolitics led by
geoeconomics the second is the Global
Environmental crisis climate change
pollution loss of biodiversity which
affects the whole world the third is the
enormous demographic TR change is
underway the fourth is rising social
demands everywhere for fairness and
inclusion in China the concept is common
Prosperity but we need the idea of
social inclusion everywhere it is the
great ethical demand of our age the
fifth fundamental driver is the
digitalization of society smart machines
artificial intelligence uh digital
connectivity
this is transforming every sector of the
economy and every aspect of our lives
and the last point I would emphasize is
the Quest for well-being because as
societies get richer they find out that
GDP per person hardly defines what is
well-being in a society so there is a
new quest for the quality of life we now
face major institutional choices is to
get the world system to work properly
because we're so interconnected there is
no single dominant country the United
States is no longer the world dominant
country nor should it aim to be no
single country should dominate the world
we need a global system and that will be
key for Global Peace as well there are
several areas where Global cooperation
is needed to end Global poverty China
has shown how this can be done
remarkably in two generations in China
from pervasive poverty to the end of
poverty by
2020 Global cooperation to protect the
planet Global cooperation to cut down on
inequality stopping tax Havens illicit
Global activities uh evasion of
responsibilities
we need cooperation not
hegemony we need nuclear disarmament to
move forward we do need cooperation on
digital Technologies for protecting
privacy for avoiding cyber warfare we
definitely need strong cooperation on
climate change and we need the United
States and China to say to the rest of
the world that as the two largest powers
of the world today both stand
strongly in favor of the UN Charter and
the universal Declaration of Human
Rights and aim fully to cooperate within
those uh Universal Frameworks so this I
think is the uh point that I want to
emphasize we are in a new geopolitical
age a post American age but this doesn't
mean a new hegemon it means Global
cooperation it means reinforcing
multilateralism thank you
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