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普京的真正目标不只乌克兰

(2022-02-25 07:31:01) 下一个

普京的真正目标不只乌克兰,还有美国的“谎言帝国”

ROGER COHEN  2022年2月25日
 
周四,普京总统准备在克里姆林宫会见俄罗斯商界。周四,普京总统准备在克里姆林宫会见俄罗斯商界。 POOL PHOTO BY ALEKSEY NIKOLSKYI
 
巴黎——普京总统已经命令俄军进入乌克兰,但他明确表示,他的真正目标并不只在这个邻国,还在于美国的“谎言帝国”,他还威胁称,“任何试图干预我们的人,都将面临其历史上前所未见的后果。”
 
周四,在另一场充斥着历史积怨和指控西方对俄罗斯长期图谋不轨的冗长讲话中,普京提醒了所有人,俄罗斯“仍是世界上最强大的核国家之一”,并“在多个尖端武器领域具备一定优势”。
 
普京的讲话实际上就是在为入侵辩护,比数十年来世界主要领导人的任何宣言都更像核战威胁。他的直接目的再明显不过:通过表明他将毫不犹豫地升级局势,来阻止西方可能采取的任何军事行动。
 
有了俄罗斯核武库的加持,他表示,“一切潜在的进犯者若是直接攻击我们的国家,都必将遭遇失败和厄运。”他还说:“在这一点上,一切必要的决定都已作出。”
 
普京对乌克兰的入侵和直白露骨的核威胁粉碎了欧洲的安全理念和数代以来这里对于和平的设想。二战后创造出如此稳定繁荣局面的欧洲计划已经进入了一个充满不确定和对抗性的新阶段。
 
在普京决定入侵乌克兰前夕,一批西方领导人前往莫斯科拜谒,试图说服普京收回成命。美方实际上拿出了回归军备控制的提议;如果普京是对现有安全框架不满意,法国总统马克龙也愿意寻求重新协商。
周二,在乌克兰夏斯提亚,由于停电和断水,人们从井里取水。俄罗斯发动军事袭击后,远处升起了浓烟。
周二,在乌克兰夏斯提亚,由于停电和断水,人们从井里取水。俄罗斯发动军事袭击后,远处升起了浓烟。 TYLER HICKS/THE NEW YORK TIMES
 
马克龙以及德国总理朔尔茨真心——或许是天真地——相信,他们能让普京恢复理智,这已经说明他们所处的世界存在着怎样的鸿沟。这位俄罗斯领导人并不打算用锋利的手术刀刺破欧洲的安全秩序,而是要以冷战的方式,用一把钝刀切割出什么属于我们,什么属于你们。
 
欧洲的弱点再次显露出来。马克龙周四表示,普京“决意对我们欧洲数十年来的和平稳定进行最严重的破坏”。在谈到乌克兰人时他说,“他们的自由就是我们的自由。”
但无论是欧洲国家还是美国,都不打算为了这份自由冒上生命危险。接下来的问题就是,他们要如何为普京划下红线。
 
在2008年与格鲁吉亚短暂交战、2014年吞并克里米亚、2014年在乌克兰东部策划军事冲突制造出两处分离地区、以及2015年对叙利亚的军事干预后,普京显然已经发现,对于俄罗斯使用武力推进战略目标的意愿,美国或其欧洲盟友并不会做出回应。
 
“俄罗斯希望看到欧洲动荡,因为武力是它的王牌,”法国前大使迈克尔·杜克洛斯表示。“不论欧洲抱有怎样的幻想,俄罗斯想要的从来都不是新的安全秩序。普京早已认定,与西方对抗才是他的最佳选项。”
 
哈佛大学肯尼迪学院国际事务教授史蒂芬·沃尔特表示,关于核冲突的说法“令人担忧”。“但我很难相信的是,不管在何种情况下,会有任何世界领导人——包括普京在内——愿意认真考虑动用核武器。原因很简单,他们都明白后果会怎样,”他说。
 
尽管如此,历史已经表明,有世界大国参与的欧洲战争可能演变出失控后果。乌克兰若陷入长期战争,最终可能会殃及波兰、匈牙利或斯洛伐克。
在俄罗斯国防部发布的这张资料图中,一枚亚尔斯洲际弹道导弹于本月早些时候从俄罗斯的一处秘密地点发射,当时俄罗斯试射了高超音速弹道导弹、巡航导弹和可携带核弹头的弹道导弹。
在俄罗斯国防部发布的这张资料图中,一枚亚尔斯洲际弹道导弹于本月早些时候从俄罗斯的一处秘密地点发射,当时俄罗斯试射了高超音速弹道导弹、巡航导弹和可携带核弹头的弹道导弹。 RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY/VIA AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
 
中欧与波罗的海国家是北约对抗俄罗斯的实际前线,在未来一段时间,这里都将处于真实的威胁之中。
 
在入侵发生后已经不再那么渺茫的一种不祥前景是,曾要求北约从前苏联控制的国家撤出、回到1997年东扩前局面的普京,最终将把注意力转向立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚,这三个波罗的海小国正是北约国家如今的前线。
 
杜克洛斯表示,普京的目的很可能是在基辅建立一个俄罗斯傀儡政府,如果达成此目的,“他还想在波罗的海国家做同样的事情。”
 
曾在“二战”后被苏联帝国征服的这三个国家都于2004年加入北约。拜登总统放话称,美国及其盟友将“捍卫北约的每一寸领土”,意味着即使俄罗斯进攻爱沙尼亚这样的小国,也可能点燃冲突。
 
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,波罗的海三国立即启动了北约创始公约的第四条款,该条款允许成员国在领土完整受到威胁时进行磋商。北约因此召开了紧急会议。
周四,拜登总统在白宫东厅就俄罗斯袭击乌克兰发表讲话。
周四,拜登总统在白宫东厅就俄罗斯袭击乌克兰发表讲话。 SARAHBETH MANEY/THE NEW YORK TIMES
 
这些国家的担忧充分说明了俄罗斯的入侵已经颠覆了欧洲安全和欧洲人的设想,而这种状况似乎肯定会持续下去。
 
但沃尔特指出,在乌克兰问题上,如果“俄罗斯比任何国家都在意,并更有能力左右短期结果”,那么当普京的行动范围扩大,平衡就会开始改变。到那时,“信念和实力的对抗就将转而对我们有利。”他还表示,“即便比昨天的可能性更大,但我在核战中丧生的几率还是微乎其微的。”
 
美国坚决认为俄罗斯将不可避免地进行侵略行为,欧洲国家——尤其是法国——通常认为这是过于危言耸听,但这些分歧在追求外交的过程中被掩盖了。
 
欧洲人所坚信的外交努力最终注定要失败,因为日益孤立的普京将自己置身于复仇主义的愤怒之中。他似乎看到自己在独自作战,敌人是美国以及在乌克兰被他称为“由主要北约国家支持”的“极右翼民族主义者和新纳粹分子”。
 
在过去的二十年里,普京不断积累的愤怒集中于他眼中31年前苏联解体后西方对俄罗斯的羞辱和以及随之而来的北约东扩,后者的目的是保护像波兰这样在莫斯科极权统治时期受尽冷战之苦的国家。
 
但这位俄罗斯领导人的愤怒显然已经形成一种吞噬一切的世界观,认为美国恶贯满盈。在军事领域上,这在未来几年意味着什么还有待观察。
本月早些时候,在爱沙尼亚拉斯纳的军事训练期间,来自爱沙尼亚和英国的北约“加强前沿存在”战斗群。
本月早些时候,在爱沙尼亚拉斯纳的军事训练期间,来自爱沙尼亚和英国的北约“加强前沿存在”战斗群。 PAULIUS PELECKIS/GETTY IMAGES
 
“美国给世界许多地区带去法律和秩序,但几乎在每个地方都造成血淋淋、无法治愈的伤口以及国际恐怖主义和极端主义的诅咒,”普京说。美国在全球的所作所为是“骗子行径”。
 
他继续说:“因此,可以有充分的理由和信心说,由美国以自己的形象和样子组成的整个所谓的西方集团,整体而言就是同一个‘谎言帝国’。”
 
然而普京似乎并不在意俄罗斯入侵的一系列动作是惊人的欺人之谈,但这也是意料之中。
这种欺人之谈包括对“基辅政权”犯下的“羞辱和种族灭绝”未经证实的指控;俄罗斯承认顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克分离主义地区的独立,以便这些“人民共和国”可以向“俄罗斯求助”;并声称因此俄罗斯根据《联合国宪章》有权通过派遣军队“使乌克兰去军事化和去纳粹化”来回应援助请求。
 
最后,普京似乎毫不犹豫地命令俄罗斯进入乌克兰。他指责基辅当局——在他看来都是新纳粹篡位者——渴望“获得核武器”以与俄罗斯进行不可避免的“对决”。
 
他似乎忘记了,乌克兰在1994年根据《布达佩斯备忘录》的协议放弃了曾经拥有的庞大核武库。俄罗斯是签署该协议的国家之一,承诺作为交换,它永远不会对乌克兰使用武力或威胁,并将尊重其主权和现有边界。
 
看来也没什么用。

Beyond Ukraine, the Target Is What Putin Calls America’s ‘Empire of Lies’

The Russian leader is consumed by revanchist fury and convinced of a relentless Western plot against Moscow.

 

President Vladimir V. Putin on his way to a meeting with Russian businessmen at the Kremlin on Thursday.

President Vladimir V. Putin on his way to a meeting with Russian businessmen at the Kremlin on Thursday.Credit...Pool photo by Aleksey Nikolskyi

PARIS — President Vladimir V. Putin has ordered Russian troops into Ukraine but made clear his true target goes beyond his neighbor to America’s “empire of lies,” and he threatened “consequences you have never faced in your history” for “anyone who tries to interfere with us.”

In another rambling speech full of festering historical grievances and accusations of a relentless Western plot against his country, Mr. Putin reminded the world on Thursday that Russia “remains one of the most powerful nuclear states” with “a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons.”

In effect, Mr. Putin’s speech, intended to justify the invasion, seemed to come closer to threatening nuclear war than any statement from a major world leader in recent decades. His immediate purpose was obvious: to head off any possible Western military move by making clear he would not hesitate to escalate.

Given Russia’s nuclear arsenal, he said, “there should be no doubt that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.” He added: “All necessary decisions have been taken in this regard.”

In the run-up to Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a train of Western leaders made the pilgrimage to Moscow to try to persuade Mr. Putin not to do it. The Americans essentially offered a return to arms control; President Emmanuel Macron of France was prepared to search for a new security architecture if Mr. Putin was unhappy with the old one.

Smoke rising in the distance following a Russian military strike as people gathered water from a well after losing electricity and running water in Shchastia, Ukraine, on Tuesday.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

The sincere, perhaps naïve, belief of Mr. Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany in the possibility of bringing Mr. Putin to reason suggests the gulf between the worlds they inhabit. The Russian leader was not interested in taking a fine scalpel to Europe’s security order, but rather a blunt knife to carve out, Cold-War-style, what’s mine and what’s yours.

Europe has rediscovered its vulnerability. Mr. Macron said on Thursday that Mr. Putin had “decided to bring about the gravest violation of peace and stability in our Europe for decades.” Of Ukrainians, he said, “Their liberty is our liberty.”

After his short war in Georgia in 2008, his annexation of Crimea in 2014, his orchestration in 2014 of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine that created two breakaway regions, and his military intervention in Syria in 2015, Mr. Putin has clearly concluded that Russia’s readiness to use its armed forces to advance its strategic aims will go unanswered by the United States or its European allies.

“Russia wants insecurity in Europe because force is its trump card,” said Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador. “They never wanted a new security order, whatever the European illusions. Putin decided some time ago that confrontation with the West was his best option.”

Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, said the talk of nuclear conflict was “worrisome.” “But I find it difficult to believe that any world leader, including Mr. Putin, would seriously contemplate using nuclear weapons in any of the scenarios we have here, for the simple reason that they understand the consequences,” he said.

Still, history has demonstrated that European wars involving a major global power can spiral out of control. A long war in Ukraine could eventually bleed into Poland, Hungary or Slovakia.

In this handout image released by the Russian Defence Ministry, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched at an undisclosed location in Russia earlier this month when Russia test-fired hypersonic ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.Credit...Russian Defence Ministry/via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Central Europe and the Baltic States, effectively NATO’s front line against Russia, will live with a sense of credible threat for some time.

One ominous scenario — remote but less so than before the invasion — is that Mr. Putin, who has demanded that NATO pull back out of formerly Soviet-controlled countries to its posture before enlargement in 1997, will eventually turn his attention to Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, the small Baltic States that now form the front line of NATO countries.

Mr. Duclos suggested Mr. Putin’s aim may well be to install a puppet Russian government in Kyiv and that, if he succeeded, “he will want the same thing in the Baltic States.”

All three countries, subjugated in the Soviet empire after World War II, joined NATO in 2004. President Biden has vowed that the United States and its allies will “defend every inch of NATO territory,” meaning that even a Russian attack on tiny Estonia could trigger a conflagration.

Immediately after the Russian invasion, the three Baltic States and Poland triggered Article 4 of the alliance’s founding treaty, which allows members to hold consultations when they feel their territorial integrity is threatened. NATO met in an emergency session as a result.

President Biden delivering remarks on Russia’s attack on Ukraine in the East Room of the White House in Washington on Thursday.Credit...Sarahbeth Maney/The New York Times

These nations’ fears were one clear sign of how the Russian invasion has upended European security and European assumptions in ways that appear certain to last.

Understand Russia’s Attack on Ukraine


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What is at the root of this invasion? Russia considers Ukraine within its natural sphere of influence, and it has grown unnerved at Ukraine’s closeness with the West and the prospect that the country might join NATO or the European Union. While Ukraine is part of neither, it receives financial and military aid from the United States and Europe.

But Mr. Walt noted that if, in Ukraine, “Russia cares more than anyone else and has greater means to affect the outcome in the short term,” that equation begins to shift if Mr. Putin reaches further afield. At that point, “resolve and capabilities start to shift back in our favor.” He added that “my chances of dying in a nuclear war still feel infinitesimally small, even if greater than yesterday.”

European states, particularly France, generally viewed the American conviction that a Russian invasion was almost inevitable as too alarmist, but differences were papered over in the pursuit of diplomacy.

In the end, the diplomatic efforts Europeans believed in were doomed because an increasingly isolated Mr. Putin has worked himself into a revanchist fury. He appears to see himself standing alone against the United States and what he portrays as the “far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis” that “the leading NATO countries are supporting” in Ukraine.

Mr. Putin’s steadily mounting anger over the past two decades has been focused on the perceived Western humiliation of Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union 31 years ago and on NATO’s subsequent expansion eastward to safeguard countries like Poland that suffered during the Cold War under Moscow’s totalitarian domination.

But the Russian leader has evidently developed his outrage into a consuming worldview of American iniquity. What this will mean in military terms in the coming years remains to be seen.

NATO Enhanced Forward Presence battle groups from Estonia and the United Kingdom during military training in Lasna, Estonia earlier this month.Credit...Paulius Peleckis/Getty Images

“Nearly everywhere, in many regions of the world where the United States brought its law and order, this created bloody, unhealing wounds and the curse of international terrorism and extremism,” Mr. Putin said. America’s conduct across the globe was “con-artist behavior.”

He continued: “Therefore, one can say with good reason and confidence that the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety, the very same ‘empire of lies.’”

It has included unsubstantiated accusations of “humiliation and genocide” perpetrated by the “Kyiv regime”; Russian recognition of the independence of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk so that these “people’s republics” could ask “Russia for help”; and the claim that therefore Russia was within its rights, under the United Nations Charter, in responding to a request for assistance by sending troops “to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine.”

In the end, Mr. Putin appears to have had no hesitation in ordering Russia into Ukraine. He accused the authorities in Kyiv — all neo-Nazi usurpers, in his view — of aspiring to “acquire nuclear weapons” for an inevitable “showdown” with Russia.

He appeared to have forgotten that Ukraine once had a vast nuclear arsenal before it gave it up in 1994 under an agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum. Russia was one of the countries that signed the accord, promising in exchange that it would never use force or threats against Ukraine and would respect its sovereignty and existing borders.

So much for that.

 

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