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经济师:降温措施虽带来调整 私宅价格不致大跌

(2011-12-09 23:12:18) 下一个

(2011-12-10)

● 何丽丽 报道

  新的房地产降温措施出台,经济师预计我国的住宅房地产价格将有所调整,但不至于“大跌”。

  巴克莱资本亚太区除日本外策略主管兼董事德斯巴勒思(Olivier Desbarres)昨天在一个亚太区经济展望记者会上回答媒体问题时表示,有足够资金购买房地产的买家,不会因为额外印花税而打消购买房地产的念头。

  他指出,海外买家仍积极在本地买楼,显示他们对我国的经济还是信心十足。

  巴克莱资本在新加坡的经济师巴加利亚(Rahul Bajoria)则指出,新加坡是亚洲区首选的避风港,因此政府控制房地产价格的做法是明智的。

  他也认为,本地房价料会逐步回落,但类似1996年到1998年的暴跌情况相信不会重演,这是因为住宅需求仍然强劲,而且政府的出发点是稳定房地产市场,若情况急转而下,政府可能会取消一些降温措施。

  由于可大量 借贷买房,德斯巴勒思不认为新的降温措施会促使投资者将原本计划拿来购买房地产的资金转入股票、债券或其他资产类别。

  在经济前景方面,巴加利亚指出,多数亚洲经济体料在明年上半年见底。

  他指出,我国经济明年的增长料将放慢至3%,比今年5.2%的增长预测低,上半年的增长步伐将比下半年来得缓慢,主要因为佳节期间过后的电子与药剂产品需求将放慢。

  巴克莱资本预料我国经济在本季度将萎缩2%(年率化),巴加利亚认为,药剂领域可能没有办法维持上个季度的强劲增长,而随着贷款业务增长放慢,金融服务领域也将放缓,其他经济周期敏感度较高的领域也将受影响。在通货膨胀方面,巴克莱资本预计我国明年的通胀率将放慢至3.1%,比今年全年的约5%来得低。巴加利亚说,这主要是因为底线效应(base effect)较高,而住房成本、租金以及拥车证价格相信不会出现大幅增长。

  针对我国的人力市场展望,巴加利亚指出,新加坡目前的失业率为2%,明年的新增工作涨幅相信将放慢,不过大规模的裁员活动相信不会发生。

  他说,政府在确保人力市场维持紧缩状态这方面扮演着重要角色,若经济局势转恶劣,他相信政府将推出类似“雇用补贴计划”的措施,而在明年的财政预算案,他相信政府会继续实行同提高生产力相关的政策。

  巴加利亚相信,亚洲经济体包括新加坡接下来将采取财政政策,如展开基础设施项目来刺激经济与人力市场。他指出,这是因为本区域经济体多数的公共债务对国内生产总值比例并不高,因此有足够财务能力实施财政政策,而财政政策也比货币政策更快见效。

  在明年4月份的政策会议上,巴加利亚预计金融管理局将维持让新元逐步升值的政策。

  对于欧洲银行去杆杠化(deleveraging)的行动,德斯巴勒思指出,新加坡和香港对欧洲银行贷款的曝险主要来自英国,而英国银行目前也仍在继续扩大在本区域的贷款业务,因此我国受影响的程度并不大。

  德斯巴勒思强调,和2008年不同的是,目前本区域的贸易活动虽然已经放慢,不过还算强劲。他指出,有了2008年环球金融风暴的经验,政策决策者将更有经验应付任何突发状况。

*[email protected]

巴克莱资本在新加坡的经济师巴加利亚认为,本地房价料会逐步回落,但类似1996年到1998年的暴跌情况相信不会重演,这是因为住宅需求仍然强劲,而且政府的出发点是稳定房地产市场,若情况急转而下,政府可能会取消一些降温措施。

[社论] 私宅投资需求过度值得关注

(2011-12-10)

社论

2011年12月10日

政府日前突然出台房地产降温新措施,有人形容那是晴天霹雳,也有人称之为重炮出击。新加坡产业发展商公会 (REDAS)则对政府在决定采取新降温措施之前没同业界协商表示失望,并指它在市场前景不确定的情况下宣布这项降温措施显得不合时宜。与此同时,市场分 析师已纷纷对私宅需求将下降的幅度做出各种预测。

  新一轮针对外来投资者(包括个人与公司)的降温措施,实际效果如何,还有待观察,但它 所产生的即时的休克(shock)却是显而易见的。包括房地产发展商在内的诸多业内人士,看来都有猝不及防之感,但这种对市场极度敏感的措施,确实没有同 业界协商的空间,否则其有效性必然要大打折扣。

  新措施规定,非个人投资者与外国买家缴付的买方印花税大幅度上调。除了继续支付原有约 3%的印花税率,这些买家还须缴付10%的额外买方印花税(Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty)。非个人投资者指的是公司、信托和集体投资计划等。由于事前没有什么明显征兆,因此,新措施促使一些潜在外来买家驻足观望,以及发展商采取应急 措施,设法止泻,都是意料中事。市场人士一般都预料需求的势头将会受到遏制。有分析师预测高档房地产的价格将在未来6个月内下跌15%至20%,有者甚至 预测房价下跌幅度会高达30%。不过这些都只是臆测。

  值得讨论的是新降温措施的必要性。国家发展部和财政部的联合文告指出,尽管目前经 济前景充满不确定因素,私宅市场的需求依然坚挺。鉴于股市的不确定性以及市场利率保持低迷,新加坡私宅继续吸引本地和外国投资者。但过度的投资需求将令房 地产周期波动较大,并因而加大经济和银行体系所承受的风险。对外国买家征收更高额的买方印花税是必要的,此举的目的在于推动房地产市场的可持续发展,使其 价格增幅与经济基本面保持一致。政府公布的数据显示,在今年下半年至今购买本地私宅的外国人比率,已达到19%,比2009年上半年的7%多了许多。目前 的房价已比1996年次季度的高峰高出13%,比2008年次季度则高出16%。

  我国私宅之所以受到外国买家青睐,并成为投资首选之 一,显然和我们的政治稳定、治安良好、法制完善等有关。在世界经济极度不稳定、利率持续低迷、欧美等国房地产市场溃败、中国严厉实行房价调控等情况下,新 加坡成了极少数世界游资相中的投资目的地并非偶然。但这却给我们的经济带来了资产价格膨胀(asset price inflation)的问题,也即资产价格的增幅脱离了经济的基本面。

  政府早前已预计,受到欧元区主权债务危机等因素影响,出口需求放 慢,我国明年的经济将会显著萎缩,但是,外来买家对本地私宅的需求却依然殷切,这不仅刺激本地买家进场,也导致私宅价格的迅速膨胀。经济前景看淡,私宅价 格却反其道而行,政府显然不能坐视这种扭曲的房地产投资和价格趋势,有必要即时出手遏制,并设法把充沛的外来资金引向生产性的投资。虽然有人觉得,在此时 此刻出手,不合时宜,可能增加市场的悲观气氛,但抑制热钱大量流入房市,避开必会与之俱来的经济与金融风险是更加重要的。我们也相信,降温措施是可控的, 政府必会密切留意追踪接下来的发展,确保新措施能起到预期的效果,并尽量减少其可能产生的负面效应。

私宅销量与价格 未来数月料出现跌势

赵恺健 (2011-12-10)

  政府周三宣布新一轮房地产降温措施后,这两天的私宅销售量还没有明显出现大幅度下滑,不过市场人士预计接下来数个月将看到私宅在销售量和价格方面都出现一定的下跌。

  博纳集团(PropNex)高级副总裁林永富表示,这两天有的原已决定要购买的买家临时表示要退出,不过人数不多,包括了打算买来居住和投资的买主。

  在前天起生效的新措施下,外国买家除了继续支付原有约为房价3%的印花税率,还须缴付10%的额外买方印花税,显然将大大影响买气。

  不过林永富指出,这项措施才推出两天,因此不太会马上看到其对销售量的影响,造成的冲击还需要时间才会在市场中被完全反映出来。

  他预测,再过两个月就能看到转售私宅销售量的下跌,加上每年在年底过年时都会有一定销售量的下跌,因此觉得保守估计也至少会下跌三四成,甚至更多。

  然而,他也认为本地买家若是想把房子买下来长期居住的,对这个群体的影响反而不会太大,因为他们找到适合与合乎心意的房子还是会买下来,不想错过了。

  Dennis Wee房地产经纪行董事许家荣则表示,由于他们的机构是每个月统计销售量的,因此这两天是否有明显的下滑无法做出评断。

  不过他指出这个月的销售量一定会受影响,影响幅度还比较难预测,这是因为很多买家与业主都表示要先按兵不动,静观其变。

  对于私宅销售量未来走势,他则估计在下一季度可以看到约10%到20%的下滑。许家荣表示,每当政府发布一项新措施时,大家都会需要一些时间来分析和消化,因此目前可能还看不到措施带来的全面影响。

  他也指出,其实这项措施对于急需购买房子或是遇到真的钟意房子的本地买主而言,影响不大,因为他们依然会买,而不会等待价格在未来可能下跌时才出手。

  此外,本地11家房地产经纪公司联合设立的房地产交易网站SRX,记录了每天的交易讯息,包括销售量与成交价等。

  负责为此网站建立数据管道和应用软件的StreetSine公司董事李俊旸表示,虽然网站记录了今天的交易,但只有在客户缴交了订金,才算是当天的交易,因此这些客户可能在三个星期甚至三个月前就做好要买房子的决定了,目前还看不出交易量是否有下跌。

  在价格方面,博纳总裁伊斯迈预测,市场价格将会出现调整,在接下来的六个月中,核心中央区私宅价格会下跌约15至20%,大众私宅价格则下调10至15%。

  他表示,大部分买家应该都会先等待市场调整,并仔细观察此降温措施的影响后,才会再度入场,核心中央区的交易量可能会下跌约40%。

  许家荣对于价格调整的估计则比较保守,他认为私宅价格在下个季度只会下跌约5至10%,并不会掉太多。

  他认为很多外国投资者也不会急着马上把房子脱手,因此也不会在市场调整前急于出售房子,而会选择继续持有这些资产直到市场逐渐恢复。

  另外,其实这个新政策也有例外,与我国签署自由贸易协定的五个国家的公民,是无需支付外国买家的额外10%印花税的。

  这五个国家分别是美国、瑞士、列支敦斯登、挪威和冰岛,这些国家的公民在我国买房时,只需要缴付和新加坡人一样的印花税。

《联合早报》










A different take on latest property curbs
Straits Times: Sat, Dec 10















THE latest round of measures to promote what the government claims would be 'a stable and sustainable property market' begs many questions. Let's begin with the basic parameters. First of all, the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) is applicable only to the private residential segment, not to other segments such as office, retail, industrial, HDB shops, HDB flats, Executive Condominiums (ECs), etc. So perhaps a more appropriate claim should be 'a stable and sustainable private real estate sector'.

Next, the key objective listed was 'to promote a sustainable residential property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals'.

Prices of private residential properties have continued to rise, albeit more slowly in the last two quarters. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, prices are now 13 per cent above the peak in Q2 1996 and 16 per cent above the more recent peak in Q2 2008.

In the many overseas seminars I have spoken at, I am always happy to reassure investors that as a broad guiding principle, foreigners and Singaporeans are not treated any differently when investing in Singapore. However, now we have imposed a 10 per cent ABSD on foreigners who purchase residential units. If we apply these stamp duties on the residential real estate asset class, does it imply that other asset types, such as commercial properties, stocks, capital equipment, cars, COEs, etc are also likely future candidates for additional stamp duties if the public perception is that a particular asset is beyond Singaporeans' reach?

Or, if the stock market becomes too hot and the Straits Times Index surpasses the October 2007 peak of 3,850 points by 20 per cent, reaching, say, 4,600 points, will the authorities also implement higher stamp duties on foreigners' stock investments, 'owing to the small market size of the SGX' to make the stocks more affordable for Singaporeans?

What about stamp duty on foreigners' purchase of COEs because the COE pool is limited? What is the significance of measuring our private residential prices against the previous peaks? And what has this got to do with foreigners today, given that in 2006-2008, prime properties such as St Regis Residences, Ardmore II, Sentosa Cove, Orchard Residences and were snapped up mainly by foreigners.

Most foreigners invested in Singapore's long-term future as part of their portfolio diversification and wealth protection for their families. Why were such measures to curb foreign ownership (individuals, families or institutional funds) of residential properties not implemented at that time when the luxury residential sector was booming hot?

I have expressed in several articles that the climb in the private residential index is the result of strong sales at new record prices in mass-market launches. This climb is mainly contributed by Singaporeans and Singapore permanent residents (PRs). The proportion of foreigners purchasing in the mass market is low, at 10-20 per cent as the mass-market residential segment is not considered 'investment grade'. I have also provided data to show that foreigners have not been significant contributors to the increase in mass-market home prices.

The fundamental cause of the climb in mass-market prices has been the strength of HDB resale prices, where the rate of growth is higher than that of the private residential index. Owners of HDB flats feel confident about the rising values of their flats. And since money in savings accounts devalues due to the prolonged 5 per cent inflation, and mortgage costs are low, they look for safe, secure investments. This leads them to purchase private residential properties for rental income and as an inflation hedge.

Unfortunately, the new measures do not address the rising HDB resale prices and so the effect on mass-market private apartment prices may be limited. Likewise, newly launched ECs and ECs that are not yet privatised will not be hit hard in terms of volume and price.

I believe that landed properties may suffer a direct, but limited, impact. A handful of Singaporean investors who buy many landed properties for the long term will be affected. They may not mind paying the extra 3 per cent ABSD if they can find their ideal landed property investments. That said, a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) collector wishing to invest in a $30 million house will be paying around $1.8 million (6 per cent) stamp duty if this were his third or more residential property. If he were to purchase the GCB under a trust, for wealth transfer purposes, a $3 million stamp duty would also apply.

This round of measures will positively benefit the strata office, retail and industrial segments of the property market. Many mass-market investors will surely flock to these products, as well as more exotic overseas properties. We should expect to see more 150-sq-ft retail units or tiny industrial units for sale. Time will tell whether such investments will turn out to be stable and sustainable for the property market, or not.

The biggest impact will be felt by developers of luxury residences who are more dependent on foreign investors. Several developers have overseas sales offices to promote their Singapore residential products. However, foreign investors wishing to buy a $10 million Orchard Road property will now think many times about paying almost $1.3 million (13 per cent) in buyer stamp duties. This is not a measure that increases the amount of equity foreign investors need to put into their properties; it is a tax which once paid cannot be recovered. Our residential market has just got uglier in terms of investment returns.

The other stakeholder group directly hit by the measures are the real estate agents, many of whom are active in promoting Singapore residential properties in Indonesia, China, Malaysia and Hong Kong. Following closely behind would be the relationship managers in private banks active in prospecting foreign high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and getting them to park their investments under Singapore trusts. Then we have the priority bankers, the mortgage bankers, the contractors and interior designers who serve the high end market. Many rice bowls, if not already shaken by the global jitters, will surely be shaken now.

My main worry remains: What is the signal perceived by foreigners?

There are genuine foreign buyers who prefer to purchase the roofs over their heads. For example, A*Star and our medical fraternity have gone overseas to attract foreign doctors and medical researchers to work in Singapore. They may relocate here for our high quality of medical practice but these professionals also need homes for their families. Not every foreigner likes to pay rent. Many prefer to build up equity through purchasing their own homes and taking bank loans.

There is another group under the MAS Financial Investor Scheme (FIS) worth mentioning. HNW families applying for the FIS invest $10 million into Singapore are allowed to apply $2 million towards the purchase of a residential property for their own use. Probably the most expensive PR scheme in the world, the FIS has a long queue of HNWIs, some having waited over a year for approval. The latest measures mean that if they choose to apply $2 million of their $10 million investment into a residential unit, they need to pay ABSD in excess of $260,000 depending on the value of the property purchased.

Overall, I think these measures will effectively grind the luxury residential segment to a crawl. Foreign residential property funds will also surely stay out while this tax is in place. The measures could be less effective in the mass markets, given the bulk of Outside Central Region (OCR) launches are snapped up by Singaporeans who feel confident about their rising HDB valuations. Recall the queues and fast-paced sales at recent OCR launches.

I would hope for a tweak in the policy to allow foreigners to buy their first home at the existing 3 per cent buyer stamp duty. Many foreigners are here to work and to settle down with their families and they have a genuine need to own one home for shelter. Singapore is a country made successful by the influx of foreigners in the last two centuries and it must remain an open economy in order to survive. The Economic Development Board, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and other government agencies' efforts to attract foreign investors to our shores may be tougher if this signal were read negatively as a protectionist measure.

Foreigners who are already settled here but who have not purchased their homes may feel short-changed by such discriminatory policies, especially when there is insufficient evidence that foreigners are the main cause for the rise in home prices.

With the new measures, are we signalling: Our right hand welcomes you while our left hand blocks you from getting a comfortable life? Would we want the government agencies to slow down the pace in attracting foreign financial institutions and MNCs to expand in Singapore? That will reduce demand for housing but it will also weaken the robust job environment.

This policy aimed at foreigners will harm our reputation as an investment capital. Instead of penalising foreigners with heavy taxes, we could give more incentives to support Singaporeans and Singapore PRs. Already, loan-to-value ratios for purchasing properties are more attractive for Singaporeans than those for foreigners. Let's have more carrots for Singaporeans instead of wielding the stick on foreigners.

  • The writer is CEO of International Property Advisor Pte Ltd and author of the book: 'Real Estate Riches - Understanding Singapore's property market in a volatile economy'


    Source: Business Time

    Analysts expect property prices to soften in 2012

     

    The Singapore private residential property market was hit with two rounds of cooling measures in 2011 – moves widely described by analysts as harsh.

    Coupled with an expected slowdown in the global economy, home-buying decisions may stall in 2012.

    And developers may also roll out more incentives to prop up sales.

    Despite the uncertain economic outlook in 2011, home-buying interest remained healthy judging by the long queues at recent property launches.

    Analysts expect new private homes sales to hit a total of 15,000 to 16,000 units this year, compared to nearly 16,300 units sold in 2010.

    Next year, crowds at property launches could get thinner as weak economic sentiment undermines the confidence people have in keeping their jobs.

    Sales volume for 2012 is likely to dip further to under 14,000 units for the whole year.

    Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “If the transaction volumes were to declined and sustained into 2012, then prices are expected to be affected. From our forecast we think possibly between 10 to 15 percent on the downside.”

    Analysts say there is no chance of recovery for high-end property next year, with prices likely to slide 20 per cent.

    The sale of high-end units was already lacklustre before the government imposed an Additional Buyers’ Stamp duty in December, which will further dampen demand from foreigners.

    Market watchers expect some diversion of investor interest from residential, to other real estate including office and strata industrial properties.

    Meanwhile, the cheaper home loans and genuine latent occupier demand are expected to continue to drive the mass market home segment.

    However, prices for such homes could see a downward correction of about 10 per cent next year

    To mitigate the impact of the cooling measures, experts say developers are likely to dangle a carrot in front of home buyers.

    Chia Siew Chuin, Director, Research & Advisory, Colliers International, said: “They may have to even align their prices to move the sales or even look at incentives, soft sale kind of measures, probably extending rebates in the sense of discounts or even absorbing stamp duty on behalf of buyers or extending other kinds of incentives not only to buyers but also to agents to help them move sales.”

    Developers will also continue to launch new projects, especially those in the suburban areas.

    Donald Han, Vice Chairman, Cushman & Wakefied, said: “We will continue to see more launches coming up for mass market, mainly because the government sales of sites that have been launched in the last 24 months…a record number of over 20 sites will have to come into the market. They (the developers) have to do it now as these are on 99-year leases, unlike the high-end or mid-end projects which are traditionally freehold projects having a longer tenure life.”

    Analysts say developers will also be more measured in their land bids next year, and prices for sites that are less attractive could dip by some 10 to 12 per cent.

    Source : Channel NewsAsia – 14 Dec 2011







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