insight

工程技术,地产投资,信仰家园,时尚生活
个人资料
正文

炒楼受重招打击后 港热钱将转炒商铺股市

(2010-11-23 11:13:58) 下一个

(2010-11-23)《早报导读》

● 戴庆成

中国财经热点

香港地业界人士指出,随着港府出重招遏楼市炒风,二手楼市交投量应声暴跌,反映当局的遏抑炒风措施取得了初步成功,但热钱涌港大势未改,大量资金将涌向其他资产市场。

戴庆成 报道

香港

  香港特区政府出重拳打击住宅炒风之后,有资深楼市炒家估计,部分资金可能会流至商铺炒卖市场,令炒铺火上加油;但也有证券分析员预计,大量热钱将转投股市“炒股”。

  香港地产中介公司美联物业昨天表示,自港府上周五推出新一轮遏抑楼市措施后,在刚过去的周末,十大指标屋苑二手交投量急跌了近八成,跌幅为2007年以来最大,幅度甚于金融海啸。一半屋苑更录得零成交。

  另一地产中介公司利嘉阁地产董事总经理廖伟强预料,本月私人住宅市场的成交量按月会跌幅至少达三成,楼价也有10%的下跌空间。

  当地业界人士指出,随着港府出重招遏楼市炒风,二手楼市交投量应声暴跌,反映当局的遏抑炒风措施取得了初步成功,但热钱涌港大势未改,大量资金将涌向其他资产市场。

  据香港《明报》昨天引述资深炒家估计,港府上周五宣布向两年内转售的住宅物业出重招,征收5%至15%不等的额外印花税,反而商铺短炒仍不受限制,部分资金可能会流至商铺炒卖市场,令炒铺火上加油。

报道指,香港商铺近年炒风比住宅更猛烈。根据香港金融管理局数字显示,商铺价格现已超出1997年9月高峰38.7%,今年第三季“确认人交易”(俗称“摩货”,即未正式成交前转售第三者)金额也创近五年新高。

带起加租潮

  报道指,这股炒风开始带起加租潮连累租户,近月旺角、铜锣湾部分地铺的租金大加近五成,店主唯有扭尽六壬挣扎求存,包括暂时冻结加薪或改为24小时营业增加收入,有老店更因此被迫结业。

  有零售业高层指,在疯狂加租下,估计旺角西洋菜街大型连锁店或有三分之一亏本,续租只为了广告效应。

  美联及中原数据则显示,以旺角登打士街为例,一些200至300平方英尺上下的迷你铺位,租金近月劲升五成至8万(1.34万新元)到13万港元不等,不少小店已无法承受而结业,由特许经营小食店(奶酪、奶茶、炸鸡等)接火棒续租。

  摩货也加剧店铺价格及租金涨势。例如旺角通菜街103号地下及阁楼自置3000平方英尺、经营逾30年的“马健记图书”店铺,创办人去年9月以2600万港元卖出后,原以8万港元月租租回铺位一年,未料买家旋即以3450万港元把铺位“摩出”转售第三者,新买家近日即要求马健记约满后大幅加租近五成。

  马健记职员称,由于找不到租金合理新铺,书店本月底将结业,员工也将因此失业。

  在昨天的立法会财经及房屋事务委员会联席会议上,有立法会议员关注上述现像,促请港府关注及详细探讨商业楼宇炒卖问题,以免影响本地通胀。

  不过,财经事务及库务局局长陈家强回应时强调,商铺买卖纯粹是商业行为,但住宅价高会影响民生,所以要出手压制。

  另一方面,花旗银行的分析报告称,美国推出新一轮量化宽松政策,将持续导致利率低企,并推动资产价格上升,预料香港在政府限制炒楼下,资金更倾向于流通量更高的股市。

报告重申,明年底恒生指数目标为26500点。

  交银国际资产管理基金经理冯时暖也预期,港股短期会有所波动,但热钱仍会流入香港。

  他说,“相对于楼市,政府要控制股市的优先次序较低,故热钱可能会因而集中在股市。”

Mon, Nov 22, 2010
The Business Times


HK steps up fight to cool property prices

HONG Kong imposed additional taxes and raised down payments on residential properties, stepping up a battle against surging prices after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that asset inflation may derail the city's economy.

Homes sold within six months of purchase will incur a 15 per cent stamp duty from today, Financial Secretary John Tsang said in a briefing yesterday. Down payments for homes costing HK$12 million (S$2 million) or more will rise to 50 per cent, from 40 per cent. A stock gauge of developers in Hong Kong fell for the eighth day in nine ahead of the announcements.

'The measures show the government is serious about curbing speculation, and that would impact on market sentiment, leading to a fall in home sales volume,' said David Ng, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland plc. 'Home prices won't see a decline immediately as speculators could still keep their stocks in the low interest rate environment.'

Click Here
Governments from South Korea to Brazil are acting to stem fund inflows into their higher- yielding markets after the US Federal Reserve's expanded monetary stimulus. Hong Kong is resorting to increased taxes and tighter lending to curb home prices that have risen more than 50 per cent since the beginning of 2009 because the island's currency peg to the US dollar prevents the city's de facto central bank from raising interest rates.

'The unusual surge in flat prices has attracted speculators - this, coupled with quantitative easing measures, has distorted the market expectation regarding inflation and asset prices,' Mr Tsang said. 'The government is resolute in maintaining economic stability and curbing any threat to people's livelihoods.'

The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the city's seven-biggest builders, fell 1.3 per cent at the 4pm local time close to the lowest since Oct 29. It has declined 7.6 per cent since this year's peak on Nov 8. It ended the week 4.1 per cent lower, its biggest weekly drop since the five days ended May 7.

Properties resold within 6-12 months will incur a 10 per cent stamp duty, while those resold from 12-24 months will be charged 5 per cent, Mr Tsang said yesterday. The stamp duty will be split between buyers and sellers, he said.

Down payments for homes costing HK$8-12 million will be increased to 40 per cent from 30 per cent, Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan said at a separate briefing yesterday. Mr Chan has said that the Fed's quantitative easing may spur inflows of cash into Hong Kong.

The maximum loan to value for all non-owner occupied residential properties and those held by companies will be lowered to 50 per cent, Mr Chan said.

The government will adopt more measures to make sure that the market is stable, Mr Tsang said. The additional stamp duty 'is quite substantial, and is a way to deter speculation', said Benedict Ma, Hong Kong-based associate director of research at CB Richard Ellis Group Inc, the world's biggest real estate services firm. 'Investors, especially those in the luxury market, will have to reassess whether this is really the right time to get into the market.'

The IMF said in a report on Thursday that Hong Kong's accelerating asset inflation risks causing a bust that leads to deflation and an extended economic 'downturn', and urged further measures to rein in prices. The city has in the past year raised down payment ratios and boosted land supply to curb home prices, which have surpassed a 1997 peak on the back of record low mortgage rates and an influx of mainland Chinese buyers.

In April, Hong Kong raised the tax on homes selling for more than HK$20 million to 4.25 per cent from 3.75 per cent.

This article was first published in The Business Times.

[ 打印 ]
阅读 ()评论 (0)
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.