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女川普不满的美国战争商业模式是个什么模式?--美军援法案分析之二

(2024-04-21 08:41:14) 下一个

昨天(4月20日)美国众议院终于通过了拖延了几个月的对乌援助。在C-SPAN上听到女川普格林的反战演讲,令我对她刮目相看。


       她说乌战打光了乌克兰一代男人,美国出钱,代理人出兵的商业模式太冷酷,太令人恶心(repulsive)了。从艾森豪威尔批判美国的军工复合体开始,人们从不同的角度批判工商业对美国政治的操控。格林大概是第一个把美国的好战定性为商业模式的人,那么格林猛烈抨击的美国战争商业模式到底是什么?


      首先,美国的军工厂要通过战争维持运转。没有战争,军工厂就订单不足,军工厂生存都困难,就没有资金搞研发,搞出能够让美军降维打击的大杀器。宁要弹药紧缺,也不要开工不足。美国挑起乌战,美国军工厂在阿富汗战争结束后马上有了新的业务增长点。但不料巴勒斯坦战争又起,加重了弹药紧缺。现在扩张军工厂,将来战争平息后必然造成军工业萧条。以战养军工是一种很变态的商业模式,美国永远在打仗(forever war),成了一个霸道好战的国家。


      其次,借钱打仗推高了美国债务。美国国会是战争贩子的俱乐部,主战的议员占压倒性多数,但是格林并不孤独。另一个女议员说美国的联邦债务已经32万亿了,她说话的这几分钟美债又增加了500万。美债利息支出已经超过“国防”预算。美债再这么暴增,美元终有崩溃的一天。美国不能再举债,将不得不全线回撤,大美帝国将被打回原型,收缩为美利坚共和国。川普的“美国优先”正是一半美国人认为美国已无力支撑一个帝国的体现。格林正是“美国优先”的急先锋。尽管她还会支持对以色列的军援,但是她认为那些注定要失败的项目应该果断下马,及时止损。西方翘首以待的乌克兰反攻基本上没激起什么涟漪就不了了之,川普和格林这样的算计派共和党不会再肉包子打狗了。


      再次,美国的百年霸权造成意识形态考量高于理性计算,贷款投资讲究回报是必须的,否则再借就难了。乌克兰援助法案以311对112票通过,将近四分之三的众议院无视商业基本原则,使美国的战争机器有了国企的特征。意识形态考量高于理性计算,美元霸权腐蚀了资本主义精神。格林这派的共和党人是茶党,是极端自由主义者(libertarian)。她们崇尚自我奋斗,自我负责,反对大政府,反对管闲事。美国经营一个大帝国就不得不到处管闲事。当大哥就得付出代价,就得大撒币,就不能搞AA制。川普就是不信邪,不掏钱你就别上餐桌,不交足保护费你就别等着老美大哥罩着你。川普要创造21世纪的新型大哥-小弟关系,归根结底就是地主家没余粮了,不能再大手大脚了,得精打细算了。


       最后,美国的代理人战争的商业模式是一种残忍的模式。伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争美国都打得很轻松,为什么都狼狈收尾?归根结底都是老百姓醒悟了,不愿让子弟卖命了。美帝缺人但是不缺军火不差钱。乌战的另一方是核大国,美国可以以此为借口不下场。花美金,死乌克兰人,消耗强敌,美国赚大了。这就是格林不齿的美帝新战争商业模式。乌克兰男人打光或者跑光,乌战就停了。美国的代理人战争的商业模式是建立于乌克兰士兵的士气上的。

       格林从前有各种阴谋论,鬼话连篇,令我不齿,昨日她的一席话令我刮目相看。美国国会辩论越来越像布道会,充斥假大空的神话(俄罗斯将攻击波兰,乌克兰必胜,民主自由对暴君和恐怖主义者之战),格林说一回人话,让人耳目一新。

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井观天 回复 悄悄话 回复 '古树羽音' 的评论 : 羽音好久没见,我知道你也反战。
井观天 回复 悄悄话 回复 '深度思考' 的评论 : 刚写了“之二”,才看到你的评论,恰好有“之二”里面的一些观点。
深度思考 回复 悄悄话 继续给钱,是美国精英(不分左右)不承认乌战打不赢啊。如果就这么算了,美国的leadership位置就没有了,损失的不是几百亿的钱,而是整个美国的credit。队伍散了,带头大哥就当不成了。就算最后输,也不能现在认输吧?而且谁知道最后谁笑到最后呢?只要美元信用还在,先借几百亿不是什么大事。

倒是共和党一直杯葛,让人觉得比较儿戏啊。川爷的竞选口号,不是要让美国伟大吗?他说过“我当总统,让美国比以前差一些,但是差的没有拜登那么多”吗?谁也不能承认美国就此一定会比以前差一些,努力的方向是不要断崖式垮下去。这就决定了,大家只能咬着牙齿向前,不能撤退。
古树羽音 回复 悄悄话 很学习!岛民也不希望勒紧腰带纳付的税金去依附丑恶的战争。
井观天 回复 悄悄话 https://www.c-span.org/video/?535072-1/house-session
格林的演讲始于2小时31分。
井观天 回复 悄悄话 Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA

MY AMENDMENT TODAY WOULD DRIVE THE AMENDMENT -- THE BILL FOR UKRAINE TAKE EACH DOLLAR AMOUNT IN THIS ACT IS HERE BY REDUCED TO ZERO. YOU SEE THE UNITED STATES TAXPAYERS ALREADY SENT $113 BILLION TO UKRAINE. AND A LOT OF THAT MONEY IS UNACCOUNTED FOR. THIS IS A CONTINUOUS OF A SICK BUSINESS MODEL THAT THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT CONTINUES. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO FUND THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX AND THIS IS A BUSINESS MODEL THAT REQUIRES CONGRESS TO CONTINUE TO VOTE FOR MONEY, TO CONTINUE TO FUND FOREIGN WARS AND THIS IS A BUSINESS MODEL THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DO NOT SUPPORT. THEY DO NOT SUPPORT A BUSINESS MODEL ON BLOOD, MURDER AND WAR IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES WHILE THIS VERY GOVERNMENT DOES NOTHING TO SECURE OUR BORDER. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE OVER $34 TRILLION. THE DEBT IS RISING BY OVER $40 BILLION EVERY SINGLE NIGHT WHILE WE ALL SLEEP, YET NOTHING IS DONE TO SECURE OUR BORDER OR REDUCE OUR DEBT. INFLATION IS DRIVEN OUT OF CONTROL. AMERICANS ARE SUFFERING EVERY SINGLE DAY AND CAN HARDLY AFFORD GROSSLY RY BILLS OR GAS IN THEIR CAR OR HARDLY AFFORD RENT AND MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ARE OVER $3,000 WHERE THEY WERE JUST OVER $1700, THREE YEARS AGO. YOUNG ADULTS DON'T THINK THEY WILL BUY A HOME IN THEIR LIFETIME. TODAY IN CONGRESS, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT THIS BODY THINKS SHOULD BE DONE IS TO SEND ANOTHER $61 BILLION TO A WAR IN UKRAINE THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BY 70% DO NOT SUPPORT. MIND YOU THIS COMES ON THE VERY HEELS OF MONDAY BEING APRIL 15, TAX DAY, WHERE EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN HAD TO SCROUNGE UP THEIR MONEY AND SEND THEIR MONEY INTO THE I.R.S. OR FILE EXTENSIONS BECAUSE THEY WEREN'T READY AND DIDN'T HAVE THE MONEY TO PAY THEIR TAXES. BUT TODAY THIS BODY SAYS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE CAN DO. NO, IT'S NOT REDUCE SPENDING, THAT'S NOT IT, NOT TO DO ANYTHING TO DRIVE DOWN INFLATION, OH, NO, WE CAN'T DO THAT. IT'S NOT JUST TO SECURE OUR OWN BORDER THAT HAS INVADED EVERY SINGLE DAY BY PEOPLE FROM OVER 160 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. NO, DON'T SECURE THE AMERICAN BORDER. LET EVERYONE IN. WE HAVE 1.8 MILLION KNOWN GOT-AWAYS. WE DON'T KNOW WHO THESE PEOPLE ARE. YET WE HAVE MEMBERS OF THIS BODY TALKING BIG AND TOUGH OH, WE HAVE TO DEFEAT RUSSIA AND WE HAVE TO PROTECT UKRAINE. BUT YET ALL OF YOU ARE UNWILLING TO PROTECT THE AMERICAN CITIZEN THAT PAY YOUR PAYCHECK, PAY THE LIGHT BILLS IN THIS BUILDING AND PAY FOR THIS ENTIRE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, FOR WHAT? FOR NOTHING. UKRAINE IS NOT EVEN A MEMBER OF NATO. UKRAINE IS NOT A MEMBER OF NATO. BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU HEAR IN WASHINGTON, D.C., IS OH, WE HAVE TO SPEND AMERICAN HARD-EARNED TAX DOLLARS OVER TO UKRAINE AND KEEP THE MONEY GOING TO CONTINUE TO MURDER UKRAINIANS, WIPE OUT AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF UKRAINIAN MEN SO THAT THERE ARE WIDOWS, FATHERLESS ORPHANS AND NOT TO WORK IN THEIR INDUSTRY. YOU SUPPORT UKRAINE. WOW. WHAT KIND OF SUPPORT IS THAT? REPUS I HAVE. SHAME ON THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT. SHAME ON THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT. IF WE SUPPORT OUR MILITARY, SUPPORT OUR MILITARY. WE SHOULD BE FUNDING TO BUILDUP OUR WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION AND TO SEND IT OVER TO FOREIGN COUNTRIES TO KILL FOREIGN PEOPLE. IF THIS BODY CLAIMS TO BE WHAT IT IS, EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US WOULD BE NANDING PEACE IN UKRAINE BETWEEN THESE COUNTRIES, PEACE FOR THESE PEOPLE SO NO MORE OF THEM HAVE TO DIE. BUT YOU NEVER HEAR ANYBODY DEMANDING PEACE. NO. PEACE IS THE LAST THING WASHINGTON WANTS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T FIT A BUSINESS MODEL. THIS IS A BUSINESS MODEL THEY SAY CONTINUES OUR ECONOMY, PROTECTS AMERICAN JOBS. WHAT A DISGUSTING BUSINESS MODEL. WE SHOULD HAVE A BUSINESS MODEL THAT BUILDS UP OUR AMERICAN COMPANIES AND AMERICAN JOBS TO SERVE AMERICAN INTERESTS AND OUR MILITARY AND OUR GOVERNMENT SHOULD CARE ABOUT PROTECTING THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE AMERICANS THAT PAY THEIR HARD-EARNED TAX DOLLARS TO FUND ALL OF THIS. AMERICA LAST. AMERICA LAST. THAT'S ALL THIS IS. EVERY SINGLE DAY, AMERICA LAST.
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