要牢记以下两条：

1。SB有39条船，36艘属于Panamax或略高级别的，今年上半年将有一艘此类级别的新船交付使用，另有3艘是Capesize级别的船均有长期的相当高价的合同。所以，Panamax级别船运价的上涨对SB是极端的利好。

2。 $14,000/day的船运价将会支撑SB的股价在$4。唯一不确定的是这样的船运价能不能一直维持下去或走向更高。

本文纯属自娱自乐，不构成任何投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎，买卖文中所提及的股票所产生的盈利或亏损均应由投资者个人自负。Disclosure：我重仓SB和SBLK。

Dry bulk analysis: Atlantic Panamax freight market to see strong April rates

in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 15/03/2018

Atlantic Panamax freight rates are set to increase for April dates on the back of tight tonnage and increasing front-haul grain voyages from Brazil to China.

– Tight tonnage on busy basins
– Period fixing points to strong year ahead
– Brazil soybean estimates up, Chinese demand solid

Some mid-April fixtures reached an average of $16,000/day plus $600,000 ballast bonus, industry sources said, supporting the idea that the market will see a new peak in grain enquiries from China.

“The situation is particularly favourable for freight now,” one shipbroker said. “Several factors are helping the market to hold very good levels. I think we can be bullish for the whole of Q2 if not the whole year.”

This positive sentiment was shared across the market, with a series of synergies on a global scale working towards a firmer few months ahead.

TIGHT GLOBAL TONNAGE COUNT

And starting with the tonnage count, the Atlantic Panamax market was seeing increased activity, with vessels finely balanced between regions.

The concern for Pacific ballasters moving in East Coast South America seeking new business was erased by a strong Pacific market, which was keeping shipowners busy on short North Pacific round voyages paying up to $13,000/day, fueled by coal trips from Australia and Indonesia to China.

A shipbroker said that “even if the market ticks off on changed fundamentals, rates will take time to drop considerably.”

For coal trades, shipowners were attracted by Baltic rates averaging $20,000/day for ice-class vessels venturing into the icy Russian ports of Ust Luga and Saint Petersburg, leaving regular vessels to head closer to the Latvian ports and getting paid an average of $18,000/day for a Baltic round trip via UK Continent.

And because of the ice, Russian coal will be shipped to Latvian ports via rail, which could create a bottleneck in cargo deliveries, prolonging coal shipments times to end-March dates.

Tonnage was also tight for East Coast South America, which was shipping old crop stems to the Far East, which has maintained a healthy appetite for soybeans since the beginning of 2018, with regular fixtures from Brazil.

Freight rates have already soared as the new crop season approaches; the 82,000 dwt Tyana was fixed for a grains trip from the East Coast South America to the Singapore-Japan range for April 9 dates at $16,750/day plus a $675,000 ballast bonus.

These numbers seem to be only the beginning of a solid new season; the 82,000 dwt Scarlet Eagle was also fixed for a trip from East Coast South America to the Singapore-Japan range for 15-20 April laycans at $16,850/day plus a $675,000 ballast bonus.

“I haven’t seen such a market in years,” said a shipbroker. “I reckon we might see even higher numbers; the tonnage has been also absorbed by the period fixing, so we are left with little counts to play with, which is a very good thing.”

PERIOD FIXING BOOSTS SENTIMENT

To further add to the already bullish sentiment, period trades saw a new wave of interest from players, supporting the spot and paper markets as a result. “Period is extremely strong now,” said a shipbroker “Everyone is expecting the market to explode so they are trying to cover themselves.”

The 89,000 dwt Medi Tokyo was heard being fixed for a year period trip from Mizushima, Japan, redelivery worldwide for March 10-16 dates at $16,000/day by Cargill, while PLC fixed the 83,000 dwt Aby Jeannette for a four-six-month trip from Fangcheng, South China, redelivery worldwide for March 12-17 laycans at $14,850/day.

Industry sources said a “positive feedback loop” was at play, with strong spot rates encouraging period fixing and the latter further fueling positive sentiment.

BRAZILIAN SOYBEANS, CHINESE DEMAND

Chinese demand for grains is likely to be fully satisfied by the new soybeans crop in Brazil. Brazilian crop agency Conab revised its production estimate for the 2017-18 marketing year to 113 million mt, up form 110.44 million mt forecast in January.

“I think we are going to see another great year for the grains,” said a shipbroker. “The Chinese are all over those especially because the US Gulf soybeans seem to have quality issues and the volumes also seem less than last year.”

In addition to quality issues, US soybean exports have faced restrictions in the quantity of foreign material allowed in their grains shipments down to 1% as of January 1, putting pressure on US grains exports to China, the US Department of Agriculture said.

The new measure was put in place by China to reduce weed seeds contained in the harvested soybeans. This is an issue that Brazilian crops do not face, meaning Chinese buyers will prefer to ship South American grains to ensure quality standards are met.