汪翔
随便想想
Facebook将于今天正式开始，申请股票上市了。很多人将它的市值预估为接近1000亿美元，大约是它过去一年销售额的10倍。
这是一家具有时代风向标意义的公司，它的经营成功和在此之前已经一度做得不错的两家公司的败落，将给企业界一个新的值得深思的案例。后来者居上，在企业经营的历史上也不是很罕见。创新和经营的成功，是很难等价的两个概念。创新永远只是经营成功的第一步，有时候还不一定就是最关健的一步。经营本身的重要性有时候更值得人们强调。
它的投资者所获得的巨大财富，也将给未来的投资者带来不少的启迪。那位以区区几千美元的工钱，造就目前高达两亿美元市值的“大傻帽”的故事，和那位当年以区区50万美元投资，如今得以收获几十亿美元回报的投资家的故事。值得我们好好想想。
对于很多为了短期利益瞎折腾的聪明人，好好思索一下这些投资者的成功之道，倒是价值颇大。由于自己最近特别忙，没有时间进行深入细致的分析，只好借花献佛了。下面的两篇文章很值得一读。里面已经很清楚地分析和讲述了相关的内容。
对于投资者，有一点值得注意：如果这家新的“巨人”在未来所面对的竞争压力不低于谷歌所面临的，而且，拥有通过上市获得的巨额现金，也很难让自己在未来几年以接近100%的速度继续成长的话，你付出销售额10倍的价格代价来购买股票，你很可能就已经面临很大的投资风险了。公司的价值，最终还是由公司的盈利成长速度和盈利水平决定的，其它的短期狂热，只能造就短期的泡沫。
比较一下谷歌的投资价值，还有苹果公司，估计你会做出更为理智的选择。
Facebook IPO成致富机器 绘画工身家2亿美元
以下为《纽约时报》网站文章摘要：
制造大量富翁
Facebook于本周三宣布提交IPO申请，计划募集最多50亿美元资金，公司估值高达750亿美元到1000亿美元。最后，这些股票将制造大量的亿万富翁和百万富翁。
其中一些富翁众所周知，例如Facebook联合创始人兼CEO马克·扎克伯格，但也有一些新诞生的富翁并不为人所知。现年27岁的扎克伯格持有5.338亿股Facebook股票，以1000亿美元的估值，或者每股53美元的价格来计算，这些股票价值284亿美元。
扎克伯格还对公司拥有绝对的控制权。由于Facebook已经获得了来自世界上顶级商业大亨的投资，因此扎克伯格仍然能够做到这一点实属不简单。他的持股比例为28.4%，拥有投票权比例高达57%。
Facebook的首位外部投资者是彼得·蒂埃尔（Peter Thiel），这位亿万富翁曾在2004年底向Facebook投资50万美元，他持有4470万股Facebook股票，价值超过20亿美元。
U2乐队主唱博诺（Bono）参与创办的风投公司Elevation Partners在2010年斥资1.2亿美元购买了Facebook部分股票，这笔投资可以使该风投公司掩盖投资Palm和福布斯的失败。
著名投资人吉姆·布雷耶（Jim Breyer）所在的Accel Partners早在七年前就向Facebook这家创业公司投资，并持有2.014亿股股票，该风投公司可以通过这笔投资获得丰厚的回报。
Facebook首席运营官雪莉·桑德伯格（Sheryl Sandberg）持有190万股Facebook股票，持股比例约为0.1%。不过根据Facebook的招股说明书，桑德伯格后来又获得了3810万股股票，这足以使她成为为数不多的硅谷女性亿万富翁俱乐部的一员。
科技公司造富
科技公司上市带来的巨额财富一直非常惊人。网景公司1995年上市之后，制造了数十名百万富翁，包括其创始人马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen），现在已经成为硅谷著名投资人，持有360万股Facebook股票，价值将近2亿美元。谷歌在2004年启动IPO并融资16.7亿美元之后，数百人加入百万富翁俱乐部，包括公司文员、按摩师和厨师。
微软在1986年上市之时，比尔·盖茨（Bill Gates）持有微软49.2%的股份。谷歌2004年上市之时，联合创始人拉里·佩奇（Larry Page）和谢尔盖·布林（Sergey Brin）分别持有大约15%的股份。
但Facebook与他们存在两个区别。第一个区别在于，Facebook的估值极高，创所有互联网公司估值之最，而且相当于谷歌2004年IPO时公司估值的数倍。这个由扎克伯格8年前在哈佛大学宿舍里创办的社交网络公司市场有望突破750亿美元，Facebook股票已经在非上市公司股票交易市场出售，市场估值超过800亿美元。
与谷歌IPO不同的是，由于二级股票交易市场的销售和大量投资者的迫切心情，Facebook相关的大量财富已经兑现。即便Facebook只达到融资规模的下线，它仍然可以创造有史以来最丰厚的风投回报。
科技投资者、斯坦福经济政策研究院讲师阿莱克斯·高德（Alex Gould）表示：“Facebook能够为早期投资者带来天价的回报，它不仅是一个资金制造者，更是一个公司制造者。”
整个圈子的共赢
Facebook IPO带动了整个圈子的共赢。由俄罗斯亿万富翁尤里·米尔纳（Yuri Milner）领衔的投资公司DST持有Facebook大约7%的股份，DST在2009年和2011年购买了Facebook股票，对Facebook估值从100亿美元到500亿美元。
根据Facebook的招股说明书，马克·扎克伯格的父亲、一位纽约牙医获得了200万股股票；马克·扎克伯格的大学室友、同样从哈佛辍学并参与创办Facebook的达斯丁·莫斯科维茨（Dustin Moskovitz）持有1.338亿股股票。
据两位前Facebook员工透露，Facebook发展早期，该公司向大约250名员工发放了股票，这其中包括大宗股权发放。2007年，Facebook停止发放期权，转而限制股票交易。不过2007年以后加盟公司的大量员工仍然持有数百万股Facebook股票。2009年加盟的Facebook首席财务官大卫·伊伯斯曼（David A. Ebersman）持有超过700万股未兑换的股票。
也有一些不受Facebook欢迎的持股人，例如泰勒·文克莱沃斯（Tyler Winklevoss）和卡梅隆·文克莱沃斯（Cameron Winklevoss）双胞胎兄弟，他们也是哈佛大学毕业生，过去曾是扎克伯格的商业伙伴。这对孪生兄弟持有120万股Facebook股票，这是他们与Facebook和解时获得的补偿。
不为外界熟知的Facebook联合创始人爱德华多·萨维林（Eduardo Saverin）也曾对Facebook提起诉讼，他获得的和解补偿更多，约为5%的Facebook股份。之后萨维林通过二级股票交易市场出售了部分股票。在Facebook的招股书中，萨维林的名字没有被提及。
价值连城的股票
大卫·乔伊，这位墙面绘画艺术家在2005年应时任Facebook总裁西恩·帕克（Sean Parker）的邀请，为Facebook在加州帕洛艾洛（Palo Alto）的首个公司总部进行墙面装饰。作为报酬，帕克向乔伊提供了一个选择，要么收下数千美元现金，要么收下相同价值的股票。虽然当时乔伊认为Facebook的理念“感觉荒谬而且没有意义”，但还是收下了Facebook股票。
据一位前Facebook员工称，当时Facebook的很多所谓“顾问”都拿到了0.1%到0.25%的Facebook股份，尽管听起来微不足道，但如果以Facebook估值1000亿美元来计算，这些股票价值连城。据一些Facebook高管和认识乔伊的人透露，乔伊当时获得的劳动报酬，现在价值约为2亿美元。
尽管乔伊曾经生活落魄，并且被卷入法律纠纷，但即便没有Facebook的这些股份，乔伊也已经过上了富足的生活，虽然不清楚这是否因为他在二级股票交易市场出售了部分Facebook股票。
乔伊已经成为一名成功的艺术家，很多美术馆和大型博物馆都有他的作品展览。乔伊拒绝接受关于此文的，他希望保持低调。不过他发表了一部关于艺术的作品，其中就包括当年在Facebook总部墙壁上的绘图。
Facebook May Be More Expensive Than Google
By Lee Spears and Brian Womack - Feb 2, 2012
Facebook Inc. may command a valuation more than five times higher than Google (GOOG) Inc. as it seeks to raise $5 billion in the world’s largest initial public offering of an Internet company.
The social-networking company, which filed for the IPO yesterday, may be valued at as much as $100 billion in the sale, two people with knowledge of the matter said last week. At that level, the company would trade at 26.9 times 2011 sales, compared with about 5 times for search-engine operator Google, whose market value has jumped eight-fold since its IPO.
“Google was an awesome IPO,” and its success since is the reason Facebook can come out at such a high valuation, said Tim Cunningham, who helps oversee about $75 billion at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “That hope and potential is exactly why it’s potentially a $100 billion deal.”
Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg is asking investors to pay more than double the valuation of Google’s 2004 IPO even as competition from Google+ and Twitter Inc. increases. Menlo Park, California-based Facebook wrested the lead in U.S. online display ads from Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) in 2011, taking a 16.3 percent share, according to researcher EMarketer Inc.
Facebook didn’t disclose the number of shares it plans to sell in its filing yesterday, and the amount it is seeking to raise may change. The company is considering a valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion, said the people, who declined to be identified because the matter is private.
More Advertising
Based on the top end of that range, Facebook would be valued at 100 times its 2011 net income. Fast-growing companies’ price-to-earnings ratios often start high and gradually fall. Google, which at its IPO was valued at 121 times trailing 12- month earnings, now trades at about 20 times.
Sales at Facebook, which became the dominant social- networking site in 2008 by leapfrogging pioneer MySpace Inc., surged 88 percent to $3.71 billion in 2011. Net income in that period jumped 65 percent to $1 billion. Facebook’s revenue may rise to $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion this year, EMarketer estimates show.
The site, which has amassed more than 800 million users, makes money by selling ads to companies that want to reach that growing base. Industry wide, spending in the U.S. online display ad market may surge 20 percent this year, according to EMarketer.
Keep Momentum
To capture those ad dollars, Facebook will have to find ways to continue to engage users. U.S. visitors to Facebook in December spent an average of 7 hours on the service, a 32 percent increase from a year earlier, according to Reston, Virginia-based researcher ComScore. Visitors spent about 4.5 hours on Google’s sites and even less on Yahoo’s.
“The greatest challenge obviously is keeping the advertising momentum because advertising is their key source of revenue,” Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at EMarketer, said of Facebook. While almost 90 percent of 2011 sales probably came from ad revenue, Facebook also is seeking new sources, such as credits that users buy and redeem for goods and services, she said.
Zuckerberg co-founded Facebook in 2004 with his college roommates, creating a site that allowed students to interact via the Web. He later made the service accessible to everyone, intensifying competition with sites such as MySpace and Friendster, founded in the two years before.
MySpace, Friendster
Neither could fend off Facebook, which had a reputation for innovative features like News Feed, which lets people check on friends’ activities in a single place, said Nate Elliott, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc. in New York. News Corp. (NWS), which bought MySpace in 2005, sold the site last year for less than one-tenth the price it paid. Friendster reinvented itself as a social-gaming platform following its 2009 purchase by Malaysia’s MOL Global Ltd.
Facebook raised $1.5 billion from backers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Digital Sky Technologies, according to a January 2011 statement, an investment that implied a total value of $50 billion for Facebook. The company’s valuation is currently pegged at about $74 billion by SharesPost Inc., which handles trading of closely held companies.
Facebook Versus Groupon
Facebook’s sales indicate the stock would be more than twice as expensive as Groupon Inc., which raised $805 million in an IPO in November 2011, including an over-allotment option. The online coupon site went public at a valuation of $12.8 billion, or about 10 times sales in the 12 months through Sept. 30. The company is trading 7.5 percent higher than its IPO price.
LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD), whose IPO price made it more costly than Salesforce.com Inc., peaked at more than double its offer price in July. The offering valued LinkedIn at $4.25 billion, or 14.5 times trailing 12-month sales.
Google, one of Facebook’s main competitors in Web advertising, raised $1.9 billion in its IPO, including an over- allotment option. Founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page wound up halving the size of the offering after accounting errors and an interview with “Playboy” magazine attracted scrutiny from regulators.
They priced the shares at $85 apiece, giving Google a market value of about $23 billion, or about 10 times sales in the 12 months through June 30, 2004. Today the Mountain View, California-based company is worth more than $180 billion, making it the most valuable Internet company.
Profit Margins
Like Google, Facebook’s stock “has the potential to stay very high,” said Anupam Palit, a senior equity analyst at the New York-based GreenCrest Capital Management LLC.
Facebook may achieve an operating margin of more than 40 percent over the next two to three years, according to Palit. While that puts the company on par with Google, it’s also more than twice as big as Yahoo’s 2012 projection and about 16 times more than Web-services provider AOL Inc. (AOL), according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Sustaining growth and its user base may help Facebook avoid the fate of AOL and Yahoo, whose fortunes have dimmed since their 1990s-era IPOs, said Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management LLC.
AOL’s Fate
“The moment you try to hold onto what you have, you end up like AOL and Yahoo,” said Veru, whose Fort Lee, New Jersey- based firm manages $3.4 billion. “The history of the Internet industry is littered with franchise-dominant players that are footnotes.”
Yahoo, once the biggest search engine in the U.S., went public in 1996 at a valuation of more than 200 times annualized 12-month sales, based on the nine-month figure disclosed by Yahoo in its prospectus then. Following the ouster of CEO Carol Bartz in September, the company trades at about 4 times trailing 12-month sales and is exploring options as revenue sinks.
AOL hasn’t fared any better. More than a decade ago the company, once the top U.S. Internet service, attempted to leverage that status by buying Time Warner Inc. (TWX) for $124 billion in stock and debt, then the largest deal in the country’s history.
The AOL-Time Warner combination was ultimately dismantled in 2009 with a spinoff of Internet operations as subscribers fled and ad sales plunged. AOL’s market value is now about $1.8 billion, compared with as much as $165 billion before the Time Warner tie-up.
For Facebook, consistent creativity should help spur sales growth and keep users interested, said Forrester’s Elliott.
“Facebook gives people a reason to come back, more than any other social space that has gone before, more than any other social space that we see online today,” he said. “They’re constantly introducing new features and new ways for people to engage with the site.”
连接：
《脸书文化之美》（QM)
查克伯格？！
除了圈錢還是圈錢。給你1种假象，股市會沖高。你看facebook挑了好時候上市了。
毕竟，这就是时代的特色。
挺有意思的一个故事。
有些新的东西，我们还是需要自己亲自体验一下的，不然的话，就和时代离的太远。