Palm 给出的教训

Palm一度曾经是华尔街的宠儿，一度被人视为微软“劲敌”的候选公司，也曾经一度让我在短短几天时间里见证了什么叫做“暴发户”。当年我用20万美元热炒Palm的期权，在一个星期的时间里将账户的价值拉升到百万美元以上。结果，来的快，去的也快，在我还没有搞明白那么多“不义之财”从哪里来的时候，就很快“退潮”消失了。

猪终究还是猪，不可能变成狗和猫的。一个企业的失败，有着内在的本质上的问题，不是几个分析和调整就能够解决的。企业的失败，很多时候实际上就是企业文化失败的表现。企业文化的形成不可能一僦而僦，企业文化的调整，就像是冰冻三尺非一日之寒，也不可能在一个阳光明媚的下午就全部化光。企业的失败，有时候还真的有着某种必然性。今天的Palm，再一次证明了这点。作为投资者，不应该对于失败者的起死回生抱有太多的希望。那种机会成功的几率太小。

该公司股票95%由机构投资中拥有，也就是说，普通投资者对它几乎没有兴趣。

同时，该股票的卖空比例是45%！有接近一半的公司股票被“好事者”从“忠实”的投资者手中借出来给卖掉了。如此之多的人不看好公司的未来。如此之高的比例，也是少见的。一旦有人出价购买这家烂公司，这些沽空者就会不得不进场买入自己先前卖出的股票，结果就会是大幅拉升股价。好事、坏事，在这里也就是站立在刀刃上的鸡蛋了。

分析人士估计，在未来三年里，该公司都没有盈利的希望，而且，现在烧起现金的速度，比目前北方烧木材烤火的速度还要快。

公司的股价已经低于去年金融危机之时，“世纪末日”之刻。

不过，在去年9月股价在16.25美元时，还有三位公司内部人士花掉一亿多美元购买了公司六千多万股的股票。如此大量的购买，显示了公司内部对公司前景的信心。如果你也基于这种信心跟进，并且一直持有到现在的话，在6美元一股的价位，估计你可能也就是“无话可说”了。很多看似利好的指标和信号，也不是投资者可以随便相信的。

现在公司唯一的希望，看来就是有人出个价将自己收为“二奶”了。天底下有这么“好心”的汉子吗？让我们拭目以待。

下面的文章告诉我们，如果大家留心一点，许多公司的问题在股价下跌显示之前就可以感觉到。你的直觉和敏感，将会为你节省下来很多钱，甚至是给予你很多赚钱的机会。那些勇敢地卖空Palm股票的人看来是大赚了。

Palm一年期股价变化图

附录：Struggling Palm may be an acquisition target

3/2/10 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Last week, investors saw about half a billion dollars in the market value of smartphone developer Palm Inc. disappear. Poof. Gone. Bye-bye.

Investor confidence, though, had been slipping for weeks, long before the big bombshell hit on Thursday, in the form of a revenue warning for the February quarter. Some on Wall Street had begun theorizing, based on retailer checks and other observations, that Palm's (PALM) new smartphones weren't quite the runaway hits investors were hoping for.

These fears were then confirmed when the Sunnyvale, Calif.-company warned on Thursday that its bet-the-company smartphone family, designed around its webOS software, was seeing "slower-than-expected consumer adoption." Fiscal third quarter revenue is now seen with a shortfall of around $80 million to $100 million. See full story on Palm's earnings warning.

For those counting on a big Silicon Valley turnaround under Palm's new management team, a big cash infusion in late 2008, and a well-received product lineup that started with the Pre -- launched, fittingly on the anniversary of D-Day -- hopes may be dashed.

"I think there is no second chance," said Trip Chowdhry, a Global Equities Research analyst. "They had a golden opportunity...They just surrendered it."

Because of Palm's cash burn rate and its ongoing losses, investors fear it could eventually face a liquidity crunch. It is now being talked about as a potential takeover target. And the most likely acquirers could be computer makers in need of a better foothold in the faster-growing mobile space.

"When you look down the road, there is going to be a reckoning between smartphones and notebooks and netbooks," said Chris Hazelton, research director, mobile and wireless at the 451 Group. "These PC makers need to look at where computing is going and a good portion of computing is going mobile. And Palm is a very good asset."

The most-oft cited PC makers with a marginal presence in mobile computing are Dell Inc. (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ). Dell, however, might have too much on its plate, as it is trying to recoup its lost market share in the PC business and look for growth in services with its recent acquisition of Perot Systems. The company also lifted the wraps on its own smartphone earlier this year.

But H-P is another story. While its PC business saw units of notebooks and desktop PCs grow in the double-digits last quarter, its handheld business fell. It sells expensive smartphones running Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows mobile software under the old iPAQ brand it purchased in its acquisition of Compaq Computer.

The numbers are telling. Handheld sales in H-P's most recent quarter, ended January 31, fell to an abysmal $25 million, down sharply from $57 million a year ago.

Surely numbers-driven Chief Executive Mark Hurd is looking for ways for H-P to take advantage of the boom in smartphones. Buying Palm could be a way for H-P to get into the market for lower cost devices. It might have to abandon Windows, or offer two families of devices. H-P has often juggled competing product lines, diverse chip architectures and operating systems.

H-P has also shown more marketing savvy targeting products directly to women. Women are also a big installed base Palm has been trying to retain with the Pre. Its strange, laughable television ads and a mirror underneath the pull-out keyboard were some of Palm's not so successful attempts. See column on Palm ads here.

On the other hand, H-P's partnership with fashion designer Vivienne Tam and the resulting clutch netbooks were at least well-received stylistically, if not for their computing prowess (but then netbooks are not supposed to do very much).

In general, H-P has much more consumer marketing heft than Dell, and could help distinguish Palm in the fiercely competitive smartphone arena. Just a few years ago, it rebooted its PC business with redesigned systems, a huge focus on mobile, and a major campaign to make the PC personal again. These efforts helped the company trounce Dell, restore profitability, and become the world's largest PC maker.

At least two of the executives behind some of those moves have some connections to Palm. Todd Bradley, who heads up H-P's PC business, was previously the CEO of PalmOne, back when that business focused on Palm hardware. Bradley stepped down in 2005. Before that, Palm was also briefly part of 3Com Corp., (COMS), before it was spun off in an IPO in March, 2000. Last year, 3Com agreed to be acquired by H-P in a deal valued at $2.7 billion.

An H-P spokeswoman declined to comment.

Some analysts don't necessarily believe, however, that even a downtrodden Palm is a good deal. The company has a current market cap of about $1.2 billion, including the value of its preferred shares owned by private equity investor Elevation Partners.

"We do not believe there would be strategic buyers of Palm at current levels," wrote UBS analyst Maynard Um. He added, though, that if its valuation falls below $1 billion, there could be interest.

Other analysts were even less optimistic about its future. Matthew Hoffman, a Cowen & Co. analyst, wondered if Palm's webOS software is the first casualty of Google Inc.'s (GOOG) competing Android software. He wrote that Palm's revenue shortfall indicates that its "window to establish a lasting market presence with webOS may be closing."

Jim Suva of Citigroup does not see Palm as a target for H-P, Dell, Nokia Corp. (NOK), Microsoft or Motorola Inc. (MOT), noting his concern about the company's high cash burn rate. He added that he does not see profitability for Palm in his three-year model.

But if its shares get any cheaper, I don't think you can rule out some sort of deal.