股海一粟的博客
投资是一门艺术，投资是一所永远的学校。股海一粟第一次接触到股票还是在1988年，那时候上海只有老八股，没有正规的交易所。。。那一年股海一粟只有10岁。
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Today’s Transactions:
Closed CVS May 08 50 put at $13.00
Reason: The stock showed remarkable strength even though the broad market and the retail sector were doing poorly. It seems that there is strong institutional support under the stock so just close the position and move on.
Today’s Return: -4.52%
Return YTD: -20.42%
S&P 500 Return YTD: -9.20%
My positions:
PG
UTSI Jan 09 10 Call
SOHU
GOOG Mar 08 500 Call
SNE
ABX
C Jan 09 27.5 Call
Closed CVS May 08 50 put at $13.00
Reason: The stock showed remarkable strength even though the broad market and the retail sector were doing poorly. It seems that there is strong institutional support under the stock so just close the position and move on.
Today’s Return: -4.52%
Return YTD: -20.42%
S&P 500 Return YTD: -9.20%
My positions:
PG
UTSI Jan 09 10 Call
SOHU
GOOG Mar 08 500 Call
SNE
ABX
C Jan 09 27.5 Call
Mr Buffett is the Oracle in this philosophy. Sure you should be a contrarian, when everyone is fearful, you be greedy; when everyone is greedy, you be fearful. The problem is that once your timing is off ... you end up with big losses down the road ... which happens endless times to individual investors.
There is a grave misunderstanding in wall street that being contrarian is to buy low when a stock looks cheap and to sell high when stocks look expensive. The bad news to ordinary investor is that cheap stocks can go even cheaper in bear market and expensive stocks can go much higher in bull market.
I have been following your thread from almost day one since you published your Journal. It has been a great read up to the start of the Bear market in Nov 2007. Once the true bear shows its color, I see you have a problem …
Let's say a rich guy is offering $2M for you to manage, your accts are doing great during the bull market, but once a severe bear strikes, your acct swoons 35%+ while SPX500 drops 15%. How does your rich client feel?
I saw you kept buying GOOG and Citi calls and you said have experienced the 2000 market crash. Isn’t there any analogy between now and then? How many folks have being buying former high flyers on the way down … and saw they continued to plunge?
One of the criteria I suggest individual investors to stick to is to put CAPITAL PRESERVATION as number one priority. If your capital drawdown during a sever bear market is bigger than 20%, then you got a problem.
My two cents