天下无马

As 2007 ends, we learned that Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. It wraps up a sad end for the 2007 international geopolitics, because the stability of Pakistan has a profound significance to the stability of entire middle east region.

Pakistan, created by British in 1947 as the "Partition" that separates India and Pakistan and drove Indian to the India side and Muslim to the Pakistan side. Along this creation, about as many as one million people died during this Partition (Indians killed Muslim and Muslim killed Indians).

But Pakistan’s first leader, Mohamed Ali Jinnah, had a good intention at the start of that country: Pakistan was created as a refuge for the Muslim, but not an Islamic State. In other words, he wanted the Pakistan "to be a model of how Islam, merged with democratic ideals, could embrace the modern world." "Muslims would cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense… but as citizens of the state".

It is the US, during Soviet’s occupation of Afghanistan, who supported the Islamic fundamentalists in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, and who left Afghanistan in a power vacuum after Soviets’ collapse, that drove a large population into the Pakistan to embrace the idea of Islamic State. Now the tide turns, Pakistan’s increased instability undermines the peace in the entire region, from India to China, from Afghanistan to Iraq, they all have reasons to be concerned about Pakistan’s stability. Bhutto’s assassination certainly will create a further partition among parties. Pakistan’s future is really uncertain at this point.

What makes the worrisome of Pakistan’s current situation is not only the geographic location of Pakistan (its neighboring with India, Afghanistan, China and Iran). It is also because it hold some nuclear weapons that could easily fall into wrong hands. When a country is unstable, this is particularly worrisome,  no one force can ensure the safety of those nasty stuff.

We should pay close attention to the Pakistan’s political election. If a riot becomes uncontrollable, it can spread. For that reason, I hope Pakistanis can have a peaceful election and power transfer. Or UN and US intervention may be needed. When US is physically get involved into Pakistan, it may drag the country deeper into the unwelcome land. (For those push for Islamic State, they have viewed "Musharraf as a US puppet who is willing to declare war on fellow Muslims to satisfy America" – quoted per National Geographic Article)

World’s big event often is trigged by small event. I just hope Pakistan wont be one of them. In that sense, our investments, the future of the world, may well depend on the resolution of Pakistan.