The table below provides the answer for the question : given there was n continous Yang(Close> Open) candle sticks, what is the possiblity that we would see another Yang sticks the next day. +n means n Yangs, -n means n Yings. The data were summarized from SPY from 1993 to today.
# of continous Yang candles sticks | subsequential yang | subseqential ying | nobs |
-10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
-9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 5 |
-8 | 0.166666667 | 0.833333333 | 6 |
-7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 12 |
-6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 24 |
-5 | 0.596774194 | 0.387096774 | 62 |
-4 | 0.562091503 | 0.405228758 | 153 |
-3 | 0.503205128 | 0.490384615 | 312 |
-2 | 0.510769231 | 0.48 | 650 |
-1 | 0.527170078 | 0.458715596 | 1418 |
0 | 0.493506494 | 0.454545455 | 77 |
1 | 0.503166784 | 0.482054891 | 1421 |
2 | 0.485314685 | 0.503496503 | 715 |
3 | 0.510086455 | 0.478386167 | 347 |
4 | 0.525423729 | 0.463276836 | 177 |
5 | 0.516129032 | 0.462365591 | 93 |
6 | 0.541666667 | 0.458333333 | 48 |
7 | 0.461538462 | 0.5 | 26 |
8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 12 |
9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6 |
10 | 0.333333333 | 0.666666667 | 3 |
11 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
12 | 0 | 1 | 1
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