闲聊山海经
中医是中国人的宝贝
正文
- market capitalization of sp500 / size of fed's balance sheet = constant
- 12% cash, 25% stock
- switched to Europen stocks several months ago in the history of doubel line (because dollar will go down and european stocks are really cheap)
- what affect the dollar is the twin deficit (bugdet deficit at a level never seen before; trade deficit is increasing) these two correlates to a negative dollar trend
- dollar already topped out
- He like real assets, commodies and real estate more than gold
- commodity index has been very strong 75% up vs the bottom in last year
- cycle of commodity is very long, (so still cheap in long term basis)
- has 30-35% commodities
- long term bond make sense (because of potential debt deflation), he is 30% long term bonds as a hedge for the risky assets
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