这是一份稍稍迟来的荣誉，因为本周高总编实在分身乏术。不过今天仍然是周末最后一天，所以这个奖项今晚颁出应该不是太迟。
GOOG本周开盘后连续两天大的向下振荡，即在情理之中，又颇出人意外。因为就在上周末，GOOG刚刚被broker将价格调升到500。可是也几乎就在同时，一诺千金在22日却间接指出GOOG在430左右见顶（华尔街大混混更是直接帮一诺千金喊出了430是顶）。
当时帖子发出之后，立即受到大千众将铺天盖地的“袭击”：GOOG不能short！更有甚者，某大千人喊出卖锅轧铁买GOOG的豪言壮语。可是市场再一次验证一诺千金入木三分的非凡眼光以及不同凡响的过人魄力：28，29两天之内GOOG飞流直下，从430到395！凸现一诺千金其名乃是的深厚FATA功底！
因此，HIGH周刊决定将本周最佳操盘手的荣誉再次授予无可争议的大千高手－一诺千金！
Copyright ©2005 HIGH周刊 All rights reserved
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| 今日关注：Goog及如何操作
基本面分析:
Valuation
GOOG， internet search leader gets its target mostly at $450 and I acknowledge that the price target is intrinsically very high -- as is the implied $125Bish market cap which is TWX plus DIS. My EV/EBITDA analysis generates a $429 price target, while my P/E analysis generates a $436 price target.
EV/EBITDA: apply a 25X multiple to my 2007 EBITDA estimate of $5.3B ($15.98 per share) to reach a $429 target price, adjusting for $10.1B ($30.00 per share) in cash. My target multiple is largely driven off of growth assumptions, and I are assuming a 2007-2010 compound EBITDA growth of approximately 25%. GOOG's trading history is relatively limited, but its current 2005 EBITDA multiple is 33X, and I am applying to GOOG highest multiple among the Net leaders (vs. 23X for EBAY and 21X for YHOO), which is consistent with our view that GOOG has the highest sustainable growth rate among these companies (vs. 23% for EBAY and YHOO).
I am assuming multiple contraction as GOOG's bottom-line growth decelerates over time. I note that Google's P/E multiple has ranged from 93X to 56X with a mean of 74X in the past nearly one year.
Risks
High Risk rating on GOOG reflects the highly competitive landscape the
company faces and the intrinsically high valuation multiples of growth stocks, especially in the Internet sector. These risks are somewhat offset by the company's strong balance sheet ($7.6B in cash) and by the liquidity of its shares. Note that the investment risks laid out below may impede the stock from reaching the target price. Specific risks are: 1) Very significant competition from Internet-related companies like Yahoo! and Microsoft; 2) Limited track record and limited visibility; 3) Potential exposure to concerns over aggressive industry online advertising practices; and 4) Very strong Bullish sentiment.
狗狗目前交易在416元，离430仅14元之交。
技术面分析：
技术面较简单：$150跳空后到$200在跳空，后$300跳空到$350。基本上是一个60度GANN上升，属于少见的(象当年的AMZN OR QCOM) 特大牛股。强势技术：三次跳空呈强拉之势，乖离区沿1区震荡。上升趋势义无反顾。弱势技术：$300跳空后交易量明显比$200跳空低。故$300跳空为最后一跳。
由此看来，狗狗属技术上强弩之末。
大势与板块配合分析：大势很强，是否是一个真正的牛市开始，还言时过早。不过，那斯2300是可期的。姑且不论经济面如何，年底至少是强势。下周大势拉回调整概率极大。网路正如2000年一样，轰轰烈烈，但竞争也更加激烈。可望强势股如YHOO， AMZN， EBAY任各领风骚。狗狗也不例外。
近期走势(1-4周) ：狗狗将进入最后的疯狂，430指日可待。至于450有可能，500恐怕是有些天方夜谭。明日应拉回调整。下周继续向上。明年初将会疯狂下跌。
中期走势(3-6月) ：先很快回到400，然后跌到350。如果当时市场不看好，300极有可能。
长期走势(1-2年) ：300震荡，250-350是震荡区。
战略战术：波段交易是首选，不能作长期持有，也不能长期看空。
建议：没有跳空经验的不要碰。我会看到狗狗一日跳空下跌$50。明日若高开，可选日冲消卖空。平开，远离，低开，先看多，然后再卖空。明日会在420到410间大副波动。可能会收在413前后。
结论：年底看多风险40%，看空风险60%。年外看多风险80%，看空风险20%。胆大的现在可以买长期看空期权了。
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| 回复：今日关注：Goog及如何操作 | | |
| 文章来源: 华尔街大混混 于 2005-11-22 22:43:41 | |
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| 请问你的目标价是430吗？ |
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