Yahoo news has an articles from Insider Monkey about how to count each state votes towards Trump and Biden. The conclusion is that Trump has much larger chance to win than polls number suggests. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/win-presidency-001318552.html

 

I am making three points here: 

1. The articles does not count the votes correctly, which is a low-level error. 

2. The article count most of battlegound states towards Trump. 

3. Even with all counting from the article, winning Pennsyvania will give both side win, but it has been predicted by Fivethirtyeight to Biden win with 6.3 points difference. 

 

First counting the votes correct：

Hawaii has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden

Maine has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden

Texas has 38 electoral votes, instead of 36, to trump

Washington has 12 eletoral votes, instead of 8, to biden

 

From Trump: 258 – Biden:253, change to 

Overall : Trump: 260 – Biden:259  + 20 (PA no attribution) = 538, which is correct number. 

 

 

The battleground states: Fivethirtyeight 2020 predicts Trump loss, but Insider Monkey can predict either Trump win or loss. 

 

Florida: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote. Trump wins, 29 votes here. 

Georgia: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points. Trump wins, 16 votes here. (according to the different prediction direction of insidermonkey and fivethirtyeight)

Iowa: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points. Trump wins, 6 votes here. 

Michigan: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points. Trump loss, 16 votes here. 

Minnesota: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points. Trump loss, 10 votes here. 

North Carolina: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points. Trump win, 15 votes here. 

Ohio: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points, Trump win, 18 votes here. 

Pennsylvania: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points, 20 votes here. 

Wisconsin: Fivet Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points, Trump loss, 10 votes here. 

 

overall votes from battlegrounds states： 140 votes, where Insider Monkey counts Florida, Geogia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio towards Trump, which has overall 84 votes, counts Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin towards Biden, which has 36 votes. 

 

Remove all the votes from the battleground states, it becomes:

Trump: 176 – Biden:223. 

 

 

The attached is the list of states with poll number and how Inside Monkey count the votes from the original article, and with my comments with prefix of "correction". 

 

1. Alabama

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 27.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points

 

Trump: 9 - Biden:0

 

2. Alaska

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 14.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 7 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points

 

Trump: 12 - Biden:0

 

3. Arizona

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 3.5 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 2.7 points （correction: Trump loss by 3.9 points, 11 votes here)

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.9 points

 

Trump: 23 - Biden:0

 

4. Arkansas

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 26.9 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.5 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 26.6 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:0

 

5. California

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 30.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.7 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.3 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:55

 

6. Colorado

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 4.9 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.1 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:64

 

7. Connecticut

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 13.6 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 21.8 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.3 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:71

 

8. Delaware

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 11.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.2 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:74

 

9. District of Columbia

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 86.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points

 

Trump: 29 - Biden:77

 

10. Florida**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 1.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote (Even though Biden has the edge right now, I think this is temporary and Trump will close the gap in the next 3 weeks. I think Trump has a 50.1% probability of winning Florida)

 

Trump: 58 - Biden:77

 

11. Georgia

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points     (correction： this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight)

 

Trump: 74 - Biden:77

 

12. Hawaii

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 42.3 points

 

Trump: 74 - Biden:80                (correction: HI has 4 votes, instead of 3)

 

13. Idaho

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.8 points (correction: Fivethirtyeight does predict Trump Win by large points, this does not change attribution)

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 36.5 points 

 

Trump: 78 - Biden:80

 

14. Illinois

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 23.5 points

 

Trump: 78 - Biden:100

 

15. Indiana

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.3 points       (correction: Trump wins by 11.6 points, but this does not change the attribution)

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18.6 points  

 

Trump: 89 - Biden:100

 

16. Iowa

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points              (correction： this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight)

 

Trump: 95 - Biden:100

 

17. Kansas

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points

 

Trump: 101 - Biden:100

 

18. Kentucky

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.8 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.7 points

 

Trump: 109 - Biden:100

 

19. Louisiana

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.6 points

 

Trump: 117 - Biden:100

 

20. Maine

Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:

 

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points

 

Trump: 118 - Biden:103  (correction: ME should have 4 votes, intead of 3)

 

21. Maryland

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31 points

 

Trump: 118 - Biden:113

 

22. Massachusetts

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points

 

Trump: 118 – Biden:124

 

23. Michigan**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)

 

Trump: 118 – Biden:140

 

24. Minnesota**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)

 

Trump: 118 – Biden:150

 

25. Mississippi

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points

 

Trump: 124 – Biden:150

 

26. Missouri

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points

 

Trump: 134 – Biden:150

 

27. Montana

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points

 

Trump: 137 – Biden:150

 

28. Nebraska

Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by district, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:

 

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 25 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:150

 

29. Nevada

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:156

 

30. New Hampshire

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:160

 

31. New Jersey

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:174

 

32. New Mexico

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:179

 

33. New York

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points

 

Trump: 142 – Biden:208

 

34. North Carolina**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)

 

Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points

 

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).

 

Trump: 157 – Biden:208

 

35. North Dakota

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points

 

Trump: 160 – Biden:208

 

36. Ohio**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points  (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)

 

Trump: 178 – Biden:208

 

37. Oklahoma

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points

 

Trump: 185 – Biden:208

 

38. Oregon

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points

 

Trump: 185 – Biden:215

 

39. Pennsylvania**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points   

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).

 

Trump: 185 – Biden:215              （correction: No attribution here, 20 votes)

 

40. Rhode Island

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points

 

Trump: 185 – Biden:219

 

41. South Carolina

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points

 

Trump: 194 – Biden:219

 

42. South Dakota

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points

 

Trump: 197 – Biden:219

 

43. Tennessee

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points

 

Trump: 208 – Biden:219

 

44. Texas

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points   

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)

 

Trump: 244 – Biden:219      (Texas has 38 votes, instead of 36 votes)

 

45. Utah

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points

 

Trump: 250 – Biden:219

 

46. Vermont

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points

 

Trump: 250 – Biden:222

 

47. Virginia

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points

 

Trump: 250 – Biden:235

 

48. Washington

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points

 

Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points

 

Trump: 250 – Biden:243    (correction: WA has 12 votes here, instead of 8)

 

49. West Virginia

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 45.1 points

 

Trump: 255 – Biden:243

 

50. Wisconsin**

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)

 

Trump: 255 – Biden:253

 

51. Wyoming

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points

 

Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points

 

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 39.6 points

 

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 49 points

 

Trump: 258 – Biden:253