股市小书生
价值投资
卡尔•伊坎在 DealBook Conference 2015 的访谈：要是你做得来，这是一个很好的行业。从风险和收益的角度考虑，对你很有利。要是你管理对冲基金，好处就更大了。你根本不承担风险，除非你自己也投钱。但是如果你真想赚大钱，就要去冒险，资本主义就是这样。别光靠给别人管钱来赚钱。说实话，你说有哪个人真能知道哪只股票会涨、哪只会跌。这样的人，我根本没见过。
Warren Buffett — 'Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.'
Once, at a lecture, he （Benjamin Graham ）was asked if Wall Street professionals were better at forecasting what would happen to market, and if not, then why, and here's what he said:
"Well, we’ve been following that same question for a generation or more, and I must say frankly that our studies indicate that you have your choice between tossing coins and taking the consensus of expert opinion and the result is just about the same in each case.
Everybody in Wall St. is so smart that their brilliance offsets each other. And that whatever they know is already reflected in the level of stock prices for the much, and consequently what happens in the future represents what they don’t know." - Benjamin Graham
2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple. - 芒格
如果说20，30，50年投资TD成为百万富翁太过遥远，是运气 ，那么在一年前认真执行老巴和芒格的投资策略成为百万富翁，也太过遥远吗？是运气吗？
TD是一只不错的蓝筹股，但是在数量众多的蓝筹股中它也只是一只略高于平均水平的股票 ，并没有太多的特别之处。如果针对TD这样一只比较常见的蓝筹股，正确使用投资大师们所推荐的基于价值投资常试的投资策略就可以在一个合理的投资周期内五到十年（也有可能是在极短的投资周期内，比如一年或一个月）实现自己财务自由的目标，那么一个普通投资者认真学习价值投资理论的实际意义就非常大了。
我在以前的帖子中，也多次讨论过美国的著名长期蓝筹股 UTX， PH，我曾经多次转贴过由大千的一位网友写的关于ＰＨ的投资分析。在２０１６年ＴＤ出现投资大机会的同时，ＵＴＸ， PH也同样出现了同等级别的投资机会。用在TD上的投资逻辑，也可以同样使用在UTX， PH上，可以取得相同甚至更好的投资回报。
大千网友写的关于ＰＨ的投资分析我至少转贴过３次以上。
“投资要想成功需要承认两个前提：第一，我们都是凡人，我们必将不断犯错；第二，投资的核心原理早已稳定，我们要做的不是创新，而是理解并执行。投资要想惨败可以建立在另外两个前提上：第一，我天赋异禀，我能做到别人做不到的；第二，我拥有或者发现了最新的炒股奥义，我在投资理论上已经帮人类跨出了新的一步。” - 水晶苍蝇拍
为什么在ＴＤ上成功的投资策略，也可以重复使用在ＵＴＸ， ＰＨ上？是因为小书生的运气好？
