2017-01-04 06:35:27

作为一名股市投资者，是有许多功课必须做，而且要做好的，这里包括了投资知识的学习和思考，也包括了对投资标的深入了解和思考。目前，美加股市都在相对高位，所以也没有适合我的投资机会，我有更多的时间来思考未来可能的投资标的，当然也包括了对投资知识的更深层的学习和思考。

绝大多数人对股市的理解都是偏向于投机模式，这很正常，股市投资是需要学习的，而绝大多数人是不喜欢学习的。通常许多人都会认为，参与股市，就是整天看金融新闻，目不转睛的看着股价曲线的变化，极其频繁的买卖交易。

我回顾了一下自己的养老金帐户，去年一年，除了每月一次的红利再投入交易，我没有做过一次股票的买卖交易。除了每个月增加的红利收入，投资组合的回报要高于股指，今天是又创了历史最高值，因为前几天发了POW的季度红利，今天整体股价又涨了。我预计今年除了红利再投入交易以外，我也不会有一次的股票交易买卖，但是每个月的红利收入是增加的。这里指的是养老金自管帐户。

我正在用同样的投资策略在加股市场上复制美股市场上投资者B的养老金投资的成功。

加国市场的地产基金Smart REIT

Smart是加国市场上非常成功的一个REIT，它的最大特色是它是Walmart最大的房东。SMART的主要创建者现在是亿万富豪，但是三十年前，他只是个比投坦许多地产投资者规模更小的个体建筑商，能够得到与Walmart的合作机会，是他的人生机遇，但是这样的机遇是通过极大的努力才争取到的，他曾经一年多的时间里主动联系Walmart， 但是没有一个人答理他，可是他坚持不懈，当Walmart终于决定进入加国市场的时候，他已经准备好了详细的长远发展规划。

商业的本质是竞争，一个商业的成功总是与整体社会的发展相融合的。在过去二十年，加国地产行业的成功是与加国经济，甚至于世界经济的发展紧密相关的，所以主动的理解和思考社会的现实对投资有帮助。SMART创建者在当时坚信商业模式必然发生时代性的变革，Walmart这样的新型购物商场一定有机会发展。说明一下，SAMRT不是只给Walmart当房东，它是以Walmart的客流量为基础，开发大型的新式开放式的商业商场。

在过去二十年里，SMART的投资回报是非常出色的。

可能是受惠于Walmart的客流量，SMART的出租率一向是非常高的。

这是安省旺市的一个SMART的地产，大致SAMRT所有的商业地产都与此类似。因为城市人口的增长，目前加国的大商业REIT都发现了新的发展机遇，由于这些REIT都拥有大块的城市中心交通要道的土地，再次向高空开发这些土地资源成了目标，SMART也有一些这样的发展机会。

在股市投资中，要寻找最适合自己的方式。我将自己的投资重点集中在加国市场中银行，保险，地产，通信和能源中的优质蓝筹股，是认真思考的决定。

既然，我选择的是已经确定的有长期商业竞争优势的企业，那么我就不太可能有超额的回报。

“I don’t want to buy into any business that I’m not terribly sure of. So if I’m terribly sure of it, it probably isn’t going to offer incredible returns. Why should something that is essentially a cinch to do well offer you 40% a year or something like that? So we don’t have huge returns in mind. But we do have in mind never losing anything.” -  Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida

因为我是价值投资思想的跟随者，所以 Margin of Safety  是我投资思想和策略的灵魂。即使是像FCR， SMART或者加国银行这样的优质蓝筹股，我也要用市场均价的半价来建立长期持有的仓位，因为另一半是我的安全边际。

实现这样的安全边际：

格老提供了  Mr. Market 的理论基础。

老巴提供市场实例：

2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

芒格提供了人生哲学角度的思考：

芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING

Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.

And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.

在昨天的论坛贴子中，提到了股市投资中的重仓问题，这确实是实际中的一个难点。几个月前，一位有几十年专业理财顾问工作经验的人也在这里提到，在股市投资中不敢重仓，在房产投资中他敢于投入大资金。

我们可以思考一下，为什么这些很有经验的股市投资者都觉得难以做到重仓，而所有最成功的投资大师都是使用集中重仓的投资策略？

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

巴菲特：“當天上掉金子的時候，應該用大桶去接，而不是杯子。 ”

2010年，芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING

“They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't.

It's just that simple.”

关于股市重仓，我们应该向谁学习？为什么？

答案是：It's just that simple.

就像我昨天转贴的帖子中提到，对中国这样一个世界上最优秀的股市之一，有哪个股民有资格抱怨？

在今天，美加股市站在历史最高峰的时刻，有哪个股名有资格抱怨？