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十一（勿入）

(2021-11-30 09:04:16) 下一个
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拜登的民主峰会开头第一句话就是“在美国，维持我们建国精神所倡导的崇高标准一直是场艰难的奋斗”，你可以理解成美国建国精神无比高尚，美国一直为民主不停地奋斗，美国怎么奋斗都达不到建国先驱们高标准的要求，美国的民主奋斗来奋斗去还不怎么样，还可以理解成拜登无比的自信，敢于承认自己的不足，也反映了拜登、美国对将来的信心，那种民主即将战胜专制的信心，不过，对于对民主峰会背景略【3】有了解的人来说，这场“峰会”雷声大，却显得捉襟见肘，不说别的，光说峰会的三大目标之一，反腐，美国财长姚玲跑到峰会上说，“腐败了去藏赃物最佳之地全世界非美国莫属”。
 
【2】American democracy is an ongoing struggle to live up to our highest ideals and to heal our divisions; to recommit ourselves to the founding idea of our nation captured in our Declaration of Independence, not unlike many of your documents
美国的民主保得住还是保不住都是问题
 
美国民主危矣
Between the lines: The data signals that for all the legitimate concerns about the rise of clearly autocratic countries like Russia and China, when it comes to democratic decline, the alarm is coming from inside the house.
 
大多废话，但这段：
那究竟是过程重要还是结果重要？辩证地来看其实涉及了一个根本问题，那就是我们究竟为什么需要民主？不管是民主还是其他政治体制，归根到底只有一个目标，那就是增进人民的福祉。在这一点上，从建设到抗疫，中国的成就显然很有说服力和吸引力，这也给西方的理论界带来一个新的冲击。从增进人民福祉的角度看，中国的成绩确实更为出色，当西方国家达不到中国的高度，那西方式民主究竟价值何在？这是西方的理论界应该要回答的问题。现在中国开始不断强调“全过程民主”，其实是巩固了结果后反向争取过程的话语权，但坦白说，中国式民主的过程和西方对民主过程的共识是不一样的。以往西方的学术界从没想过，一个非西方式民主的国家能发展到如此高度，这也是中国的成就所发出的时代之问，西方的理论界有义务提出回应。
 
 
拜奴也失望
 
你说（美国财长：不让美成为洗钱避风港 要揭露空壳公司 | www.wenxuecity.com）你自己有魄力，“揭露空壳公司，不让美成为洗钱避风港”，我说那才是美国腐败的现实。
 
2016
2012
2019
the billionaire Sun Hongbin quietly transferred $4.5bn worth of shares in his Chinese real estate firm to a company on a street corner in Sioux Falls, South Dakota
 
 
2021
 
不仅仅是美国，英国也是犯罪洗钱的中心，那正是英国银行业金融界的特长，一般说来，英语体系的国家以个人为中心，其法律对合约的保护甚至高于对个人的保护
 
 
民主峰会说是民主，其实是为了反中【3】，因为美国人对自己的民主并不像拜登所说的那样在乎【4】
 
美国和西方民主的首要威胁不是外在的专制，而是内在骚动，自身的反民主倾向
 
中国爱民主：
美国宾夕法尼亚大学当代中国研究中心研究员马瑞欣（Neysun Mahboubi）则认为，中国对西方抵制行为表达的愤怒或许也可以看作是好事，“他们至少是在试图拥抱民主的术语......这在我看来，至少说明了民主制度背后的理念所具有的力量，这显示出，没有人想说，我们很骄傲自己不是民主制度。”
 
尼加拉瓜重新建交的选时肯定是为了打击美台，确实是一记重拳，伤了台湾的心
"I suspect the price Honduras will be trying to extract from its Taiwanese patrons not to flip just went up significantly," said Ellis at the U.S. Army War College, pointing to Nicaragua
Nonetheless, in the short term, Nicaragua’s change probably means that the price Honduras will be trying to extract from its Taiwanese patrons not to recognize the PRC probably just went up significantly.
 
产业链
 
不是什么新的，但说明美国所期望的世贸改革没那么简单
 
美国是很多专制、集权国家的老大
 
惨，没了闯王，全世界都来欺负睡王：
 
《纽时》大嘴托马斯·弗里德曼（Thomas Friedman）曾经这么说过，以前中国太落后，老卖给美国锅碗瓢盆，又便宜又好用，我们乐坏了，值，那时即使中国是共产主义或法西斯我们都不在乎，后来中国不知咋的冒出些神妙的东西出来，像5G，我们美国一下子懵了，这还得了，原来中国这么厉害，这时中国人的精神，意识形态就要紧了，跟我们不一致那我们就只能打，没说的，因为现在中国威胁我们了。
 
 
 
西方确实从来没有人类大同的想法，绝对不容异己
美国极端反华领袖（之一）把与中国决战作为国策之一，不容忽视的力量
 
 
 
龙永图：入世时中国的立场是极其清晰的：中国将是一个社会主义市场经济，而不是“西方”的市场经济，中国没有隐瞒，但争执是在中国到底有没有履行入世的责任
“The major problem was not that China joined the WTO, but that the U.S. failed to enforce China's commitments even though in China's WTO accession agreement, we included extremely strict and unique enforcement provisions against China,” said Barshefsky.
The sole import safeguard imposed against Chinese imports before the mechanism expired in 2013 was the Obama administration’s 2009 imposition of duties on Chinese tire imports linked to the loss of 5,000 U.S. jobs.
 
Still, it would not have been in the U.S. interest to block China’s entry to WTO 20 years ago, said Hillman,
“There was no way to say ‘no’ because if the U.S. had said ‘no’ and China had not joined the WTO, it would have probably engaged in a whole series of [trade] agreements that would have had the effect of discriminating against the United States,”
 
But he cautioned against perceptions that China’s WTO entry has been a universally one-sided losing proposition for U.S. businesses that invested in China and established operations there.
“You can see that the firms who are there today were largely the firms who have been there for the last 20 years and they wouldn't be there if they were not making money,” Broadman said
 
“We're now at a point where Beijing is clearly in broad violation of its 2001 accession agreement,” Broadman said, proposing three options that China should be given: renegotiate its WTO membership terms, be shown the WTO “exit door,” or immediately execute its promised reforms.
 
Still, a fundamental problem remains that China sees nothing wrong with its behavior.
“Over the last two decades, China has fully delivered on its [WTO] accession commitments … empowering global development and prosperity,” Chinese Ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, said in a speech at the U.S.-China Business Council’s annual gala last week.
 
But the gaps in the WTO rule book, which was designed for market economies, have become all too obvious. The subsidies disciplines leave a lot of the huge range of Chinese trade-distorting government interventions uncovered. Attempts to bring more of the companies and agencies of state under them have been foiled by the unhelpful definition of a “public body” set down by the WTO’s dispute settlement system.
China has refused to give up its special and differential developing country status.
He declined to say when, or under what conditions, China would cease to consider itself a developing country altogether under WTO rules
如果有条件，要还价，倒是可行
 
But it ignores the errors of the US, in particular, in sidelining the WTO and China within it.
a relatively sympathetic analysis of China’s experiences in the WTO, to recognise Washington’s own role in bypassing and undermining the institution. The US has systematically barked up a whole forest of wrong trees ever since China joined, wasting political capital, alienating allies and creating expectations on Capitol Hill it couldn’t possibly meet.
高树超教授现任新加坡管理大学法学院教授
 
 
美媒揭露贸易战的荒谬、徒劳
 
 
 
今年是中国“入世”20周年，商务部发布的数据显示，“入世”以来，中国利用外资从2001年的468.8亿美元增加到2020年的1443.74亿美元
目前，中国是全球最大货物贸易国，也是全球最大外资流入国，对全球经济增长的年均贡献率接近30%，是拉动世界经济复苏和增长的重要引擎。
 
中国在1986年基本上是计划体制，外贸是高度垄断，关税也非常高。欧美国家基本上不同意接受中国以当时的条件来恢复关贸总协定缔约国的地位。
在1988年，我们对外贸体制进行了一次改革，采取了总公司分公司经营权脱钩，实行部分外贸企业的承包经营制，这些改革是分好几个阶段逐步达标的。
1991年，中国外贸继续进行改革，进一步下放成立一些工贸公司，就是生产企业可以直接申请出口权，当时还有一个审批阶段，海关关税从1992年开始大幅度降低，从43.2%分四个阶段降到了17%，这些改革基本上解决了很多制度性和国际多边规则要求的问题。
1994年，当时的国务院常务副总理朱镕基亲自主持实行了三大改革，即金融体制改革、财税体制改革和外贸外汇体制改革，也都推动了制度性的开放。
 
所以历时15年的的谈判可以分成两部分，一部分是以体制机制的制度性开放为主，另一部分是以市场开放为主的市场准入，两者都是比较艰难的，前一部分依靠中央国务院下决心推进一些体制机制改革，后一部分需要平衡国内各个工业部门和产业的开放度，比如欧美要求汽车行业开放，我们肯定不同意。
 
当时谈判还涉及一些金融、保险、电信的开放，这些都是我们非常敏感的行业
 
中国强调以发展中国家资本“入世”，在很多领域做一些过渡性的安排，基本上解决了这些问题。我们通过艰苦谈判做出了一些安排，该守的底线也都坚决守住了。
中国市场更加开放，关税总水平由“入世”前的15.3%，降到目前的7.5%。中国完全履行了“入世”的承诺，进口关税总水平低于所有发展中成员，接近发达成员水平。
 
才7.5%？以为更低
 
在外界看来，欧美认为中国“入世”享受到了关税补贴，好像中国搭了便车，占了便宜，这种理解是不正确的，因为中国扩大出口的同时，随着经济贸易规模的扩大，进口规模也随之在扩大
不懂
 
中国在扩大对外贸易方面，仍大有可为，进出口质量提升的潜力尤其大。在中国对外贸易迈上新台阶方面，世贸组织的保障作用是不可或缺的。往大里说，世贸组织对中国经济的持续高质量发展，可以起到一定的保驾护航作用。中国仍像当年那样需要世贸组织，而且需要的程度并不亚于当年
美欧日世贸组织改革的关键诉求是制定“21世纪的贸易规则”。它们认为，世贸组织规则的缺失让中国钻了空子，占了它们的便宜。
为此，美欧日图谋把它们与中国的矛盾乔装成中国与世界之争，把中国推到所有成员的对立面，拉拢、煽动发展中成员，孤立中国。比如，戴琪污蔑中国的发展是建立在损害美国和其他国家的利益的基础上的。此外，美欧日还企图绑架中国，迫使中国为世贸改革买单。它们将世贸组织改革成功与否同中国的立场挂钩，散布中国的让步是世贸组织改革的关键，以便让中国承担世贸组织改革不力的责任。
 
这些年来，中国加大了对有关外资法律法规的升级力度。但是，在劳工、知识产权、数据流和国有企业等领域，仍需做出重大调整，才能达到 CPTPP 的标准
那是不是意味着中国要改革、升级呢？泛太协定是中国的克星，中国敢到太岁头上动土，也真够意思
欧盟目前的平均进口税仍然高达6%。
 
市场经济
社会主义市场经济是一个伟大创造，社会主义市场经济中必然会有各种形态的资本，要发挥资本作为生产要素的积极作用，同时有效控制其消极作用。要为资本设置“红绿灯”，依法加强对资本的有效监管，防止资本野蛮生长。要支持和引导资本规范健康发展，坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度，毫不动摇巩固和发展公有制经济，毫不动摇鼓励、支持、引导非公有制经济发展。
 
 
Whether or not China ever surpasses it, the US has been bereaved of its 1990s unipolarity. It copes with the trauma by dwelling on what could have been done about it. If only China had not been waved into the World Trade Organization 20 Decembers ago. If only successive White Houses had not been so credulous in their dealings with Beijing. The recriminations go back to 1949, when, as some Republicans still fancy, the US “lost” China to communism.
西方从来就没有阻止中国重新崛起的能力（崛起并不一定要“超越美国”），美国和西方只是在做梦
Second, doing so would have somehow only stymied China, and not the west, even though American and other companies gorged on low-wage labour there ever after.
梦：
If this were just academically wrong, it need not detain us. But there are political consequences to this fantasy. One theme that Donald Trump rode to the White House was that US elites were derelict and even complicit in China’s rise. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama are still held to have sold out industrial America (but not credited for the cheap consumer goods that flowed into many of the same households from a trading China). The premise that a mighty China is some kind of aberration, and not just a regression to the historic mean, props up a lot of US populism.
西方一直处于一种“世界生活在黑暗之中，完全靠我们西方带来光明”的历史虚无主义，好像世界其他国家永远不会觉醒，要求“我们也要过好日子”。崛起，只是意识到“我们也要过好日子”，不能再靠“王侯将相”
 
Chinese Foreign Trade Minister Shi Guangsheng signs WTO accession documents in Doha in 2001.
《彭博》的宣传画够厉害
 
 
中国积极利用国际组织维护中国自己的利益
 
美国都有很多人说美国不分青红皂白动不动就制裁，中国人都麻木了，反正都是死，不如拼了（总结一下））
 
 
总能找到一只替罪羊
 
美国在东南亚拿不出对策，是因为美国根本没有能力，这不是中国的问题，也不是美国国内内斗的问题，而是美国国家现状所导致的，闯王的美国第一到睡王的美国第一，都是迫于美国的这种现状，间接承认美国资本主义操纵、垄断、控制了美国的国家机器，掠夺了美国的主要利益，美国资本跟中国国家资本主义不谋而合，是美国衰退的主要因素之一，而美国赖以解决一切问题的军工产业，同时又成了美国养蛊自噬的另一因数
 
The speech in Jakarta broke little new ground, said analysts, but they felt it might bolster US credibility in the region after the volatility of Donald Trump’s administration
 
安倍一而再再而三
 
贸易，数据
 
 

 

高树超教授现任新加坡管理大学法学院教授
 
没有中国，亚马逊狗屁不是
 
 
美国颠覆中国的声音
 
 
美国人的无情
 
 
Despite piles of studies, books, the congressional testimony of on-scene FBI Special Agent Ali Soufan and a 6,700-page Senate Intelligence Committee report that found CIA interrogation program ineffective at best and dissembling at worst, the pro-torture consensus has hardly budged
 
整个世界充满残酷、无情，谁被推上新闻，往往在于谁控制着媒体
媒体自由不自由，都是次要的，因为每个人每天就那么点时间，能关注什么，就看媒体选择，如果（西方）媒体媒体都忙着踩中国，那么中国自然就是独一无二的恶魔了
 
整个体制地腐败
残忍才是目的，主要是指美国内部的
但比较起来中国历史上的自相残杀，最近的明末暴动（李自成张献忠），太平天国，军阀混战，国共内战，大跃进文革，美国是不是没什么？
这是一个感官上的二律背反，主要的矛盾是时代的发展和美国，美国人的本质背道而驰，同时更与美国的宣传背道而驰
 
第一：
 
第二：
 
 
 
大外宣，话语权
捉贼捉赃，捉奸捉双
 
美升中降？
 
党的十八大以来，习近平总书记反复强调，“实现中华民族伟大复兴，坚持和发展中国特色社会主义，关键在党，关键在人，归根到底在培养造就一代又一代可靠接班人”。
 
美国的金灿荣：
 
 
（参见下面乌克兰那部分）
（经典）
The Taiwan Temptation - Foreign Affiars
Why Beijing Might Resort to Force
By Oriana Skylar Mastro
“I believe that the ultimate joining of Taiwan and China, the ultimate creation of one China, is the objective of Chinese policy,” Kissinger told Zakaria, “as it has been since the creation of the current regime and that it probably would be in any Chinese government since Taiwan has been considered a historic part of China that was taken away by Japan, by force. That was exactly the situation Nixon and I faced when we first began contact with China.“
 
中国的野心
坎布尔
美国正在寻机与中国开战
 
 
美国为什么急着要在东盟推销“数字条约”？
看了看评论，顶的踩的都没人知道自己在说什么，也不怪，党媒在糊弄
“非常强而有力”的亚洲经济协议，聚焦供应链协调、出口管制及人工智能（AI）标准等三大领域
focusing on areas including coordination on supply chains, export controls and standards for artificial intelligence
The framework will be “flexible,” with some countries perhaps not signing up to all of the elements, Raimondo said. She said the aim is to engage not just developed nations such as Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand but also emerging economies such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.
 
原中央党史研究室副主任章百家在三亚论坛上告诫不可对赌美国衰落、警惕向内转向的趋势，强调美国具有强大自我调节能力。
谈及外交时，章百家说中国需要恢复务实外交，“跟做股市一样，新一代外交官是牛市中成长的，遇到熊市怎么做？老一代是从熊市中一点一点做出来的。”
 
收入、财富，10%，1%，0.1%
托马斯·皮凯蒂（Thomas Piketty）
Chart showing the share of global wealth
 
 
没跟上时代的，大概不知道什么是元宇宙（Metaverse），那是不久的将来人类将放弃.不久前，有匿名者花费了65万（美元）“购买”了一艘在元宇宙里的豪华游艇，如果全世界都超度，进入元宇宙，出租一次10美元，7万个人租一次就回本了
 
 
 
 
Total balance sheets and net worth vary widely by country.
 
Real estate accounts for two-thirds of real assets.
 
合法逃避
 
 
 
《纽约客》The Cost of Sentimentalizing War
Has the American myth of the Good War helped ensnare us in bad ones?
 
 
拜登真的停止使用无人机暗杀了？
 
Chart showing that In 2016 - 15 years after 9/11 - the attacks continued to be seen by the US public as a top historic event. Per cent of US adults when asked, named these events in their lifetime as having the greatest impact onthe country. September 11th, Obama election, The tech revolution, JFK assassination and the Vietnam war.
 
附在其中的怪图：
Chart showing that rich countries have given out far more boosters in four months than poor countries have given total doses all year — both in absolute and percentage terms — exacerbating stark inequalities in vaccine coverage across the globe
这个：
 
 
 
澳大利亚智库，如大家所嘀咕那般，已被军工收买了
 
补充
The public has been moving in a more hawkish direction for some time. Surveys show that the diet of propaganda has had an effect in making the public at least nominally more supportive of sending U.S. forces to fight for countries where the U.S. has no vital interests, including Taiwan and Ukraine. The numbers vary depending on the survey, but support for intervention in all cases is trending upwards. That is not a response to “new facts,” but something is changing because political leaders and media outlets are driving public opinion in this direction. Public opinion doesn’t just “turn hawkish.” It is shaped to become so.
 
 
老大哥
 
 
政治
民主党的危机
 
人物
 
历史
宋朝的家族系统如何加强了国家建造
 
经济
 
 
魏玲灵的线路神通
A senior gov adviser told me the government will “make a big effort to stabilize growth” next year
The PBOC doesn’t want to ease because whenever they do, the money just flows into property. But they may have little choice. Credit expansion will have to pick up especially if the GDP growth rate for 2022 is set above 5% — with private investment down
 
全世界人民团结起来，躺平
 
 
欧洲
 
产业链
技术封锁
哈佛说中国关键技术上能在2030年左右超过美国
原来出自这个
全文
 
 
 
央行2021年9月出版的“2020年中国金融稳定报告”
国际金融危机以来，我国宏观杠杆率整体呈上升趋势，由2008年末的143.1%上升至2016年末的248.6%，上升了近105.5个百分点。2017—2019年，宏观杠杆率总体稳定在250%左右，年均上涨2.0个百分点，低于2008年末至2016年末年均13.2个百分点的增幅，为全力支持抗击百年不遇的新冠肺炎疫情创造了政策空间。
2020年，受新冠肺炎疫情冲击影响，我国宏观杠杆率出现阶段性上升。初步测算，2020年末我国宏观杠杆率为279.4%，比上年末高23.5个百分点。（根据国际清算银行 （BIS）数据，2020年末美国（296.1%）、日 本（418.9%）杠杆率分别比上年末上升42.8和 40.6个百分点，明显高于我国同期26.6个百分 点（BIS口径）的增幅。）
 
当前省级政府在竭力控制债务规模，因为债务继续无限上扩财政每年支出的利息太多，“实际上每年财政的钱都在还利息，而且经济不发达的省份和地区，连利息也已经还不起。”
 
 
还有一点是现在的利息负担非常大，中国大概有 260万亿的债务，每年的利息负担
对企业和金融部门都是非常大的，而且部分地区的债务风险很大。在这样的环境下，如
果说需求不足怎么办？接下来主要靠什么？靠货币政策，靠货币信贷工具。这意味着我
们的市场流动性在未来相当长的时间内相对会比较友好
260*5%=13
 
 
 
德国新政府和对华政策
 
Olaf Scholz is already on a collision course with his two coalition partners: The coalition agreement writes down a departure from the previous China course, but Scholz probably wants continuity（默克尔背后做思想工作）
 
 
原因：所以，德国政府面临的挑战是巨大的。除去自身的努力不论，德国在一个全球化的背景下为了实现所期望的进步，最不需要的可能就是外部环境的干扰。
德国自己忙不过来，这不通吧？
协议一共15次明确提到中国，仅次于“欧洲”，而多于“美国”和“俄罗斯”，这并不能说明中国对德国有压倒一切的重要性
德国未来的执政党更加强化了对中国“三个角色”的定位，即中国同时是德国的伙伴、竞争者和制度性对手。
德国未来由三党联合执政，这是一个相当微妙的内政格局，即真正主导组阁、出任联邦总理的社会民主党必须要强调与其他两个相对较小的政党的“平等地位”：大可不必把这份联合执政协议里面的涉华表述等同于德国新政府未来的对华政策
她会在德国外交部长的岗位上了解到，德国的外交传统以一致性和延续性为世人所称道，这是一种超脱党争、符合国家整体利益的立场
In practice, there might be more coalition unity than that, and more continuity with Merkel. The German Greens in the Bundestag are actually quite pragmatic about relations with business: Mikko Huotari, executive director of the Merics think-tank, points out that they have a record at state level of supporting Germany’s export industry. The big industrial players such as Volkswagen are anyway pretty good at promoting their interests no matter who is in government. In any case, Olaf Scholz’s chancellery will no doubt retain a big say in trade policy.
The most interesting part is the overall context. With disillusionment setting in within the German public and businesses about dealing with China, German policy has been drifting towards a mindset sceptical of traditional trade deals that are focused purely on access to export markets.
 (“We don’t want everything different, but we want to do a lot better.”). His quote reflects an instinctive respect for consensus, given that the German electorate has placed a coalition government in power for the entire postwar period.
Bütikofer argues that an emergent China-sceptic consensus is aligning the German business, human rights and national security communities.
显然是“责任全在对方”，只说中国制裁，不说首先是欧盟制裁
the mess we’re seeing in supply chains is down to a huge shift in demand, away from services and towards consumer durables全球现象
 
 
 
恒大
土地出售大幅下降
 
 
围追堵截
 
美国军事计划是不是从来就没戏？利益集团太多
 
胖子里欧
 
Competition Without Catastrophe：How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China
 
 
奇闻趣事
 
 
 
Mr. Biden’s aides are driven by concern that a new arms race is heating up over hypersonic weapons, space arms and cyberweapons, all of which could unleash a costly and destabilizing spiral of move and countermove. The fear is that an attack that blinded space satellites or command-and-control systems could quickly escalate, in ways that were not imaginable in the nuclear competitions of the Cold War
When the Chinese launched a hypersonic missile in July, circling the globe once and then deploying a maneuverable glide vehicle that could zig and zag on an unpredictable path and deliver a weapon anywhere on earth, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared that the U.S. was “very close” to a “Sputnik moment.”
 
“Why are they building all of this capability?” he asked on CBS News. While it is not clear what Chinese strategists intend, he said, the hypersonic glide vehicle appears to be “a first-use weapon.”
 
It is possible, many arms control experts say, that the Chinese buildup is motivated by the deployment of U.S. missile defenses in the Pacific — land-based systems in California, Alaska, Guam and South Korea, and aboard ships patrolling off Japan and the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. has always insisted that these systems are designed to deter North Korea. But the Chinese government has long voiced worries that North Korea’s nuclear program provides a convenient excuse for the United States to build a system aimed at containing Chinese nuclear weapons
 
 
【游兵散将
美国的行为很难从一个角度来描述，例如美国对华战略决策主要策划者坎贝尔（）昨天刚刚在澳大利亚一个智库和大家交流，说美国带来澳大利亚的亚洲兄弟在对抗中国霸权时多么英明、坚定，但澳大利亚少数人也酸酸地意识到美国另一边毫不隐瞒自己和中国在非核心领域大搞关系
 
【不仅仅没被邀请的“有意见”，被邀请的是不是得跟没被邀请的划清界限？大家是不是都得看美国眼色行事？】
 
we're trapped in the inflexible legal-moralism of our post-Cold War mindset
 
中国疫情管控政策，西方都担心啊
 
西方比中国还担心清零：
 
 
2022.02.07
中国难以开放
 
 
补充
 
看看这个例子。
 
外来的货船要在海上等两周才能进港卸货，中国船员也得隔离三周才能上岸，上岸后再在码头隔离两周，回家后又两周，一年两个月就这样没了。这怎么能说是最小代价呢？不顾个人损失，对国家经济也是一个打击。
 

关于暂停跨省团队旅游活动的通知 部门文件 内蒙古自治区文化和旅游厅 (nmg.gov.cn)

几例交通全停了
 
 
西方对“东方”的敌视是本能的
 
because an inert government is the next best thing to no government at all
come to dominate in a new age of robber barons in America=中国政府的攻击
For the first time in our history, there was not a peaceful transfer of power following a U.S. presidential election.
 
It is hard to be optimistic about the future of such a divided America. We will be weakened. We will be diminished. Our divisions will become ever greater impediments to progress. And so will begin the precipitous decline of the United States. We will not be the shining city on the Hill anymore or the last best hope of the world. We will not even be able to stand up to the growing global threats that we face.
 
连《经济学人》都说拜登当局此举，是伪善，自己给自己打脸
 Biden has framed America’s great power competition with China and Russia as a battle between democracy and autocracy. Most of the world’s poor, and an increasing share of those living in the west, pay little attention to such abstractions. What will move people in continents such as Africa is material improvements to their lives
 
今天，美国堕胎权被取缔
 
We’ll find out by June.等什么，结局已经定了
 
 
 
 
 
 
【普京在给习近平上台湾课】
如果你需要对这个世界，对这个美国一定要称霸的世界有个什么基本认识，是这个：
翻译了，就是“给美国整个外交政策做基础的准则，是‘美国是好人，与美国作对的，是坏人’”。
 
你怎么理解呢？美国人觉得自己的出发点是“普世价值”，价值代表善良、正义、公平【1：凡是美国误杀了你，那是意外】，自然是好人，你有意见，自然是坏人。因为我们美国人是好人，拿着刀枪到你家门口，是看得起你，你居然敢有意见。
 
实际上，世界上很多人确实眼巴巴在求美国大兵登陆，如香港“民运”，
 
美国人的心态
北约一直在扩张，现在美国人却觉得俄国的警觉是无理取闹，
 Sure, Washington can sanction bad actors, reinforce internet security, harden weak points in infrastructure, and call out election interference. But will those measures deter a power intent on fomenting civil war, as Russia is doing at this very moment in the Balkans?
美国自己一直是这类挑衅行为的主力，但他们自己一点也没觉得自己的行为（如网侵）有任何问题，相反，别人的则都是违反了“规则为基础的国际秩序”，对俄罗斯不久前的网侵动用制裁，是激怒普京的因数之一
当然，此文提到的，是领土，比较严重，但其口气是一副卫道士的姿态
China has spread, unchecked, into the South China Sea and Hong Kong wtf
Danielle Pletka is a distinguished senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute可以理解
 
美国从来就不理解别人为什么在普世价值面前不舒服
美国欧洲根本就不了解普京，把普京“苏联梦”当真
凯南会怎么想呢？俄国和美国其实一样，也觉得自己是大国，大国就得有大国的气派，当美国将之视为“二等国家”的时候，俄国的自尊心就伤了，跟中国、习近平“新时代大国关系”一样，被奥巴马否认，那是美国以一种“高高在上”的姿态，一副蔑视的态度，连对方的合法性都予以否认的态度，谁听了，不仅仅是伤了，肯定是恼羞成怒
俄国自己的势力圈，在俄国极有民意，北约
Kennan recognized this from the start. In 1998, when the US Senate ratified NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, he predicted that Russia would “gradually react quite adversely,” and the West would claim that is just “how the Russians are.”
the West has consistently dismissed the Kremlin’s security concerns relating to ex-Soviet countries and portrayed Russian resistance to NATO’s eastward expansion as paranoid revanchism
Volodymyr Zelensky, dons fatigues and praises the military, or presses for a firm commitment on the country’s NATO membership, ordinary Russians get the message that there is a security threat on the border – and it is not the Russian troops
 
蔑视、仇视，诋毁普京，把普京视为历史小丑
 
 
现状
 
按照美国的说法，俄国三面包围：
 
 
谁的过错？（事件简史）
 
 
Along with the economic ramifications mentioned on the call, Sullivan said Biden relayed that the US is prepared to bolster defense capabilities in the region
if...the United States and our European allies would respond with strong economic measures
俄方：
"In response, Vladimir Putin stressed that the responsibility should not be shifted onto the shoulders of Russia, since it is NATO that is making dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory and is building up its military potential at our borders," the Kremlin statement said. "Therefore, Russia is seriously interested in obtaining reliable, legally fixed guarantees excluding the expansion of NATO in the eastern direction and the deployment of offensive strike weapons systems in the states adjacent to Russia."
Although the Kremlin said that Mr. Biden agreed to continue discussing Mr. Putin’s demands, U.S. officials rejected Mr. Putin’s analysis of the situation and said they would never make promises about possible NATO expansions.
 
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia rebuffed President Biden’s concerns about Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine, telling his American counterpart that it was the West that was raising military tensions in the region by increasing its “military potential near our borders,” the Kremlin said.
英法反应甚至比美国还强，是个教训
 
拜登公开说“不派美军”是一种退让
乌克兰不让：
 
东欧不高兴了，美国就是大兵
看看美联社这个报道的标题“拜登支持乌克兰”，内容却是“美国告知乌克兰10年内不会考虑北约会员资格”
 
One is Biden’s administration attempting a more assertive policy towards Russia aimed at achieving tangible outcomes for Ukraine. The other is Putin’s easily predictable heavy-handed response and complete intransigence.
美国引起的
德国新政府还对北溪2号翻案，找死。但拜登向默克尔让步同时，威逼默克尔答应，一旦俄国入侵乌克兰，德国只能关闭北溪2号
拜登：get concessions from Putin on key elements of Minsk, get Germany and others on board with regards to Ukraine’s NATO membership action plan or derail NS2，还是要逼杀俄国，从明斯克协议撤出
乌克兰总统变卦，也是因为国内民族主义情绪高涨，反俄气氛严重。总统原来是打算跟俄国和谈的，社会也有这个意愿，但军方和极端分子不干。
阿塞拜疆-亚美尼亚战争，阿塞拜疆通过土耳其无人机打败阿美尼亚，美国鹰派马上开始鼓动乌克兰
2020年底，亲俄的一个党在乌克兰占了上风，本来普京可以等，但2021年2月开始在边境集结部队
乌总统泽连斯基原来是川普的傀儡，现在拜登上台，马上有了新的策略，关闭反对党的电视台，迫害反对党领袖，那是得到明斯克协议保护的，这对普京来说就是违反条约（反对党是亲俄的），这是对西方普世价值的嘲笑
乌总统泽连斯基马上向拜登申请北约会员
 
泽连斯基公开邀请北约到乌克兰练兵，实质上是示威
 
北约鹰派马上附和
It is safe to say that up until now Biden administration has been following this strategy, or something along these lines
美国是始作蛹者，在北溪2号向德国让步老大不情愿
 
 
Within a week, Russia begins deploying dozens of thousands of troops close to the Ukrainian border
俄国是被动回应美国的挑衅，而不是
这一交锋的结果是拜普峰会，美国什么也没得到，俄国象征性撤军
 
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet for the U.S.-Russia summit at Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021.
 
拜登的策略是等德国绿党当选，绿党领袖，现任外长的贝尔伯克反俄反中，正是拜登等待的盟友，可惜绿党没上去。北溪2号一直是一张牌
 
Worth reminding that US opposition to NS2 is partly driven by the interests of US gas exporters,
And how likely is it that he would invade Ukraine after NS2 is up and running?
is a mighty dangerous energy weapon, which would allow Putin to suffocate Ukrainian economy without any invasions.
Nevertheless, on Oct 26 Ukraine used a Bayraktar drone for the first time to destroy a piece of artillery on the separatist side
乌克兰总统管不住军方、情报部门，压不住反对派，民意也不牢固
At the end of October, USS Porter entered the Black Sea, followed by USS Mount Whitney. You could feel from TASS and RIA posts at that time, how alarmed the Russians were about the prospect of another freedom of navigation operation, along the lines of HMS Defender’s
美国、北约对“行驶自己的权力”理所当然，完全不考虑对方，这么狠，才是逼疯普京的原因，中国也一样
 
 
12.21
普京前几天爆发
 "It is extremely alarming that elements of the US global defense system are being deployed near Russia. The Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching the Tomahawk cruise missiles."
"If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if US and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems. This is a huge challenge for us, for our security."
 
乌克兰
 
 
 
美国少数克制派也鼓吹这个
 
芬兰也变了？
据说没有群众基础（Daniel Larison）
 
 
习近平普京交流后：
 
 
 
美、北约还是不敢真的打
不会马上开打
Russia does not want an armed conflict with Ukraine, but will continue to take steps to defend itself, Moscow’s top diplomat has said, as Kiev claims Moscow could order an offensive against its neighbor
 
 
据路透社、俄罗斯塔斯社当地时间12月21日报道，普京曾在当天的国防部会议上警告，在乌克兰冲突问题上，由于北约“步步紧逼”的扩张，俄国已经“退无可退”。如果西方继续“侵略行为”，俄方准备采取“适当的军事军事措施”来回应。
 
中俄联盟？
美国和西方一直不相信中俄之间会有联盟，因为不可能，两者潜在分歧远多于共同之处，还有历史包袱，中俄也一直不承认彼此之间是个联盟，尤其是中国还是坚持不结盟，俄国和普京非常清楚俄国在两国关系中是处于次要地位，因为数字在哪儿，没法比，但中国要求美国以大国身份对待中国，中国也就以大国身份对待俄国，这点估计普京很惬意、满足，中俄都有要求美国以同等身份对待的要求，但美国非要以单极姿态，高高在上，令人不舒服，这不仅仅是傲慢，而且影响到一个国家的合法性，美国恰恰有否认中俄政府合法性的意图，从旁观者来看，美国是主动要去制造敌人，这是不是妥当，就看你怎么想。
 
冷战结束前后，美国到老布什那一代的战略家，是绝对不会这么做的，极度狂妄才有这种冒进，但他们都进了棺材（基辛格还活着，但只是被供奉起来，没人理他），新一代有新一代的想法，世界观。
 
2014年克里米亚事件之后，俄国就被孤立，被西方排挤，一步步越来越紧，空间越来越小，俄国只能向东寻求支持，经过那么多年，不仅仅普京本人，而且一直有抵制中国的俄罗斯统治阶层和精英也慢慢接受中国了，这是一个重要的转变，虽然俄国中产并没有做出同样程度的转变，但他们至少接受了中国，这已经足以让俄国整个国家有和中国站到一起的基础，不论这是不是联盟，但彼此已经把自己和对方的利益看成息息相关，也许中俄还不到军事联盟的程度，但已经有了一种一方会成为另一方战略后方的感觉。
 
这一切，自然拜托美国、西方对两国打击围堵的功劳。
 
中俄两国近来频频举行军事演习，这是在没有实战的情况下最佳
Western officials and defense experts are growing more convinced of the closer relationship based on recent economic alliances, military exercises and joint defense development
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported that Beijing and Moscow are now more aligned than at any point in the past 60 years.
美国近来不得不承认中俄关系已经紧密到威胁美国的地步，但还是不相信军事联盟
 
watching closely but caution against reading too much into actions unlikely to flower into a full military alliance.
 U.S. steps to contain the two countries have driven them into a marriage of convenience, giving the previously contentious rivals an incentive to marshal resources and intelligence against a common adversary
美国的思维并没有变
“The conversation first was that Russia and China are not going to align,” said Mr. Kofman, the Russian military expert. “Then the conversation was, it appears there’s an alignment, but it’s not very significant. Then it evolved to, there’s an alignment, and it is significant, but it probably won’t last. And that conversation is now evolving into the next stage.”
一直拒绝承认现实
China ordered Russian-made Su-35 jet fighters, which enhanced Beijing’s ability to strike U.S. warships. The U.S. sanctioned China for these deals.
我们都忘了
 
中国的基本工业品和中高端零部件和俄罗斯的能源、粮食有互补关系
 
One idea to divide the two countries is for the U.S. to soften its approach to Russia and draw Moscow away from Beijing. But such a strategy remains embryonic, according to analysts, especially when the U.S. appears disinclined to offer the kind of political and economic incentives that would persuade Mr. Putin to loosen ties with Mr. Xi.
 
美国离不开蔑视中俄之间的“权宜关系”
 
【本文由“披靡”推荐，来自《科索沃驱逐联合国特派团1名俄籍成员，俄罗斯：挑衅》评论区，标题为小编添加】
乱七八糟
 
普京（背景）
 
俄国不同政见者，反普京（Lilia Shevtsova）
清一色数落普京，依据不提美国、西方、北约的紧逼，原因，出发点都是同一个：正义无边界，代表正义的西方不军队派到你家门口也是为了和平，为了你好，只有“坏蛋”才心虚
诋毁：普京的外交内政是一致的，彼此相互强化，相互
跟中国民运是一个想法，为了推翻中国政府，不择手段，不计较真假
 
与台湾的对比
 
吃软不吃硬
 
主战派觉得普京在诈唬：Russia is not planning to invade Ukraine，American Enterprise Institute混蛋，这帮人到处都是
因为代价太大，根本不了解“人”，台湾也一样
SWIFT
北约“团结了”？没错，乌克兰更难对付了，但如twitter说的，你是要打到最后一个乌克兰人吗？把乌克兰弄成阿富汗，但俄国难道会“允许”吗？
 
U.S. has the moral and mathematical advantage of arguing against strong states imposing their will on those unable to protect themselves.玩笑
 
大家根本不把普京当真
勿谓言之不预也
“The two texts are not written according to the principle of a menu, where you can choose one or the other, they complement each other and should be considered as a whole,” declared Deputy Foreign Minister
俄国媒体成了小粉红？are already triumphant: “The world before and the world after December 17, 2021 are completely different worlds
Either ... or they face a military-technical alternative说死了 the greater the likelihood that they will suffer a pre-emptive strike.”
俄国国内的宣传也是把自己置于死地而后生，背水一战的感觉
 
Reading the Western press, one is under the impression that nothing is happening
Russia and the United States commit themselves not to deploy nuclear weapons abroad and to withdraw those already deployed, as well as to eliminate nuclear weapons deployment infrastructure outside their territory. Article 4 states, in part, that “the Russian Federation and all participants which were, as of 27 May 1997, member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, shall not deploy their armed forces and armaments on the territory of any other European state in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.”
基本上让北约解散，表面上美国根本不可能接受的，但俄国提出来了
In short, “the Russian initiative could help the Americans to quietly leave Central and Eastern Europe,” according to the headline of
The same is true of Japan, for which acceptance of the Treaty clauses means the de-occupation and liquidation of American bases…”挑战美国全球地位，呵呵
And what is Russia offering in exchange for all the concessions demanded of the West? ... Nothing of the sort. In return, it says it is ready… to commit itself not to threaten American security.
笑死：In a word, Russia is demanding that NATO commit suicide, and that the United States be reduced to the role of a regional power.
精神病，疯子
Why this Russian ultimatum?
As always, Russian behavior is dictated by a careful analysis of the “correlation of forces”俄国是不是考虑，算上了中国？
 Huge reserves have been accumulated, including gold大家觉得俄国备战已经准备好了
另一处读到：普京这几年确实尝胆卧薪，整顿俄国财政，油价也让俄国储备大增，把经费调到军方，大为改善
 If Russia and China coordinate their actions against Ukraine and Taiwan respectively, “everything will become much easier for us. And for China too, from which we will divert attention, which will free our hands even more…”
卧槽，俄国比中国疯多了，“中俄联手把美帝踢出历史舞台的时机到了”
“This is not a proposal for discussion, but an ultimatum — a demand for unconditional surrender. The West has no choice but to lose face
疯了： “we can solve the problem of neutralizing Europe and the United States only by physically eliminating them with our nuclear potential
不过：
The trigger for the Kremlin was the misguided policy of the White House which, after the debacle in Afghanistan, multiplied the number of emissaries to Moscow this autumn, making the weakness of the United States even more obvious in Putin’s eyes: “Senior American officials have made frequent trips to Moscow. The visit of CIA Director William Burns in November was the fourth visit of a senior White House official since the Geneva meeting. It is not difficult to guess that the purpose of the CIA director’s personal visit was not at all to make demands about Ukraine, as the Western media tried to have itt, but to try to find a compromise. Faced with the collapse of international authority due to the unsuccessful withdrawal from Afghanistan, the White House was eager to find a deal with the Kremlin.”
 Burns has always advocated the refusal to expand NATO eastward.” Burns’ visit was interpreted in Moscow as an indication that the policy of appeasement
然而，这一切都是谎言：
What Moscow fears in Ukraine is not a few NATO instructors, but freedom.
普京（和习近平一样）害怕民主、自由，肯定会把专制使用到他控制的任何地方，包括俄国国外
俄国老百姓都被“洗脑”了（也许确实如此，但西方也是如此），大家信普京
Very often the best policy with Russia is that of silence and distance: do nothing, say nothing and stand your ground
这是瞎扯
The lessons of 1946-7 are still relevant today. The pioneers of the Cold War were the British, who formed a Western bloc around the Anglo-French core and persuaded isolationist Americans to stay in Europe. In the spring of 1947, the French, Italian and Belgian governments expelled Communist ministers, aware of the threat linked to Moscow’s fifth column in Europe. This clear willingness to resist Stalin finally persuaded Washington to commit itself to European security.
Françoise Thom
Historian, emeritus lecturer at the University of Paris Sorbonne
 
然而你得问难道普京和其他俄国人都是疯子，傻子，精神病，这是老鼠要在毛脖子上系上铃子来制住猫的把戏，怎么可能有用？或者难道普京身边都是一群哈巴狗，普京自己也傻到居然相信这种鬼话（有人说习近平的处境也差不多）。
 
或者说，普京这是一：把自己逼入死路，没法退，退则在历史面前成为狗屎，二：故意把开出明知对方无法兑现的价，目的是打，也就是说堂堂皇皇找个借口，还是要打，除非对方投降。可这打又有什么好处呢？没法占领乌克兰，那是一个泥潭，到了乌克兰人不怕死，多死也要杀俄罗斯人的地步，俄军的伤亡也就失控。
 
然而，普京也不是吃素的，普京明显是要离间，公开把欧盟视为二等公民，这是事实，也是指出欧盟的痛脚，故意让欧盟丢脸，而且向欧盟挑明，你们不是要独立于美国吗？知道你们假的，就是揭短，看你们有没有胆量
2022.01.10
普京就是有资格能耐只跟美国谈，把欧盟晾在一边，德法都纷纷邀请和俄国单独谈
不过表面上美国还是处处强调“美国和盟友在一起”，用以团结大家
 
面子
 
拜登把自己执政的招牌称之为“民主与专制的较量”，自己要站起来与之斗争，现在普京一个强硬，拜登就软了
US president promised to reverse his predecessor’s policies, but instead will negotiate with the Kremlin
 
For Biden, the showdown with Putin presents a particularly thorny challenge, one that pits his long-stated goal of aggressively confronting foreign autocrats — a sharp reversal, his team argues, of his predecessor’s tendency to coddle them — with the more practical aim of avoiding a war.
 
共和党攻击
两党
 
好战派
 
乌克兰不是美国的核心利益。
 
2008年北约向乌克兰许诺，运行它成为会员，但没有时间，据说此举遭到大部分成员反对，但被小布什否决
美国和北约把遏制俄罗斯当成第一目的，自然否决了俄罗斯生存空间的要求，这一当前对抗的主要原因。
“If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences — severe consequences — and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen,” Mr. Biden said.
he “increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked just across from Rostov Oblast in southern Russia,” wrote Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment中俄遇到的处境相似，台湾和乌克兰都不愿意回归，不回归就成了敌人，那怎么办？自己“制度”能“变天”来适应一个“小国”吗？
She said the intelligence community recommended against offering a membership path to Ukraine and Georgia, because much of NATO opposed it, but it was overridden by Mr. Bush.
 
美国霸权主义者永远也不会接受任何挑战，也永远不会承认美国为了维护霸权对自己造成的损害
 
鹰派：宁愿开战也也跟普京干到底
（对比台湾）普京为什么这么干？是觉得乌克兰越来越向西方靠近，控制乌克兰的机会越来越渺茫，还是美国在跟中国决战之际分不出身来，是个好时机，美国可能被迫让步，或者为了转移视线，用外敌来掩盖国内的矛盾？（普京民意下跌，选举结果不佳，反对声音加大）
1975 Helsinki agreement on security and cooperation in Europe—signed by Moscow—which said European states have the right to belong to any international alliance they choose俄国已经不是苏联了
 In the best case, Mr. Putin is forced to back down, losing face domestically and internationally作者不觉得西方有什么值得示弱的
但作者并不是要北约与俄国开战，他不担心的，是乌克兰跟俄国开战，死的人是乌俄，不是西方，一旦开战，西方可以更加严厉地“惩罚”俄国，普京得不偿失。他没觉得俄国已经一身制裁勋章了，再制裁也
The seemingly impetuous Mr. Putin has maneuvered his way into a strategically risky position, and the West ought to leverage the Kremlin’s mistake and drive a hard bargain in any diplomacy满嘴蔑视但拿不出办法来
 
美国欧洲反复说的，只是“制裁”，而不是武力还击
Europe is in the grip of an energy crisis with low reserves. And with Russia supplying some 40% of the European Union's gas imports, the Kremlin has already shown its ability to checkmate the West's harshest sanctions by limiting production and potentially triggering rolling blackouts across the continent
 
Without firing a shot, Putin has managed to send the West into a collective panic
feel the need to appease
Another land grab would add俄国并不一定要占地，占领乌克兰后果难以预料，但摧毁乌克兰武装力量则可以威慑乌，给北约真把红线画出来
作者显然是鹰派，主战
as recently as Thursday, European leaders were responding to Putin's bullying tactics and intimidation by trying to nudge him toward the bargaining table.投降？不堪忍受
whatever it takes short of direct military conflict基本上是分割开来
 
此文被理智派和反战派讥讽，但不但代表至少一部分主流，还很有市场
We have to arm Ukraine—and pretend it is an ally?—to defend Taiwan
西方鹰派：保乌克兰就像保台湾，你软，中国就知道你的底线
 
攻击拜登，逼拜登硬上弓
 
打！
打！
 
According to this piece, a Russian offensive in Ukraine would cause the "rules-based international order" to collapse into world war
 
All in all, the Kremlin should be satisfied with the impact of its expectedly menacing response to Biden’s attempt at pushing Putin’s red lines at the beginning of the year. But the issue of Medvedchuk remains.
软了
 
Applebaum is mad
The U.S. Is Naive About Russia. Ukraine Can’t Afford to Be
 
不久前说过西方媒体是国家投资集团的一部分，绝对不是什么“独立的声音”，“《华邮》社论组比《华尔街日报》那么右的笔杆子凶得多，极右，极端，不仅仅处处恨中国，而且是美国军国主义、霸权的吹鼓手”，
A brutal dictator, having staked a claim to power based on conspiracy theories and promises of imperial restoration, rebuilds his military. He begins threatening to seize his neighbors’ territory, blames democracies for the crisis and demands that, to solve it, they must rewrite the rules of international politics — and redraw the map — to suit him. The democracies agree to peace talks, hoping, as they must, to avoid war without unduly rewarding aggression
《华邮》把当今比作慕尼黑事件，强调美国西方不能有绥靖的幻想，不能退让那就是开战了，无独有偶，这也是《金融时报》的立场：
绝对不能纵容挑衅（《金融时报》没那么极端）
 
其实你想想，觉得有意思，俄国开条件，就是讹诈，不能接受，美国先行把制裁恐吓手段亮出来，就是“回应”，常理
 
 
你要是把当前的紧张局势的首要责任归咎于普京，这也是合情理的，如果还没谈判就让步，也确实没法谈，因为那就是投降了，但如果双方都不让步，那么结果就更加敌对，这会对地缘政治造成连锁性反应，第一是固定了东西联盟的对立：俄中，美欧。谈判桌上的人会做出什么样的分析和选择？
 
然而，这种对策论方面的考虑是当你在谈判桌上面对对手时所做的分析，但是正如在其他地方我们分心过，俄国和普之所以采用如此极端的手段，那是他们在谈判桌上坐下来之前已经做了一个判断，俄国再也无路可退，俄国的根本利益已经被逼得无路可走
 
俄国的动机、目标不明
How Did We Get Here?
俄国说乌克兰和其他国家不能加入北约，但普京习近平都有一个难题，就是这些国家都主动愿意加入，这你怎么办？自主权嘛，谁让你赢不得人心呢
The Threat to Ukraine
but it might be enough to take more territory close to the current enclaves in Eastern Ukraine and perhaps set more viable long-term boundaries. This would however be an enormous gamble for Putin to take. In part this would be because of the international reaction
What Can be Negotiated?
What Can the West Do?
如果美国西方不让步，普京没什么招数，只能动武，大家都乐意看到俄乌两败俱伤
 
GIDEON RACHMAN
Russia is under siege. The country’s enemies have advanced to its borders. A hostile Nato alliance now threatens to incorporate Ukraine
如果这样，那普京出师有名，摊牌叫你了（作者重复俄的申诉而已）
But the Kremlin narrative is nonsense. There is no risk that Nato will attack Russia. The reason that so many countries joined the alliance in the 1990s is because they fear Russian aggression
Stephen Walt: even bad guys has security concerns/demands
说普京只是转移视线，掩盖自己的困境
For that reason, it is not in America’s power to grant Russia the stable “sphere of influence” that Putin demands
既然如此，美国就应当紧逼而上，俄国、普京政权不稳定
 
 
是不是轮到西方了？
 
公正地评估？
how to preserve Washington’s global leadership role at a time when its model of governance, both domestically and internationally, is increasingly called into question，到底谁内政不稳？美国的咄咄逼人其实是掩盖自己的内乱，世界上越来越多的国家敢跟华盛顿叫阵，美国自己的民主牌也不好使，
self-delusion than the oft-repeated bromide that the United States’ rivals are on “the wrong side of history,”
美国只会诋毁他人，但作者还是坚持“美国的行动是正义的”，但谁杀人最多？
If the Kremlin’s artificially manufactured crisis over Ukraine is any indication, Putin now senses that the time is ripe to move from defensive stalemate to an offensive initiative, 拜登怎么想都无关，大家敢叫阵
如果美国明知不是核心利益也寸土不让，那么美国就没有什么很想利益，要么疲于奔命，要么全线放弃，
But Putin’s maximalist demands to undo
所以普京是打了一张好牌
其实，俄美在乌克兰冲突，是俄美两败俱伤，但其实美国伤害小，而且和平才对中国最有利，不是战争，跟中国不相关的战争也不好
可作者坚持“美国不能让步”，也是混淆主要次要矛盾，但这确实是个难题：价值口号喊得太响了，
However, this framing of democratic erosion in the face of authoritarian, populist leaders as a sort of balance sheet to be assessed by rational bean-counters misreads the trends that have fueled it
拜登把国会山暴动归咎于闯王一人，是颇费心机的，好像美国啥事没有，把闯王赶走就“重新伟大”了，即使拜登心里清楚，但嘴上不得不这么说，这瞒不住他人
 
北约头子一直是好战派，处处要打的架势，“呼吁俄国合作，因为你们打不赢”，“准备好了，长期武装冲突”，怎么冲突？打到乌克兰最后一个人？
“跟北约合作才是出路”，那北约到了家门口，出路在哪儿？
但美国西方的价值出发点确实很难争辩，谁让中俄这么令人讨厌？习近平的“中国故事”，他知道没人信吗？
 Stoltenberg said both conditions were unacceptable because they breached Nato’s “core principles” of offering membership to all and defending allies equally.
确实如此，但俄国兵戎相见，去你的价值，你那价值就是把导弹安到我家门口，然后说你们是“主权、自决权”，屁。我现在就是跟你说，你放，我就打，看你的“主权、自决权”。美国和欧洲大国英德法已经表示即使发生武装冲突，欧洲也不会介入，真不知北约秘书长在想什么
such as “arms control, on efforts to try to have more transparency on military activity, exercises, and also on lines of communications”.
笑话，好像“把安装的导弹给你报报数，让你知道，死前当个明白鬼
Ruling out US missile deployments in Ukraine and discussing broader rules on missile systems in Europe were two areas where，但俄国也要退让，硬碰硬，来吧
 “We have proven before that we are able to make compromises and find solutions with Russia.”前提是先威吓一把
 
中情局一直在训练乌克兰特种部队，目的就是为了抗俄反俄：
 
普京的考虑
美国、西方从不从俄国、普京的立场来考虑，现在动武是有很大的风险，一旦动了武代价也很大，但不动武以后的风险更高，代价更大，如果乌克兰配备了导弹，或者北约进驻乌克兰，那怎么办？
Moscow believes that Kyiv won't make any concessions unless they are forced to by Washington or by Russian military force. Putin is currently trying with the former (and not attempting negotiations with Kyiv) and will likely attempt the latter if it fails
俄国的行动是有坚定的决心，有实质，会跟上的，不只是吓唬
1) specific demands
2) tied to a short timeline
3) promising a "military and military-technical" response
4) with substantial military capabilities capable of an escalation including an invasion on short notice
 
“They are deliberately backing themselves into a corner where their credibility will be questioned if they don't achieve concessions or use military force”
“The spring buildup failed to achieves Russia's aims at deterring these steps, and the HMS Defender incident, Ukrainian TB2 strike in the Donbas (the footage was released publicly), and NATO bomber flights over Ukraine/Black Sea, etc. are public embarrassments for Moscow.”
 
 
西方对普京的判断
 
他的观点是通过不停地制造混乱，普京可以一举两得，既可以压住国内反对派，也可以在欧洲、北约造成分裂，从中渔利
 
主动权
 
西方不乏觉得普京的动机是为转移视线，为了调和自己在国内的选举、民意不振，事实肯定有这个成分，这是他们觉得普京大多数要挟，并不会真的出兵。
 
但这不是唯一的看法。
判断：普京会入侵乌克兰（因为谁会做好样子却不来真的？）
美国已经是动不动就制裁（联系中国），俄国已经不怕了，因为已经满身是制裁
西方连制裁都使不上（无法制裁能源、天然气，欧洲冻僵了），更不用说动武了，动就一起死
 
 
 
乌克兰自己
 
也许反俄和独立无法分开
 
苏联解体前后，戈尔巴乔夫和叶利钦被西方诱惑、误导、陷害，直接导致俄国的崩溃，这崩溃不是苏联，那时苏联已经不存在了，而是俄国本身。这种崩溃的原因是叶利钦无条件接受的西方一套制度，尤其是新自由主义为核心的经济方针，其结果，不仅仅是整个社会解体，国家的生产力被摧毁，而且俄国人连基本温饱都得不到保障，人均寿命暴跌5年，西方，尤其是美国，拒绝对俄国承担任何责任，那意思是说，跟你说说，你接受，那是你傻，不能怪我。
 
 
说明乌克兰是在玩耍美国
不过泽连斯基肯定有煽动的意思，希望搅浑水来把美国、北约拉入乌克兰这趟水
 
但乌克兰精英阶层有自己的想法，西化。普京和其他人所说的，乌克兰实际上是两个世界，亲西并不占多数，但控制国家机器和言论？
然而，许多人认为，2021 年的乌克兰比以往任何时候都更接近北约，这不仅是由于俄罗斯军事集结威胁所构成的现实
2020 年 6 月，北约理事会将乌克兰称之为“机会增加的伙伴”，自 2005 年首次开始要求加入北约以来，这被认为是北约与乌克兰关系的一次重大飞跃和转变
乌克兰总统要求北约制定明确的 2022 年加入路线图，拒绝了“50年后”加入的想法
 
俄国在给乌克兰示意，赶快老老实实表态，永远不加入北约，不值得
泽连斯基的环境：俄国威胁，美国鼓励，内部强硬派，甚至政变
 
 
一旦
美媒说最新评估发现俄国将会付出的代价太大，普京未必能承受，真的吗？
Putin’s military moves are rallying Ukrainians and unifying NATO
一厢情愿的想法
 
 
2020年我国天然气产量达到1925亿立方米
中国由于产量不足以满足需求，近两年进口量在1亿吨左右，对外依赖程度超过40%。中国将扩大自俄罗斯的天然气进口，进口量将翻一倍，达到100亿立方米，不多
（一立方天然气在1个标准大气压下，大约重量为0.72kg/立方米，1925亿立方米=1.386吨）
 
 
第二次视频
 
12.30
普京拜登第二次视频，普京竟然反客为主威胁拜登的“制裁”，厉害
Putin issued the warning during his second phone call this month with Biden, after the U.S. president reiterated how Russia would face unprecedented and punishing sanctions from Washington and its allies if Putin were to proceed with a new invasion of Ukraine
 
Russian officials see a time frame of just weeks for Biden to agree to demands that NATO has long refused, including effectively allowing Russia to veto the security decisions of Ukraine and other nations in the region. The White House has rejected any such bans on NATO membership out of hand, saying all sovereign nations should retain the right to make decisions about their own security.
这种交换与台湾和其相似
俄方：要有结果，但目前双方“都有诚意”
Putin last week made it clear he would not wait long for the written security guarantees he demands. He said he was not interested in negotiations, only results
“It is you who must give us guarantees, and you must do it immediately, right now,”
“It is the United States that has come to our home with its missiles and is already standing at our doorstep.”
 
 
 
务实派，必须承认普京、俄国有自己的合理要求
克鲁晓夫封锁柏林，是判断风险低，不会打仗（这是普京的思维吗？）
would be premature to conclude that he has already decided to invade
 
乌克兰和台湾：前者是俄国的核心利益，后者是中国的核心利益，两者都不是美国、西方的核心利益，只是一个前沿基地，美国现在将之推到前沿，主动（分别）向俄中挑战，是狂妄过度、自信心膨胀，是在美国衰退后为了挽回其地位以进为退，为的是止住败势？还是
 
【有用吗？】
升级前任何一个决策者都必须问，这一决定的后果如何？能不能达到自己想要的结果。对于普京来说，最危险的，一是美国西方的反击，二是彻底使得乌克兰永久成为自己的死敌。
 
美国要谈什么？
 
这里提到西方可能会被迫接受克里米亚议程现实，这是普京背后的动机吗？
 
呼吁放弃乌克兰，西方的面子，“不能放弃原则”，只是面子。下面是个有趣的反过来，
美国欧洲北约（西方）不会接纳乌克兰，俄国也知道，普京你丫急什么，是不是有鬼？
 
你说“原则”，好，咱也来玩儿
美国自己实质上就是这么做的，怎么能逃得过媒体？因为媒体都是党媒
反帝的不留情：
 
 
俄国肯定否认（也许真的没有，通过国际能源组织之口，是试探），就像中国对立陶宛的手段一样
 
NATO offers arms talks with Russia to avert 'real risk' of conflict | Reuters
 
after a top Russian diplomat delivered a series of seemingly contradictory messages
所有人，包括俄罗斯人都觉得不知道普京最终要求是什么，这确实不容易，因为很多美国欧洲没法接受，不论是不是合理都没法接受，毕竟美国欧洲人也得有面子，普京简直是“得理不饶人”，
西方更觉得不可思议，俄国内外交困，实力远远不及西方，怎么敢开大口？西方这种把俄国要求世卫诈唬的态度也危险，因为有一种不把对方当真的认识，俄国公开说“30年来第一次美国愿意坐下来跟俄国一对一对等谈判”，加强了美国把俄国当成发脾气的认识，But he added that it was “absolutely mandatory” that the United States guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO.
说得这么清楚、直接，美国还是听不见
“We need long-term, legally binding guarantees” that would roll back the NATO presence in Eastern Europe, Mr. Putin said in December.
As best analysts can tell, it is the demand that NATO offer some kind of formal assurances not to expand eastward and to cease military cooperation with Ukraine that is now most important for Mr. Putin.
 
 
【新】
 
 
没用：
 
普京未必需要入侵，把乌克兰炸毁也是一种考虑
 
真要打的时候，任何“理性”，“价值”分析都是狗屁
 
 
 
【后记】
政府无能，只依赖原材料开采，西方控制
与俄国紧密的关系，俄军工产业很依赖，俄国肯定干预
Russia perceives this to be an act of "hybrid war." Right or wrong, that perception is fueling a desire for revenge.颜色革命，西方直接在俄国后院捣乱
In the year before the attempted revolution, the U.S. National Endowment for democracy spent more than $1M in the country.
The money went to PR campaigns against the government and training anti-government protesters.
NED=CIA
Instead, it will only strengthen perceptions of the West as an existential threat.
Activists from prior color revolutions are already publicly taking credit for what is happening in Kazakhstan.
This comment was infuriating to Russia. The Foreign Ministry responded:
"If Anthony Blinken loves history lessons so much, then he should take the following into account: when Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive and not be robbed or raped."
 

 

 
这个：

 

 
 
 
美国武装干涉乌克兰反而是给中国的一个警告，美国不会把对方的利益放在心上
美国“主权”“自决”，都是一些大口号，这是一种普世价值的争辩，不是不行，但主次不分，任何地区、事件都成了核心利益，结果乌克兰明明不是核心利益也成了核心利益。当然欧洲是美国的核心利益，但再说一次，乌克兰不是，但美国在抱大腿后就主动升级（卖武器、训练、声援），可见美国政府内有恨普京的，结果不顾两面树敌，坚持以“世界第一强国”的身份同时与中俄开战。把普京逼急了，普京太狠，一下子不让美国有个台阶下，除非丢尽脸，那美国怎能接受？
 
此文来自美国国内少数，但吵闹得很凶的克制派，他们的论点是如果美国什么都有美国绝对控制，那么中国肯定心领意会美国就不会放过台湾（当然这很怪，因为阿三都知道美国不会允许台湾回归，和平武统都不会允许）。
 
然而，美国的主流鹰派、政客是说不捍卫乌克兰，那么中国就会觉得美国一推再推，没有原则，也就没有信誉，中国肯定会得寸进尺，作者说主次不分才是危害
 
俄罗斯国内很多鹰派也的蠢蠢欲动，鼓动中国同时动手，觉得俄中联手则天下可得矣，这有点疯了。
 “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” William J. Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia and current CIA director,
美国怎么才能从高调不丢脸地下来，承认国与国之间的实际安全关系，就是两个大国是可能威胁对方的，与狗屁价值无关，北约说“我们是个自卫性的组织”，你当大家是傻子，南斯拉夫、伊拉克（没受联合国授权）、利比亚
Blinken affirmed in June that the United States continues to “support Ukraine’s membership in NATO.”
这种带有侵略性的态度，俄国怎么不反击？
论点：台海和平是美国“表面上”尊重中国的“一中红线”，如果美国不尊重俄国在乌克兰的红线，那么中国就不再信了（中国已经不信了），那样台湾更危险
Other NATO allies long opposed to Ukrainian membership, including Germany and France, could amplify the pledge.
要美国公开声明“乌克兰不入北约，不在乌克兰驻军、部署导弹”，这样反而更安全，只是美国的面子咋办？
 help to avoid the outcome truly unacceptable for U.S. interests — a war with Russia这才是美国的核心利益，所有人都忘了，这是为什么普京有恃无恐
美国的办法是像苏军侵略阿富汗，只是提供武器，让乌克兰人去死，
 it would also see Washington pushing to revise existing geopolitical arrangements without regard for the vital interests of other powers. China
这说明美国的外交政策还是被军事化，还是同一群人在操纵，还是美国霸权，还是与美国人民的愿望相违背
 
不同政见
 
 
“The revisionist powers”，一句话，就给敌人定性，说成“坏人”
Instead, Biden has threatened massive economic sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, in the event of a Russian attack.真是吃硬不吃软
 
美国才是最不讲信用的国家
 
美国缺乏自知之明
这未必是美国政府参与制定政策和谈判团体的想法，但这种想法在美国很普遍，智库、媒体、学术界的舆论对政府是有压力的
 
难以理喻
 
有人不担心的
KATHARINE QUINN-JUDGE is a Consulting Senior Analyst for Ukraine at the International Crisis Group
 
过时的认识
 
谈判好像很好嘛？？？
 
没错
 
【结尾】
 
 
翻炒
 
 
星球大战和中华帝国
《星球大战》背景参见【1】。本文选译自【2】。
 
《星球大战》正邪泾渭分明，虽然不是邪不犯正，但大家心目中正义、邪恶，谁是英雄，谁是恶魔一目了然，谁不为莱娅公主、卢克天行者折服，反而会去被达斯维达和帕尔帕庭皇帝吸引？
 
不过仔细用脑子想想，帝国才是星球真正的出路。
 
【资料】
“杜库伯爵是一名拥有崇高理想又经常离经叛道的绝地，他离开共和国是因为不满日益腐朽的制度和绝地评议会对于和平行者这个职位的执行力逐渐丧失”
 
 
【中国行动】
 
 
 
【中国全面向房市投降】
高瑞东：从六国经验，看中国消费何时崛起_新浪财经（与西方对比完全是徒劳，国情、经济结构完全不一样）
“经济下行，风险频发，失业增大，在当前已经是不争的事实”，失业？“为何不大大方方的采取放松政策”够直接的
“最终的结果很可能不是治理好风险，而是造成信用生态不可逆的伤害。因为资产负债表不是现金流量表，一旦出现危机，短期内无法完全修复”
 
原来要来真的：
Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Group, an Australian investment bank, estimates the total value of China’s urban housing to be around the equivalent of $55 trillion. A national property-tax rate of 1% would thus bring in the equivalent of about $550 billion in annual government revenue—only 40% of revenues from land sales.
结果
 
 
 
 
压力：
 
 
 
鱿鱼游戏
 
从造假到烂剧
 
补充
 
真的轻？
 
 
《新》
 
【恨】
 
从所有结果来看，拜登的民主峰会以失望、失败告终，不仅仅有一出美国政府出面拉黑台湾代表的插曲【1】【2】，而且带来的漫无目的、小矛盾四出的乱象给人的印象就是一个集市，大家闹一闹，民主峰会不是为了民主，而是为了拉拢大家一起反华的目的显得很突出【3】，结果美国自身的困境反而成了大家的关注。本来中国可以在一旁看笑话，可是因为世界的话语平台并不在中国手里，中国做出了非常激烈的反应，发表了一系列自辩和攻击，紧张到美国都在看笑话【4】。中国坚持自己是真正的民主，美国和西方的反而是假民主，这是很难说服世界的，光看看彭帅就行了，你这么封杀一个自己的公民，谁信你代表了广泛的民意的呢？这种
 
不过不论中国多尴尬，有多少问题，美国本身的问题却不能因此而消失，就像不论美国有多少问题，中国自己的问题也不能因此而消失一样。美中都那么紧张，是因为大家都在争取世界的领导地位，这一场较量，是各自在自我吹嘘的同时对对方的攻击。
 
这正是尼尔•弗格森（Niall Ferguson）
 
这个：美国的体制，跟中国无关
 
【资料】
【2】美国官方有各种解释，事实的真相很难说清。
 
当反华成了喜剧的时候，反华就成功了，
 
 
 
 
 
 
President Xi Jinping, who took power in 2012, introduced a series of aggressive initiatives aimed at expanding China’s political and economic clout on a global scale. He launched the Belt and Road Initiative to construct infrastructure around the world, financed by Chinese banks and built by Chinese companies. A new industrial program known as “Made in China 2025” marshaled heavy state aid to accelerate the development of homegrown technology and national corporate champions in sectors from electric cars to robotics.
 
 
 
这位美国人从1990年以来就一直定居亚洲，他并非从外部观察中国，而是以中国人的眼光看世界。Schuman表示他撰写新书的动机在于很多西方人倾向于将中国加入西方世界历史之中
中国人不在乎，不知道他这么反华
遵循舒曼的答案非常简单，中国想要它一直拥有的那个超级大国地位。他写道：“中国几乎在整个历史上都是一个超级大国，它希望再次成为一个超级大国。”
 
 
[意识形态战]
习近平的回应：去你的
杨洁篪：美国没有资格居高临下同中国说话
 
美国的分裂和中国体制地优越性
 
 
 
美国、西方的反中运动最终不是制度，意识形态的，而是种族、文明，这点就难以避免把这场冲突带到人民与人民之间的冲突，这点从双方各自的民意即可看出，这也给华裔带来新的危机，不论你多么“忠”，法律、公民社会多么“强”，受迫害的机会肯定是远大于零。
 
合作双赢，不合作，后果可能是战争
可是：
 
Whether or not China ever surpasses it, the US has been bereaved of its 1990s unipolarity. It copes with the trauma by dwelling on what could have been done about it. If only China had not been waved into the World Trade Organization 20 Decembers ago. If only successive White Houses had not been so credulous in their dealings with Beijing. The recriminations go back to 1949, when, as some Republicans still fancy, the US “lost” China to communism.
西方从来就没有阻止中国重新崛起的能力（崛起并不一定要“超越美国”），美国和西方只是在做梦
Second, doing so would have somehow only stymied China, and not the west, even though American and other companies gorged on low-wage labour there ever after.
梦：
If this were just academically wrong, it need not detain us. But there are political consequences to this fantasy. One theme that Donald Trump rode to the White House was that US elites were derelict and even complicit in China’s rise. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama are still held to have sold out industrial America (but not credited for the cheap consumer goods that flowed into many of the same households from a trading China). The premise that a mighty China is some kind of aberration, and not just a regression to the historic mean, props up a lot of US populism.
西方一直处于一种“世界生活在黑暗之中，完全靠我们西方带来光明”的历史虚无主义，好像世界其他国家永远不会觉醒，要求“我们也要过好日子”。崛起，只是意识到“我们也要过好日子”，不能再靠“王侯将相”
 
 
Beijing’s charm offensive to preach equality and fairer growth faces scepticism
but
there are nonetheless important lessons that America should take from China’s efforts to do so — in particular, the focus on quality over quantity in terms of growth.
 
西弗吉尼亚参议员乔•曼钦昨天否决了拜登的“逼逼逼”宏图，说要把钱留给跟中俄打仗用，这正是尼尔•弗格森（Niall Ferguson）所意识不到，也是他刻意否认存在的美国致命之伤
 
 
 
在我看来，贯穿西方近代崛起的三个核心概念，自由、民主和资本主义，相互之间是矛盾的，不是说完全、处处冲突，而是本质上无法兼容的，如自由民主彼此相克，自由与资本主义兼容性较强，因为它们的基础都保护强者的利益，它们体现的公平是
The evangelists of free exchange insisted that unregulated capitalism and liberal democracy were symbiotic. A half century later, it is getting harder to find people who still think that is true.
But his indictment misses the ways in which the expansion of the market economy has often produced precisely the kinds of changes he seeks. For all the skepticism of the market on the left, it remains an important tool.
 
资本主义没出问题，而是越来越厉害，关键的问题，是西方全球化的动机，原本不是为了拯救他人与水深火热之中，而是为了获得更大的利益，结果适得其反，反而是亚洲若干国家获利，西方中产是受害者之一
If capitalism has this force that commodifies politics (thought Schumpeter had that idea), it's a corrupting force. It has 2b regulated, but it always resists any control. In this sense capitalism is doomed in internal contradiction (self destruction) & will be in constant crisis. Globalization brings
 
 
 
美国总是说，美国犯下了很多罪孽，但那不是我们美国人，（This is not who we are），所以闯王上台把全世界砸了个底朝天，但那不代表我们美国，现在睡王登基，一切就好了
“（美国）党媒......把美国的责任推给国内个别捣乱者，如民主党自己的参议员【27】，好像他不是美国人，而是中共奸细似的”

Sherrilyn Ifill
Manchin is Manchin. But what kind of healthy democracy is structured in a way that can allow one man elected by 290,000 voters in one of the least populous states to thwart the agenda of his party and the President who was elected with 81 million votes. We need structural change.
 
美国现在连政策的连续性都不能保持，世界为何也信任美国？
举例
气候政策又是一个空头许诺
 
A growing number of U.S. observers conclude that competition with China could not only impart renewed clarity to a U.S. foreign policy that, they contend, has been adrift since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but also mitigate America’s political infighting. Rigorously interrogating the latter supposition, Myrick finds “little evidence that foreign threats systematically reduce domestic polarization in the American context.”
 
 
【一个结尾，是另一个的开端】
普京为什么急了？
 
Russia Seeks to Stop NATO’s Expansion, Not to Annex More Territory
 
普京想什么？
普京一直对苏联在冷战中败北，丧失对东欧的控制权耿耿于怀，不仅仅是东欧，冷战后形成的世界秩序是一个极不公平的秩序，俄国失去了其影响世界事态的能力和权力，乌克兰对峙是一个推翻这一秩序的机会，一个重新让世界承认、接受俄国的大国地位的机会，用习近平的话，“新型大国关系”。但美国既没有接受习近平的新型大国关系，更加把俄国当成二流小国（俄国经济不到美国的十分之一）。俄国在全世界与美国较量的机会很少，但把一手烂牌打响，普京比奥巴马川普拜登，也比习近平更厉害，叙利亚整个把战局扭转过来，甚至对美国干预他国内政（如操纵俄罗斯在叶利钦时代的“大选”），直接用到美国身上（如美国指控俄国在2016、2020年美国选举制造假消息，对俄国来说，只是以其人之道，还治其人之身），普京把乌克兰看成最后一道防线，是能不能反击美国、北约、西方的关键一战
泽连斯基强制性地把亲俄反对派领导人梅德韦丘克（Medvedchuk）以叛国罪赶下台，受到美国支持，而普京则认为是公开断绝与俄国的任何关系，这也是俄国升级的原因之一，泽连斯基此举除了美国政府，西方都觉得罪名是莫须有，
波罗申科
北约向乌克兰提供武器，更是过了红线
At a certain point, Russia came to fear that Ukraine, in its accumulation of NATO weapons systems, was becoming the equivalent of an unofficial member state
“But that doesn’t mean they don’t take very seriously the importance of insuring Ukraine’s neutral status, which, as they see it, means it cannot host any NATO military infrastructure,” L
“From the perspective of the West, the end of the Cold War gave way to the rise of a certain geopolitical order, with which everyone more or less agrees—except Russia, which every now and then gets upset for seemingly no reason,” Lukyanov told me. Only that’s not the view in Moscow, he explained. “The issue is not so much Ukraine but the underlying principle: if a military alliance seeks to expand, it has to consider the interests of those who are opposed.” Russia, in other words, can’t be expected to remain a passive observer of actions that it believes violate its core security concerns. “That’s the red line, and, if crossed, Russia will respond,” Lukyanov said.
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs and a respected voice in Moscow foreign-policy circles
For the first two decades of his rule, Putin saw his own geopolitical maneuvering as essentially reactive, a response to what he and the Russian policy élite viewed as long-standing Western efforts to weaken Russia. “In Putin’s reality, Russia was encircled and under threat, and was required to defend itself,” Tatiana Stanovaya, head of the analysis firm R.Politik,
忍了二十年，是可忍孰不可忍，你们还要逼？
“He made clear that Russia will no longer stand around whining and complaining about the injustices of the world,” Stanovaya said. “It is ready to act, to use force to stand up for its position. This is a principally different Putin, and a different Russia.”
赵立坚：我们强烈谴责，坚决反对
 He also said Russia will deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe if NATO does not agree to return to treaty talks over banning such weapons. “This path must be traversed quickly,” Ryabkov said. One element of the U.S. position that somewhat buoyed hopes in Moscow is Biden’s promise to Putin that he would assemble a meeting of major NATO allies to address Russia’s concerns
In a wide-ranging essay on Russia’s new, more assertive foreign policy, the analyst and columnist Vladimir Frolov wrote, “The threat of the use of force against Ukraine cannot be infinitely convincing (and effective for achieving political goals) without actually using force.” Frolov wryly quoted a line attributed to Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “Superpowers don’t bluff.”
 
历史学家沃海：乌克兰有申请加入北约的权力，美国有考虑为谁出兵的权力，我说俄国也有不被威胁的权力，现在北约都是坚持保留乌克兰权力的声音，但没人敢出来说为乌克兰卖命，没错，是卖命
 
泽连斯基去年年头在拜登就任之际直接向美国媒体问罪：“乌克兰为什么还没加入北约？”前几天美国数位参议员访问乌克兰给乌克兰助威，泽连斯基又说：“等到俄国入侵再制裁就晚了。”这是气话，制裁本来就是对入侵的回应，而不能提前使用。
 
美国国内的政客、精英、媒体支持美国以强硬政策回应的声音占压倒性多数，可极少人考虑过发生冲突的后果，这就是我前几天说的，“把乌克兰变成“俄罗斯的坟场”，如果俄军入侵，就是把乌克兰变成暴动游击战、反侵略战的大战场，不出兵，但给乌克兰提供先进武器，把乌克兰的每一寸土地都变成战场，打到乌克兰的最后一个战士。这是对西方最有利的局面，自己一兵不出，还站在‘道义’上让俄乌两国相互打个稀烂”。
 
 
几天前美国外交政策的设计师之一，拜登的大外总管苏利文接受《外交政策》采访，乌克兰自然是话题之一，这次采访很简单，每个话题都只能三言两语带过，提到乌克兰，苏利文只是强调“每个国家都有主权，都有自己做出选择的权力”。每个国家都有自己的权力，当这个国家没有能力来捍卫自己权力的时候，那会怎么办？
 
这就涉及国际关系，就不简单是“选择的权力”，苏利文说“我们有足够的准备来对付俄国的任何新的，保护自己和盟国的利益”，什么是利益，那些盟国，都不清楚，这种所谓一个国家有自己选择的能力，而这种选择不会影响到其他国家，完全是一种无知，或者是蓄意蒙混大家。
 
 
 
一个国家，或一个伸张独立的地区，确实可以高呼 “主权”，即使主权是一种权力，它也不能排除这种权力所带来的对他人的威胁，这种威胁的结果很可能以暴力最终极结局，不是说这是什么好事，只是说这是一个不可回避的结局，正义的邪恶的战争首先是一场战争，战争是由后果的。这么说吧，毒蛇猛兽与“基于规则的秩序”为敌，可他们也得活啊，你处处以普世价值——且不说这些普世价值假的成分很多——不让他们有生存的机会，那你就别怪他们“狗急跳墙”。
 
这种选择，更不能脱离地理，脱离历史
沃尔特反驳了苏利文所说“乌克兰这一决定跟历史无关”，他说今天的苦果正是美国在单极时代过度狂妄的结果，他解释今天这种结局的根源：
 
世界所有国家都为自己的安全计划，有时为了增加自己的安全不惜动武，也必须保证自己不受战争威胁。可自由主义觉得这没什么好担心的，在他们看来，世界上所有国家要么是好人（就是信奉自由主义的），否则就是坏人，好人不打好人，战争是坏人引起的，所以防止战争，好人就要抱团（联盟），推翻所有坏人（国家），传播民主、市场经济、自由贸易、投资，共同设定规则
 
“好人抱团推翻所有坏人”带来了一种古怪的结果：反而是好人动用战争去“消灭暴政、坏人”，这是美国过去几十年战争不断的原因，可美国还斗胆不以为那是战争。
 
美国一直糊弄大家，糊弄自己，觉得自己代表“正直”，任何人都不应当担心，美国把武器安到你家门口，也是出于善意，这种心态也使用到俄国身上【只有中国一直警觉，知道“亡我之心不死”】，还觉得俄国会接受美国的要求，这是俄国受了几十年气的原因，普京在2007年慕尼黑安全会议直接向西方提出来俄国的安全必须考虑，当时普京直瞪着坐在听众席的西方元首，结果大家充耳不闻，现在终于兵戎相见，等着美国行使“自由主义”来挽救当前的困境。
苏利文：外长贝克向戈尔巴乔夫的（口头）许诺无关紧要；普京：北约必须书面保证不接纳乌克兰为成员
利比亚美国也是越权，耍了中俄（当时中国还有点傻傻的）
 
最近美伊一直还就恢复伊核协定谈判，谈得很艰难，原因是美国尽管公开承认推出伊核协定是过去十年外交政策最大的失误，但却不肯认错，
美国正在和伊朗就伊核问题再次谈判，美国已经公开承认退出伊核协议是“美国外交史上最大的错误之一”【13】，但美国迟迟不肯下决心取消对伊朗的制裁，然后双方重新回到原来的协议。这个细节比较复杂，在此不细说，关键的，是美国明知自己退出没理，还没用，但还要伊朗先让步，“以前以为增大制裁就制住你们，你们会投降，但发现没用，但尽管没用，你们得先投降，我们才会认错”，把人当傻子。
 
对伊朗来说，美国是个没有信誉的国家，说话不算数，这次谈判的一大难点是伊朗要美国许诺，重新加入后不变卦，美国政府说那不行，美国体制不允许，这就是说美国这个国家从体制就不可能信（有人甚至说即使是双边协定（Treaty），美国政府也可以反悔），这次俄国提出书面要求，也算是将了美国一军。
As Peter Beinart recently noted, the United States has repeatedly declared the Western Hemisphere to be off-limits to other great powers and has threatened or used force on numerous occasions to make that declaration stick
 
沃尔特：美国和北约鹰派说“北约是个开放性的组织，欢迎所有合格国家加入”是瞎扯，误读章程，是一种挑衅，北约是一个军事联盟，说一个军事联盟不会对他人威胁，是明显把他人视为弱智，是侮辱。北约这种好人坏人的态度基本上美国单极霸权心态的延伸，我就是欺负到你家门口了，你咋办？从这个角度，你可以看出普京习近平怎么会受得了？关键是美国在遇到真正的对手时，并不占上风，美国能重创对手，但较量中可能败北，在乌克兰，美国是可以制裁俄国，但俄国在美国欧洲北约威胁下把乌克兰炸烂，也是向西方证明你们“永远与乌克兰人民站在一起”是狗屁，一点用都没有。
officials in Europe and the United States never seemed to have asked themselves whether Russia might object to this outcome or what it might do to derail it. As a result, they were blindsided when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the seizure of Crimea
 
美国外交界元老，哈佛教授沃尔特（Stephen M. Walt），
 
俄国的行为也激起其他国家的反感，也跟着以示威的方式与俄国对抗，这很讨厌，也显得孤立，但俄国能简单置之不顾吗？
 
这还没完。
 
美国人对于他人受难是绝对没有多少同情心的，看看美国动用的制裁就可见一斑，多少人为此毁了一辈子，多少人丧失了生命，美国看到的，只是“人权”只是“美国秩序”，这也是美国借助叶利钦这个卖国贼把俄罗斯摧毁，经济崩溃，整一代俄国人失去了生存的空间，人均寿命掉到58岁，可有多少美国人知道？没几个，知道的也不在乎。作为国与国之间的竞争，这也无奈，可偏偏美国还来给你一套价值观
 
 
 
想想美国在叙利亚驻军，压制叙利亚政府和对己不利的敌对势力，还保护石油资源，俄国是不是也可以以威胁俄国利益为理由在攻击乌克兰的同时惩罚一下波罗的海三国？这3国是北约成语，他们是不是狐假虎威（都很敌视俄国）借机向俄国示威？
 
普京将美国一军，也是一个战略机会，美国不是要和中国争天下吗？你能两面作战吗？敢把精力放在欧洲，为一个小小的乌克兰卖命吗？俄国这是不是利用中国实际上是无关的，对中国没什么影响，只是给普金将军的机会。这点，连美国的金灿荣（Hal Brands，霍普金斯大学）都觉得不行了不行了，太累了，他的想法很简单，价值为基础的外交政策必然使得美国四处奔波，疲于奔命，因为价值没法分主次，所有利益都是核心利益
2000年前后，美国立志打造能同时打两场大战的能力，这在今天中国军力发展起来之后就显得幼稚了，虽然美国放弃了这一奢望，但冷战后美国一切外交都从军事角度考虑的习惯并没有变，这就使得美国军力更加力不从心，
America’s defense strategy is increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific, but its foreign policy remains stubbornly global
 
 
"Kyiv is stunned,"
马克龙就法国就任欧盟主席讲话：
 
 
更长的历史，西方毁诺，北约扩张
2008年小布什力排众议许诺乌克兰乔治亚加入北约，当时欧洲很多人反对，普京还被邀参加了北约会议，当场反客为主公开表示俄国不可能接受，结果大家以搁置的方式不提了，但也没放弃，种下恶果
 losing sight of the idea that the Kremlin too has vital interests.
现在普京的要求，欧洲，尤其是东欧接受不了，但这有先例：芬兰，芬兰就通过自己的宪法表示中立，满足俄国（苏联）的要求，也好好的
US and German strategists had given “very clear signals” that Nato would not expand farther eastward if Germany were allowed to reunite. But this sphere of influence commitment was quickly dropped in the 1990s and early part of the 2000s as Russia struggled as an independent country and a string of eastern bloc countries joined Nato and the EU.
欺负当时的俄国和卖国贼叶利钦（虽然他也大骂，但被美国操纵上台的，有什么用？）
has provided $2.5bn in military aid, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, s
 
历史
 
号称“普京的哲学家”的杜金说的，自然是反应极端俄国民族主义，领土这玩意儿很微妙，俄国与中国有着说不清的关系，我就不顺着他的意思说了，但他说的，联想起台湾，很有“启发性”。
 
首先他说乌克兰历史上一直是俄国的一部分，分离出去只是历史上少数脱俄入欧的人，但他们很多时候占据上风，使得乌克兰跟着折腾，这一说法用在台湾上肯定恰当。他说的，有时觉得跟普京说的差不多，也许两人说的是同一个意思。普京不久前曾经写过论述，也是讲述乌克兰如何是俄罗斯“不可分割的一部分”，现在完全“吞并”是难点，但杜金通过“两种乌克兰人”的方式，和亲西方的那些“异类”属于纳粹份子，是屠杀其他乌克兰人的暴徒，“当莫斯科软弱，并且任由白痴或西方势力的直接代理人统治时，俄罗斯就失去了乌克兰，让乌克兰落入了那些立即被西方选中的极端民族主义政客手中”，他暗示现在的局面“只能有一个解决方案：将乌克兰分成两部分，承认两个政治主权——西部的右岸乌克兰（Western Right Bank Ukraine ）和新俄罗斯（Novorossiya）”。他把这一切归咎于“新一轮的升级自从拜登上台开始，白宫里出现了一群极端的全球主义者、大西洋主义者、新保守主义者和不惜任何代价挽回单极世界的支持者”，与中国、台湾的状况何其相似。
 
这事实上很难，普京还签了明斯克协议，但也许这正些普京讨价的出发点。
 
西方也同意历史很复杂，乌克兰是不是一直“独立”说不清
Now, Ukraine is searching for Yaroslav’s missing bones.
雅罗斯拉夫，博学的基辅王子骨骸
 
北约文件解密：美国北约确实向戈尔巴乔夫许诺不扩张
 
克林顿
 
 
最新揭秘：冷战中情局一直和纳粹联手，试图颠覆苏联
 
as the year when President Vladimir Putin gave up on talking to Ukraine’s leadership and made his decisive move
almost all of the requisite components and justifications for military intervention are either in—or moving into—place
普京的行为也是对拜登、美国的回应，你以为你能吓唬我，震住我？
one-on-one meeting with Biden in Geneva, explicit recognition of Russia’s status as a “worthy adversary,”
大国待遇
北溪2号，俄国人不理睬政治，普京不错，财政也不错，给军方发钱，正逢欧洲能源危机
美国内乱也给俄国一种东升西降的感觉，哈，俄国精英对普京还是买账，普京和俄国精英也觉得中国、习近平靠谱，双方关系是西方的隐患，但他们
此文说明西方俄国不了解，“转移视线”就是坐在伦敦华府柏林瞎猜，实际上，普京在2021年的处境极佳
 
个人遗产：No item on that agenda is more important—or more pivotal—than the return of Ukraine to the fold.
这点，普京、习近平，俄国、中国都一样，美国将之视为没有“合法性”，不是大国，即使称之为大国，也不予以大国待遇，就是不理你，骂你，这是我多次描述的，美国就是不跟中国正式谈判，而是在旁边到处开批斗会，不停地骂，能捅一刀就捅。美国也是这样对待俄国的。美国不能理解，不能容忍俄国有“战略纵深”这么一个要求，（门罗纲领）
美国这种傲慢的态度把即使是不愿意交往也不得不结盟的中俄推到一起，美国那套“我维护正义，把军舰、飞机、导弹放到你家门口你也不能有意见”，想想台湾。
 
乌克兰是俄国国安的核心、关键，红线，北约扩张，乌克兰颜色革命，在普京看来都是美国包围俄国的计划一部分
俄乌对明斯克协议都不满，乌克兰也越来越强，美国军援越来越多，显然美国是在插手，难以对付
Zelenskyy rackdown on Putin’s close friend Viktor Medvedchuk and his media holdings，显然违宪（台湾中天）
普京的有利地位：乌克兰是俄国核心利益，不是西方，普京会动武，西方不可能
分析的情形一
 
非常有内容
all of the Western anxiety and hand-wringing about the crisis seems to be clouding people’s ability to listen to what the Kremlin is actually saying. Until now, there has been surprisingly little Western acknowledgement that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being much blunter about what he wants in Ukraine and the lengths to which he is prepared to go to obtain it
Putin has said that he wants a deal to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO. He also wants a Western promise never to deploy NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine. Putin cited U.S. MK-41 missile launchers now in Romania to illustrate what he’s worried about: “I will repeat once again that the issue concerns the possible deployment in the territory of Ukraine of strike systems with the flight time of 7–10 minutes to Moscow, or 5 minutes in the case of hypersonic systems. Just imagine that.”
Rather it is aimed at persuading the West that Russia is prepared to start a full-scale war over Ukraine unless something is done about the existing and (in Putin’s eyes, at least) completely unacceptable state of affairs.
First, Russia attaches paramount importance to Ukraine. Second, its patience with the status quo is running thin
 It wants to prevent the European Union from linking flows of Russian natural gas to Europe to the Ukrainian conflict.
这些美国西方直接说相反的，俄国都提出来了
But it wants to convince the United States that it is prepared to bear those costs because of the importance of Ukraine for Russian national interests.
 
Putin is also seeking to persuade Washington that unlike Russia, it has little to lose from compromising over Ukraine. The country’s fate is hardly a U.S. vital interest worth going to war over
 
中国能不能学俄国，在台海陈兵，然后逼美国1个月内表态，不表就打？
 
这是为什么中国对美国萨德入韩反应那么大的原因，中国没有反制之力，结果慢慢忍了，俄罗斯就不会买账，北约一再表示（“目前”）不会考虑乌克兰的成员申请，但这种口头许诺，是一种不可容忍的威胁，对俄罗斯来说，北约靠得太近，事关俄罗斯生死存亡。
 
1: NATO’s first eastward expansion
2: NATO’s military intervention in the Balkans
3: NATO’s subsequent waves of expansion
4: treating Russia as an outright enemy in Ukraine and elsewhere
 
 
 
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