12/07/2009 美股评论

Updated view to 12/04/2009

The market was consolidating with SPX (+1 - +5) and NDX (-4 - +5) before 2:20pm ET while almost all leader stocks and all major sectors were in red, yet SPX and NDX could be in green which was because semiconductor sector was upgraded with CMCSA and NVDA gapping big up to major resistance. They supported indice temporarily and would go down to fill the gap later on.

Today, it's the first time that all major sectors and leading stocks (except GOOG/CSCO) went down. Hence, Ben Bernanke reported "bad news" about economy recovery at the great timing to give a reason to explain the sell-off, which is eagerly expected and needed by most improfessional market players. So short positions are considered as clairvoyant for the prescheduled timing of Bernanke speech.

Down trend, at least in the short term, is being prudently viewed as confirmed.

ORCL, as a flag, showed the down trend direction.

SPX touched 20SMA/integral point 1100 and closed at 1103 which is however below the consolidating resistance 1106.
NDX closed at 20SMA 1784.

Upon indice breaking down 20SMA, it would accelerate the down trend which would be a good timing to accumulate short positions.

No position adjustments today.

12/04/2009 美股评论

Updated view to 12/03/2009

Conclusion: bearish, at least for the tradable short term.

INTC Gap Up with volume and closing at main resistent line shows its up-potential disappearing, so does CSCO which however is stronger.

AMZN has formed at least temporary top.

GOOG Gap Up and closing with big red bar and big volume shows topping.

MSFT/ORCL will be observed with close foucs as flag because they are on the triggering point for both directions.

XOM representing oil sector continued to show weakness.

Added short positions from 30% to 55%.