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前几天,大千有位高手发帖说,趋势的天敌是震荡,震荡的天敌是趋势。
趋势与震荡的关系是鱼与熊掌的关系,往往不可兼得。人心总是贪婪的,读帖之后,一直在想,到底有没有一种方法可以同时掌控K线的趋势与震荡?
我找到的方法是:K线四分法。一般的K线分为上升趋势与下降趋势两类。这样当震荡幅度扩大的时候,往往会频频止损。K线四分法,就是把K线分为直线上升,震荡上升,直线下降,震荡下降四类。这样,既能顺势交易,又能在震荡来临的时候,确保仓位。
现以科技股为例,展示一下K线四分法的具体应用。
下图是美股主要科技股的趋势分析。其中,15个为直线上升型,10个为震荡上升型,2个为震荡下跌型,3个为直线下跌型。
操作方法是,在震荡上升是买入或加仓,在直线上升时,让利润奔跑,K线转为下跌型态时及时止损。
(此为抛砖引玉,不足之处,请大家补充。)
TREND VALUE | TREND / CONSOLIDATING | |
FISV | 100% | STRAIGHT UP |
FB | 100% | STRAIGHT UP |
ISRG | 100% | STRAIGHT UP |
ADBE | 100% | STRAIGHT UP |
AMGN | 93% | STRAIGHT UP |
PYPL | 73% | STRAIGHT UP |
NVDA | 67% | STRAIGHT UP |
GILD | 60% | STRAIGHT UP |
SBUX | 47% | STRAIGHT UP |
PEP | 47% | STRAIGHT UP |
NFLX | 40% | STRAIGHT UP |
AMZN | 40% | STRAIGHT UP |
TXN | 20% | STRAIGHT UP |
BKNG | 20% | STRAIGHT UP |
TMUS | 13% | STRAIGHT UP |
AAPL | 107% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
AVGO | 67% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
MSFT | 60% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
ADP | 60% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
INTC | 53% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOGL | 5% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOG | 5% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
MDLZ | 5% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
COST | 5% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
INTU | 5% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
CMCSA | -27% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
CSCO | -47% | CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
CHTR | -13% | STRAIGHT DOWN |
TSLA | -20% | STRAIGHT DOWN |
QCOM | -33% | STRAIGHT DOWN |