日本才是俄罗斯-乌克兰危机中最尴尬的国家

欧美与俄罗斯在乌克兰的角力达到白热化程度。不少人想到了中国当局的尴尬：俄罗斯乌克兰都是中国的好朋友，偏袒哪个都不好；欧洲美国也都是中国的主要贸易伙伴，中国也犯不着与他们作对。

其实与中国相比，日本的处境更为难堪。

由于领土和历史的问题，日本与其两个亚洲近邻中国和韩国关系紧张。为了把傲慢进行到底，安倍政权选择了讨好俄罗斯普京当局。在刚刚结束的素挈冬奥会上，日本是西方大国中唯一由政府首脑安倍亲自出马参加开幕式捧场的，并且借机举行了安倍-普京会谈。这个会谈就发生在俄乌危机爆发前夕的二月八日。

今天英文《日本时报》的这篇“日本拥抱俄罗斯遭遇乌克兰危机威胁”很好地展示了日本首鼠两端的困境。

一方面日本的盟友美国和欧洲都在大声谴责俄罗斯和普京，并扬言要进行制裁；另一方面日本却不想失去来之不易的日俄友好关系。特别是日本核电站全部关闭后，俄罗斯的石油和天然气就成为了日本的主要能源供应之一。故此，周二日本贸易大臣宣称“日俄之间的经济和资源外交关系没有改变”。

果真如此，奥巴马气势汹汹的制裁威胁由于日本的抵制就会大打折扣。

日本会不会因为自身利益抵制美国领导的对俄制裁？

很难说。

“六四”以后，在美国和西方的对华经济制裁中，日本起先也勉强参与了，但它为了自身的经济利益，在西方阵营中最早恢复与中国的经贸关系。所以如今安倍首相鼓吹对华“价值观外交”，简直是对日本奉行见利忘义外交政策的自我嘲讽。

不过如果美国欧洲与俄罗斯矛盾尖锐化，而日本继续做墙头草，他这个西方盟国地位就不会不冒犯美国欧洲。

但如果日本为了顺服美国而与俄罗斯普京翻脸，那他前面讨好俄罗斯的功夫就算是白费了。

倒是普京这个混世魔王如果想得到中国的关键支持或者完全中立，又与日本继续拉拉扯扯，恐怕中国方面不会不趁机敲打敲打这头北极熊了。

Japan’s embrace of Russia under threat with Ukraine crisis

by Aaron Sheldrick

Reuters

• Mar 5, 2014

Russia’s incursion into Ukraine is setting off alarm bells in Tokyo, where officials worry that any push by the nation’s Western allies to impose economic penalties will undermine its drive to improve relations with Moscow.

While U.S. President Barack Obama and other Group of Seven leaders of advanced economies talk of sanctions or other punitive responses, Japanese officials say ties with Moscow remain on track.

There has been no change in the direction of economic and resource diplomacy between Japan and Russia, trade minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Tuesday.

In reality, “they are in a state of shock”, one diplomatic source close to the situation said, referring to Japanese officials. “It is a big pain in the back for the Japanese government.”

Closer ties are being driven by mutual energy interests, as Russia plans to at least double oil and gas flows to Asia in the next 20 years and Japan is forced to import huge volumes of fossil fuel to replace lost energy from its nuclear power industry, shut down after the March 2011 Fukushima disaster.

“If Western countries come together and agree to take action such as imposing economic sanctions, we may be affected,” said a senior executive at a Japanese company involved in the energy sector in Russia.

“We don’t know what will happen at the moment, but I am afraid the energy sector usually gets a lot of attention.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made better ties with Moscow a priority since returning to power 15 months ago and has met President Vladimir Putin five times despite the territorial dispute dating from World War II.

By contrast, Abe has not met either of the leaders of neighboring South Korea or China. Tokyo is embroiled in disputes over uninhabited islands and wartime history with both countries.

Russian forces seized Crimea, an isolated Black Sea peninsula with an ethnic Russian majority, without firing a shot following the ousting of the pro-Moscow Viktor Yanukovich as Ukrainian president last month.

All eyes are now on whether Russia makes a military move in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow demonstrators have marched and raised Russian flags over public buildings in several cities in the last three days.

Following his return to power in December 2012, Abe has traveled extensively, pushing for expanded trade ties and investment for Japan as he attempts to jolt the country’s economy out of more than a decade of stagnant growth.

Russian ties have been a major focus of that diplomatic effort and Abe’s visit to Moscow in April last year was the first by a Japanese prime minister in a decade. He has met Putin more than any other leader, the Foreign Ministry confirmed.

Abe attended the opening ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympics last month, while Obama, French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minister David Cameron stayed away. While there, he announced a visit to Japan by Putin in the autumn.

Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida still plans to visit Russia this spring, the government said Monday.

Official comments by Japanese officials have stressed the need to respect territorial integrity, softer language than Tokyo signed up to in a G-7 statement on the Crimean situation Monday. G-7 leaders pulled out of talks on a G-8 summit in Sochi, according to the statement.

“As a G-7 member, we agreed on the statement. Japan is hoping that the situation will improve following the statement,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday, when asked about differences in the statement and Kishida’s comments on the crisis.

Japan has a lot at stake. An agreement on the islands northeast of Hokkaido seized by Russia with the eviction of 17,000 Japanese would involve a peace treaty, after the two sides failed to formally close the war in 1945, and pave the way for closer energy ties.

A dramatic transformation is underway in Russia’s energy sector, with oil flows being redirected to Asia via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and Putin pushing for more gas sales to reduce Moscow’s reliance on Europe.

Japan now consumes a third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, and purchased 10 percent of its supplies from Russia’s east, which lies on Japan’s doorstep.

Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies to the world’s fourth-biggest crude importer.

With all the country’s nuclear reactors shut down and no timetable for restarts, Tokyo is desperate to diversify and slash costs of energy imports and Japanese companies are involved in Russian projects to export more gas in liquid form.

“A worsening relationship between the U.S. and EU with Russia may damage Japan’s ongoing improved dialogue with its closest neighbor if economic, trade, or banking sanctions follow,” said Tom O’Sullivan, founder of Independent energy consultancy Mathyos Japan.

“This could impact Japan’s gas and oil imports from Russia as well as investments in upstream energy assets at a time when Japan’s energy security is still threatened due to the continued closure of all of its nuclear power plants.”

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