最早由气象学家洛轮兹提出的蝴蝶效应，不是指真实的气象系统，而是指模拟自然系统

的数学模型（非性系模型），用这种模型做长期性的预报是不可能的，因为初始条件改变一点点

，结果就会出现巨大差异。

，ChatGPT reply ：Yes, you are correct. The "butterfly effect" is primarily about the outcomes observed in mathematical models of weather and other complex systems. It highlights the sensitivity of these models to their initial conditions. In the real world, this translates to the idea that weather is inherently unpredictable over long periods due to the immense complexity and interdependence of various factors. Lorenz's concept was a way to explain why precise, long-term weather forecasting is so challenging, rather than a literal claim about the direct cause-and-effect in weather phenomena.