生活其实很简单
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I have said enough how much I admire Mr. Buffett(I mostly call him Buffet for some reason), and I have been a long term holder of his BRK.A. Now Mr. Buffett said, he is buying US stocks. Based on his record, he should be right again. But before you jump in too soon, please read his time frame, his time frame is 5, 10 or 20 years. Think of it, even 1929 crash recovered after 20 years. But you need to ask yourself, how many 20 years you have and can you stand that 20 years of emotional down time?
As small investors, if you want to follow him, you need to make sure that, your time horizon is also 5, 10 and 20 years. I believe in long term investment myself. However, seeing the wreck created by WS, seeing the severe economic down turn ahead of us, and seeing this Big Bear will not go away soon before it will do a lot more damage, I start to doubt if it's wise to buy and hold into "good long term holdings" through the whole bear market. With that doubt in mind, I will make adjustment to my investment logic and I will follow my own instinct to start to unload some of my long term holdings during any rally, not everything, but at least a large percentage of it to preserve the wealth. SELLING INTO RALLY, NOT NOW.
The market and economic situation now is like a house on fire, whoever stays in the house will be burnt. This adjustment might be made a bit late, I should have done that maybe 6 months ago. However, I do believe that, selling into any powerful rally before the next big bear leg down is not too late. Mistakes are made, now it's time to correct it and move on.
After all, we are not Buffett. He has all the insight before he decides what stock he will buy and also, he gets much better deal than all of us due to his deep pocket. Mind you, Mr. Buffett will not tell you if he decides to sell stocks. You will find out after he has done the selling, by then, it is always too late for you to sell. Also, Buffett makes mistake too. The recent deals have consumed a large trunk of BRK's cash and I do have concern on that if Mr. Buffett keeps buying stuff. Anyway, who the hell I think I am to doubt Mr. Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time. A Hall of Fame.
Mr. Buffett is based on the mindset that, when people are most fearful, you buy. My concern now is, the most, most fearful moment is yet to come. Thus, not only I will not follow him to buy, I will sell into any rally. I don't want to be a hero, I just want to be the so called "Plumber Joe". Plumber Joe's job is to survive.
By the way, this election is not about either candidate, it's about Plumber Joe. I can't stop myself laughing watching the debate about "Plumber Joe" the other night. Both candiates seem to be very very caring about Plumber Joe, just like Wall Street cares about Plumber Joe's 401k. What a joke! All they care now is the vote!
As small investors, if you want to follow him, you need to make sure that, your time horizon is also 5, 10 and 20 years. I believe in long term investment myself. However, seeing the wreck created by WS, seeing the severe economic down turn ahead of us, and seeing this Big Bear will not go away soon before it will do a lot more damage, I start to doubt if it's wise to buy and hold into "good long term holdings" through the whole bear market. With that doubt in mind, I will make adjustment to my investment logic and I will follow my own instinct to start to unload some of my long term holdings during any rally, not everything, but at least a large percentage of it to preserve the wealth. SELLING INTO RALLY, NOT NOW.
The market and economic situation now is like a house on fire, whoever stays in the house will be burnt. This adjustment might be made a bit late, I should have done that maybe 6 months ago. However, I do believe that, selling into any powerful rally before the next big bear leg down is not too late. Mistakes are made, now it's time to correct it and move on.
After all, we are not Buffett. He has all the insight before he decides what stock he will buy and also, he gets much better deal than all of us due to his deep pocket. Mind you, Mr. Buffett will not tell you if he decides to sell stocks. You will find out after he has done the selling, by then, it is always too late for you to sell. Also, Buffett makes mistake too. The recent deals have consumed a large trunk of BRK's cash and I do have concern on that if Mr. Buffett keeps buying stuff. Anyway, who the hell I think I am to doubt Mr. Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time. A Hall of Fame.
Mr. Buffett is based on the mindset that, when people are most fearful, you buy. My concern now is, the most, most fearful moment is yet to come. Thus, not only I will not follow him to buy, I will sell into any rally. I don't want to be a hero, I just want to be the so called "Plumber Joe". Plumber Joe's job is to survive.
By the way, this election is not about either candidate, it's about Plumber Joe. I can't stop myself laughing watching the debate about "Plumber Joe" the other night. Both candiates seem to be very very caring about Plumber Joe, just like Wall Street cares about Plumber Joe's 401k. What a joke! All they care now is the vote!
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