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可恨盈亏无定数 无奈财富险中求
牛经沧海
5/30/2009
股市博弈, 投资者博的是长期的价值积聚, 投机者博的是风险回报. 自2000年以来的两次熊市给投资者带来了毁灭性的打击. 有趣的是, 每当有受访GURU提及市场上涨过多, CBNC的主持人事后都要抱怨她的401K还40%水下.
面对现实, 沧海这样的恒牛也不得不质问: 价值意义能几何? 价格才是硬道理. 值得庆幸的是, 自三月由投资者堕化成投机者以来, 市场比较配合, 至今竟然有两倍以上的回报 (图一). 遗憾的是, 沧海清醒地知道, 这些回报主要来自冒险, 完全没有可重复性, 也就是大师们津津乐道及吾辈春宵一刻的锡统. 有了锡统, 股市博弈就像是ENGINEERING, 原料是银子, 成品是更多的银子, 赚钱就有了可预测性. 不信还真不行. 前不久看了一个节目, 介绍了如何将散碎的钻石放入一套高温高压的容器内, 加入石墨, 居然产出大块的, 更高性能的钻石! 只可惜自GE于50年代研发以来, 暂未进入商业化阶段, 否则男银们每天都能送一枚大钻石给MM, ZIYI 或许不必委身鬼子 (图二)?
回到本题, 沧海的当日持仓 (图三)来看, 风险是426, 即大市的4.26倍. 换句话说, 大市如跌20%(呸!呸!呸!), 三月之盈, 亏于一旦. 正因如是, 特书此贴提醒各位, 每当你看到他有几个成功的"HAO TRADES", 一定要搞清楚风险几许, 盈利几何.
最后, 沧海还是要预测一下大市. 5周前(04/25/09贴(图四)), 据道指判断其后有50%可能是两周上涨, 一周震荡, 一周上行. 如今回头看来, 蒙的不差, 只是震荡了两周, 第五周上攻. 蒙对了, 还接著来. 据沧海观察, 8500一线有沉重阻力, 屡攻不下, 或假以时日, 积聚更多的能量, 方可一举拿下. 如果回调, 8000有支撑. 一旦上攻突破, 9000可得(图五).
预测市场, 知其不可为而为之, 准备预案, 不足为据.
图一回报
图二钻石ZIYI
图三风险
Description | Ticker | Percent | Value(USD) | Risk Grade | Risk Impact | XLoss(USD) |
Cash |
| -17.60% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
|
U.S. Dollar |
| -17.60% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
|
Large Cap |
| 8.40% |
| 253 | 2.90% |
|
Cover at lower open | MA | -6.40% |
| 230 | -1.30% |
|
Target at 39 | JPM | 6.70% |
| 167 | 2.10% |
|
Target at 50 | BA | 8.10% |
| 165 | 2.10% |
|
Mid/Small Cap |
| 60.40% |
| 507 | 66.80% |
|
Target at 8.5 | DUZFU | 0.20% |
| 3776 | 0.60% |
|
Target at 8.5 | VPHM | 3.80% |
| 370 | 1.50% |
|
Stop at 24.25 cl | TSRA | -10.70% |
| 397 | -3.20% |
|
Target at 3.5 | PNX | 3.70% |
| 447 | 2.70% |
|
BK | MTWVQ | 0.00% |
| 1888 | 0.00% |
|
Target at 25 and 29 | MDVN | 4.10% |
| 363 | 1.50% |
|
Tartget at 50 and 55 | UFRFH | 2.40% |
| 1856 | 5.50% |
|
Target at 165 | AXQFJ | 1.50% |
| 3043 | 7.80% |
|
Target at 21.5 | GQKFD | 0.30% |
| 2136 | 0.50% |
|
Target at 24 and 30 | DNDN | 24.70% |
| 684 | 24.50% |
|
Target at 3.75 | CYTK | 2.50% |
| 302 | 1.10% |
|
Failed | CRMFH | 0.20% |
| 3715 | 1.30% |
|
Target at 165 | CLMT | 4.80% |
| 296 | 0.30% |
|
Target at 12 and 14 | BXFB | 2.80% |
| 2266 | 9.70% |
|
Target at 12 and 14 | BX | 11.90% |
| 348 | 7.80% |
|
Target at 24 and 30 | AKAM | 8.10% |
| 267 | 1.80% |
|
International |
| 32.10% |
| 336 | 20.20% |
|
Cover at lower open | AUY | -4.30% |
| 372 | -1.60% |
|
Target at 20 | STPFP | 0.80% |
| 2996 | 3.00% |
|
Target at 37 | NAT | 6.10% |
| 192 | 1.80% |
|
Target at 10, 16 and 25 | LDK | 3.30% |
| 508 | 2.40% |
|
Target at 42 | FXI | 13.60% |
| 281 | 6.40% |
|
Target at 14 and 18 | JRJC | 4.50% |
| 460 | 2.60% |
|
Target at 30 and 32 | CCJFE | 0.60% |
| 2133 | 2.10% |
|
Target at 20 and 24 | BAM | 6.40% |
| 222 | 2.30% |
|
Target at 3 and 5 | YAOAZ | 1.10% |
| 1162 | 1.90% |
|
Other |
| 16.70% |
| 164 | 5.40% |
|
Tartget at 18 and 20 | UNG | 2.60% |
| 186 | 0.20% |
|
Target at 5 and 6 | UYG | 7.50% |
| 344 | 5.30% |
|
Target at 19.5 and 21 | DGI | 6.50% |
| 49 | -0.10% |
|
TOTAL |
| 100.00% |
| 426 |
|
|
图四回顾
图五妄议
价值意义能几何? 价格才是硬道理.
Disclaim: The author is not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. The author’s discussions do not serve as recommendations or suggestions for buying or selling any stocks or other instruments. The information contained in the blog is provided as is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
