PHIL 关于油的看法..

The Energy Report for Friday, February 16th, 2007



Ooh, missed it by that much. The Department of Energy reported the biggest natural gas withdrawal in 10 years but just missed the all time record by a whisper. The Department of Energy reported that natural gas supplies fell by 259 billion cubic feet just short of the record. Now I think had I decided to brave the cold and cook my steak on the outdoor grill it might have been enough to put it over the edge, especially if I cooked my wife’s steak because she likes hers well done.



The Department of Energy report that fell short of the whisper number sent petroleum on a nice downward slide. Oil tried to break through the support below 5650 but could not get the job done. The bottom line is just sit back and enjoy the day trading opportunities.



I have see the light and I think I'm ready to embrace global warming. In fact in an article I will post today I will lay out the reason to embrace global warming.



A Global Warming Bonanza!



Haven’t you heard? The world is in peril! It’s got to be so because former Vice President Al Gore says it's so. And how would a career politician like Al Gore know anything about global warming in the first place? Well, say what you want about Al Gore when it comes to science, the man definitely has credentials.



For example, you might not know this but in his younger years as a college student Mr. Gore invented the internet. He did this in his spare time as he spent the rest of his time studying hard and inspiring the book "Love Story”. Even back then Mr. Gore knew the importance of never having to say you’re sorry and when it comes to global warming this obviously is absolutely more imperative. Mr. Gore knows the inconvenient truth that the earth needs to be in balance not only ecologically speaking, but also in the human spirit.



The earth is changing as the polar ice caps are melting and the poor polar bears are drowning in the middle of the ocean as the seals look on in laughter! The seals have something to celebrate as they dance with the happy feet penguins. But they won’t be celebrating too long because as the ice caps melt they might be whooshed away and find themselves in Iowa which at that time could end up being a parched wasteland.


In fact you don’t have to look too far to see the effects of global warming all around us. For example in the beginning of January it was unseasonable warm. Well obviously that was caused by global warming. Was it just an inconvenient truth that we then plunged to one of the coldest starts to February ever on record? Nope, that was caused by global warming too. And the record hurricane season we had in 2005; yep, that was caused by global warming. And the less than active hurricane season -you guessed it - global warming too. In fact I think the real reason the Chicago Bears lost the Super Bowl was that global warming caused the rainstorm that caused that slippery football to fling itself out of Rex Grossman’s hands.



And don’t think that global warming can't hurt you. If you’re having a bad hair day it is probably more than likely that it was caused by global warming. A bad day of golf, the extra warmth in the atmosphere probably made that ball slice more than normal. Oh the list of global warming "truths" goes on and on.



Now some scientists would try to tell you that global warming is just a theory. Poppy cock I say! That’s right - double poppy cock! In fact the majority of the scientific community has banded together and is so strongly behind the reasons and the causes of global warming that many want to ostracize and ridicule anyone that dare question them. In fact never has the scientific community been so sure it’s been right and so quick to condemn their detractors since the time they were trying to protect the theory that the world was flat. They just "knew" it was flat! Or how about the earth being the center of the universe (of course we all know now that Justin Timberlake is really the center of the universe). The scientists say it and therefore it must be taken for gospel, that global warming is here and it is being caused by human generated greenhouse gases and the cutting down of forests and stuff. They just know it!



So it is very important that you don’t question them and do anything that would help in their great quest to combat global warming. Things like the Kyoto treaty that will not really reduce greenhouse gases because it really just reduces emissions from the established industrialized nations and allows the less efficient and therefore more polluting nations to have free reign. Oh sure Kyoto is symbolic but lets face it, symbolism is very important when the planet is facing total doom.

Even that august body, the United Nations and their intergovernmental panel on climate change says that global warming is real you have got to sit up and take notice. I mean global warming experts tell you that this curse may hurt crops, it may spread disease, it may cause more hurricanes, it may do a lot of things just ask any right thinking scientist what it may do. And a lot of it may not be good!



Now I know what you are thinking. Is this not the same guy that was a skeptic when it came to global warming? Why now am I making such an impassioned defense supporting the supporters of the global warming phenomena? Did some tree hugging scientist pollute my mind with melting glacial statistics that melted my icy heart when it came to facing reality? Was it that big oil companies like Exxon Mobil that were long in denial about global warming were now acknowledging that doggone it, that global warming thing really exists? Was it the 35 degree below zero wind chill factor in Chicago that finally made wake up to the realties of global warming? Perhaps I took the time myself to study the data and came up with the inevitable truth that indeed global warming was happening and I was indeed the cause. I feel so guilty, such shame.



Well much to my shame the truth of the matter is that I saw what the global warming mania can do for the markets. I mean come on, look at the trading opportunities this global warming thing has provided. I mean almost overnight new industries are popping up before our very eyes and as a commodity trader you have got to love the fact that corn has doubled in price. In fact even though I'm still a bit skeptic on this global warming thing it's starting to be great for business so I agree with scientists who say that they are not absolutely sure that global warming is being caused by man-made sources so why take any chances.



Take ethanol. Not only has it doubled the price of corn, it may start to have the same effect on soybeans and the other grains as well. And it has been a boon to the railroads and truckers because ethanol cannot go through pipelines due to its corrosive nature so those industries are booming. We'll ignore the inconvenient truth that trucks do a whole lot of global warming polluting. Stock prices are soaring as many are trying to make some green on going green.



Listen if this global warming thing keeps up it could drive there price of corn up seven fold from the low and eventually drive beans to the teens. Not to mention of course the impact on precious metals as well as they seek to find new ways to make catalytic converters and batteries and other new technologies.



Global warming could cause a commodity boom as the green Jeans and Genes will make shifts that could cause big demand for many commodities. Then we can get the tractors going to grow the corn and we can go crazy strip-mining the earth for more raw materials. And many will profit from the global warming age. Then after we beat that global warming thing, we better get prepared to fight the coming ice age because bull markets don’t last for ever.



We're long March crude from apprx 5151 - leave stop at 5650 and profit objective of 6400.



Stopped on long March heating oil from apprx 15600 at apprx 16200! Buy March heating oil at 16000 stop 15700.



We're long March RBOB from apprx 15250 - leave stop at 15500!



We're long March natural gas from apprx 720 - raise stop to 730!!!



Have a GREAT day and weekend!