1. dollar has reached major resistance of 1.40. It needs to consolidate the huge run from 1.6 to 1.4.

2. with economy slowing and the recent drop in commodities,Fed may cut interest rates, which will give a big boost to commodity.

3. long term supply demand still point to higher oil price eventually. Growth in Chindia will pick up any demand slack in US.

4. There is blood everywhere on the street. People are scared to death to buy, which ironically, is the best opportunity to buy.

5. Can commodity drop another 10%? Absolutely, the major bottoms are always associated with some irrational behavior. But if you look 3 month beyond, I think all commodity will be significantly higher than now.