马甲：云悠

时间：06-02-04 16:14:30

股市大官园热闹非繁, 天天象过年, 也长了不少见识. 纵观股谈大事, A说ABC, B讲BCD, 使我等新手, 头如拨浪鼓, 左听右看, 脖子都歪了, 匝个还是一团谜误呢哩.

俺想同各位大虾小蟹, 由其是high hands, 虚心探讨一番, 多多指教.  小股散兵, 资金有限, 集中兵力, 尤其重要.  试想古今中外, 有几位大将能做到知己知彼, 四处出击,而又大获全胜呢. 更何况俺们肉眼凡胎, 多数情况只能捡些MM留下的残羹剩饭. 俺的观点, 完全以分散风险为名去买不知彼的个股有点自欺欺人. 听听俺的对不对.

With limited financial resources, focus is critical.

首先要看好industry. Oil and gas has been good, and may still remain so for a long time. Gold is still not bad too.   However, alternative energy (替代能源) is just at its infancy, and may experience 爆炸式增长. 为舍子呢? Energy shortage, global warming, we all know. In the solar area, both STP and SPWR expanded their manufacturing capacity by multi-folds in a short time, and CA passed energy bill providing subsidies encouraging solar panels usage, etc, all points to the same trend. 尽管小布的国情咨文演讲提到的用于alternative energy R&D 资金 还太少, 但这仍是一个很好的开端. 横望这市场, 目前正处战国初期, 正所谓狼烟四起, 诸侯割锯. 谁是未来的秦国, 还难以予料. In the competitive landscape, there is not much competition yet as the market is simply too big for anyone to dominate at this moment. Ethanol, fuel cell, solar, wind, etc.  有道曰, 乱世出英雄.

这也是大家需要共同努力的呀. 耳听六路, 眼观八方, 财富出于勤奋. 俺对目前大盘不甚明白. 策略是主力部队养精旭锐, 拭目以待. 若硬要出手, 也应出小股奇兵. 赢可少量增员, 扩大战果. 输者立即撤回. 看官要问了, 那何时动做呀, 俺可急死了. 甭急, 面包会有的. 俺信奉的语录是, 拧肯不赢, 但不能丢本. 懂TA的大虾应该发言了. 俺们农民想法简单, 不见兔子不撒鹰. For instance, in fall 1996, Intel's Pentium was selling like a hot cake. From a friend working in a PC shop, an learned Pentium chips were in very tight supply. No wonder, INTC 一日长十的往上串, MSFT 那时也是牛气冲天. 近处来看, 2005 AAPL iPod nano 横杀出世, 各大retailers 也频频告捷. 这些都是出手的极好机会.

正所谓不出则已 (休熄一年半载), 出拳一招就击中七寸.

Remember, 怕就怕平时兵力过于分散, 整日疲于拼命, 该合拳时已无能为力 (套牢).俺们农民进趟城也不易, 兄弟姐妹若同意给鼓个掌, 不同意给提个醒.

愿

有乐共享

有财同发

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