李李财的财经博客
希望和大家交流投资。
估计很多人都会有同样的疑问。出差在外清净的很终于调查试用了一些。
用诸如Discounted Cash Flow等作关键字查询的结果是有些Online的工具但感觉不够全面。然后找到了这个Rule #1的工具 - 可下载，需要手工查询输入数据，但计算很方便。考虑的数据也很全面：
EPS Growth Rate
Cash Flow Growth Rate
Equity Growth Rate
Sales Growth Rate
ROIC
有关Phil Town的Rule#1理论，先简要介绍一下。据说此君过去是导游船上的渔夫，因为一次从悬崖边上把一帮投资家游客的命救回来，投资家就传授了一些巴菲特派的投资理论给他。学成后从朋友那里借1000元起家，据说是5年内成了1 million.此君从此扬名立万。
他的Rule #1理论道理是显而易见，就是说绝对不能从投资中亏钱。你说那怎么可能？ 别忙，他有两条依据：
1）要有一套完整的估值模型能够准确的估计出公司的真正价值。
2）等待买入的时机 - 只有在公司的股票价值低于其内在价值的50%的时候才出手。 涨回到或高于实际价值的时候就卖掉，寻找别的机会。
其他的还有公司要有护城河，别的公司不容易进入，等等。
关于1），他的网站提供了一个Offline的工具。（http://www.philtown.com/）。今天下载用MCO （Moody's)演算了一下，（Disclose: 本人持有MCO数月），现在的Margin Of Safety大概有40%（以Future EPS Growth Rate 16%, Future PE 24代入计算的），现在已经不符合Rule #1的基准但比较接近。
下面的计划就是把他的这个Formula改装成自用软件，和money.msn.com做成实时链接，并自动生成Watch List。 理论很容易懂，剩下的就是如何在心里上克服对市场舆论的抵抗和建成更有效的工具。现在的感觉是理论读过了，工具还不完善。这个下载的工具计算一个股票的话大概要45分钟。还是比较费时。(做成工具的想法还是受老周帖子的启发，Watch List还是要一定的自动化，感谢大家的在投资理财的POST，很多时候挺有启发）
I worked with Moody's for nearly 15 years and know their franchise well. I was a rating agency relationship manager with a fortune 50 U.S. Company and I issued corporate debt around the world. I have recently taken a long position in this stock and feel they are one of the best plays in the beaten down U.S. financial arena. Here are some of the reasons I went "long" recently.
1)Moody's is one of two companies that dominate the worldwide debt ratings business (the other is S&P) and I don't see that chaninging a bit. Fitch is an also ran. Being a dominate player, they can literally print money over the long term. Look at their profit margins over the last 10 years. They average 25-30 % after tax profits margins. So for every $1 billion in revenues, they make $250 million in net after tax profits. Very very few companies in the World can do that.
2) They have strong international growth and are not just linked to the U.S. debt markets. They are growing 20-25% outside the U.S. over the last 5 years.
3) They have historically been quick to cut staff when the market hiccups and debt issuance slows. Recently they dropped 7% of their U.S. staff to reflect the shutdown of the sub-prime mortgage business.
4) They have virtually always won major lawsuits when their ratings have been questioned. I expect the same this time around.
5) They are in a business that others will have a hard time entering. If you are a major U.S. corporation, you still need their ratings. Moody's is the gold standard for debt ratings. They are even more important than S&P. Warren Buffet can enter the municipal insurance business because he knows that buiness, so the MBIA's of the world need to be fearful. But Buffect will not compete against Moody's as he is owns over 18% of this Company already or 48 million shares. At least that was his holdings as of 9/30/2007. If anything, smart Buffet would be buying more shares of MCO now as this is the type of strong company that he loves for the long term.
I do not know how low MCO may go, but if you are a long term investor, this is a great time to be buying MCO. Because of the huge profit margin potential from this business over time and the potential for continued strong worldwide revenue growth, this stock will over time command a P/E multiple higher than the market and much higher than the average financial stock. The prospects for the worldwide growth of capitalism look great to me and the debt ratings business will follow accordingly. While you may not like the ratings they assigned to some sub-prime securities, do not bet against these guys. Write down today's closing price for MCO and come back in two years. My bet is you will be blown away.