正文
IQ vs EQ
Today I made much less than yesterday, plus a mistake at the end. Well, I learned from mistake and separated trading screens further away from each other, so I don’t make the same mistake any more. Likely the mistake only wiped out a small part of my trading profit. Got to pay for any learning.
Much have been talked about IQ or information query and processing in financial market, with theories such as “Random Walk Process” and “Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis-ECMH”.
If I understand correctly, “Random Walk Process”says the past and present information all have been processed by market participants effectively, and future information arrives at market randomly and therefore price in future is hard to predict.
And according to ECMH:
在第一类人，即靠所有的人都明白的公开信息操作的交易者中，信息传播的速度既快且广。证券的价格充分吸收了所有的大众性公开信息，其变动极为迅速、准确地反映了在此类人中所传播的信息的变动。这一机制最接近于有效资本市场假设理论所提出的弱式有效市场假设。由于这里的信息对于所有的人都是一样的，所以没有人会在这种市场上由于信息的占有而获取利润。
在第二类人，即靠专业性公开信息操作的交易者中，信息的来源仍为公开渠道，但信息的内容比第一类市场上的信息大大加深了一步。第一类人所不易看明白的大量信息，如财务报表中的多项数据、百分比的意义，会计报告注释部分的真实含义等，在第二类人中变成了常规信息。这些信息到了专业机构的分析人员手里，被迅速地转化为对股价变动趋势的判断而作用于市场，因此市场股价的变动会极为迅速、准确地反映出在这一类人中传播的信息的变动。在一个机构投资者占主导地位（不管是由于其资金量还是由于其在市场上的交易量）的市场上（如美、欧、日以及相当一些新兴的开放市场，如印度、泰国、墨西哥等），由于所有机构都大量使用专业研究人员，市场的有效性相当高。这时即使市场中同时有许多看不懂专业信息的普通投资者，但由于机构交易对股价的强大作用，这些普通投资者的盲目性并不会因此给机构投资人带来太大的利益，特别是在考虑到机构投资人因获取分析信息所付出的人力、物力成本后更是如此。第二类人所处的市场最接近有效资本市场假设理论中所设想的半强式有效市场。 (j4 's post)
If we call the first group retail market participants, and the second group professional, then we may have the following:
IQ or information query/processing, retail mostly followings professional, which is well known.
EQ or emotion as a force in decision making impacts both retail and professional.
EQ can also be called “emotional query”, which is really all what TA or traders try to pursue: query and find the weak points in market participants’ emotion, and profit from it.
Today, there is not much emotion running around, particularly after housing data’s release.
Supposedly, “the worst of the housing problem exists in the "new" home sales sector, not in sales of "existing" homes” (briefings.com), and that number comes on Monday. We will see how it goes.
Marketreflections.com
Today I made much less than yesterday, plus a mistake at the end. Well, I learned from mistake and separated trading screens further away from each other, so I don’t make the same mistake any more. Likely the mistake only wiped out a small part of my trading profit. Got to pay for any learning.
Much have been talked about IQ or information query and processing in financial market, with theories such as “Random Walk Process” and “Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis-ECMH”.
If I understand correctly, “Random Walk Process”says the past and present information all have been processed by market participants effectively, and future information arrives at market randomly and therefore price in future is hard to predict.
And according to ECMH:
在第一类人，即靠所有的人都明白的公开信息操作的交易者中，信息传播的速度既快且广。证券的价格充分吸收了所有的大众性公开信息，其变动极为迅速、准确地反映了在此类人中所传播的信息的变动。这一机制最接近于有效资本市场假设理论所提出的弱式有效市场假设。由于这里的信息对于所有的人都是一样的，所以没有人会在这种市场上由于信息的占有而获取利润。
在第二类人，即靠专业性公开信息操作的交易者中，信息的来源仍为公开渠道，但信息的内容比第一类市场上的信息大大加深了一步。第一类人所不易看明白的大量信息，如财务报表中的多项数据、百分比的意义，会计报告注释部分的真实含义等，在第二类人中变成了常规信息。这些信息到了专业机构的分析人员手里，被迅速地转化为对股价变动趋势的判断而作用于市场，因此市场股价的变动会极为迅速、准确地反映出在这一类人中传播的信息的变动。在一个机构投资者占主导地位（不管是由于其资金量还是由于其在市场上的交易量）的市场上（如美、欧、日以及相当一些新兴的开放市场，如印度、泰国、墨西哥等），由于所有机构都大量使用专业研究人员，市场的有效性相当高。这时即使市场中同时有许多看不懂专业信息的普通投资者，但由于机构交易对股价的强大作用，这些普通投资者的盲目性并不会因此给机构投资人带来太大的利益，特别是在考虑到机构投资人因获取分析信息所付出的人力、物力成本后更是如此。第二类人所处的市场最接近有效资本市场假设理论中所设想的半强式有效市场。 (j4 's post)
If we call the first group retail market participants, and the second group professional, then we may have the following:
IQ or information query/processing, retail mostly followings professional, which is well known.
EQ or emotion as a force in decision making impacts both retail and professional.
EQ can also be called “emotional query”, which is really all what TA or traders try to pursue: query and find the weak points in market participants’ emotion, and profit from it.
Today, there is not much emotion running around, particularly after housing data’s release.
Supposedly, “the worst of the housing problem exists in the "new" home sales sector, not in sales of "existing" homes” (briefings.com), and that number comes on Monday. We will see how it goes.
Marketreflections.com
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