there is more than a possibility of a major bear market in most assets.Oil may not fall below $70, but the rest of the economy should be in aneight year cycle down because of:

1. Credit bubble popped;
2. Real Estate bubble popped;
3. Consumer spending has lost its fuel due to 1 & 2;
4. Oil will remain expensive and tax consumers more;
4. Business will have to cut back;
5. The USD will not bounce back to over 100;
6. Asian countries will not keep buying US bonds due to #5;
7. Middle Eastern countries will find a new oil bench mark;
8. Interest rates (US) will go up in 2008 due to 6 & 7;
9. Unemployment will go up due to 4;
10. Demographics will make investors more conservative;
11. The recession has started...