正文
- Inflation: low, due to globalization, new tech and market reforms
- Liquidity: ample. Excess global savings will hold down bond yields and Fed will cut interest rate
- Debt: Debt Supercycle in not near end.
- Equity: beneficiary. Room for multiples to rise. Valuations are reasonable. Best opportunities might be in emerging markets and US.
- US equity: Prefer beneficiary of the capital spending cycle (instead of consumer spending). Overweight energy.
- Bond: not much opportunity
- Resources: bullish case for energy prices. Base metal prices are vulnerable. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate.
- Currency: US dollars has downside risks. Competitive devaluation- a key theme.
- US economy: mid-cycle slowdown. Housing downturn has further to run. Employment will grow. Corporate finance- strong.
- Risks: geopolitics & an end to yen carry trade. Deflationary risks would result liquidity being dumped into the system, fueling higher asset prices.
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