CYCLE OF CHANGE

While cars are rapidly outstripping bicycles in popularity, it may be premature to announce the demise of this once favored mode of transport

By ZHANG ZHIPING

While huge teams of bicyclists are no longer a common scene in China, long lines of cars can be seen everywhere. But does this mean that bicycles will cease to be a major mode of transport in the country?

Bicycles used to be the most important vehicle for ordinary Chinese people, and the frequent images of masses of cyclists gained China the nickname of the “Bicycle Kingdom.” However, bicycles are now being pushed aside by cars and expanding highways, and in some cities they are even blamed for traffic jams. It seems that bicycles are fated to be abandoned sooner or later.

Li Sen is a staff member at the Ministry of Construction, who came to Beijing 20 years ago. He said he could not recall when he last used his bicycle but he still remembered clearly that he spent his first salary on a bike, with which he was able to bike to the Tiananmen Square occasionally.

At the time, with few cars, Beijing’s streets were free of exhaust fumes and it was such a pleasure to travel by bike, he said.

But, since he bought a car five years ago, Li has totally given up his bicycle. In fact, even before he bought the car, he had already found it a hassle to ride a bicycle to work. Due to the rapid construction of the capital city, roadways are being made wider and wider while bicycle lanes are being squeezed. Besides, the air is much worse because of the exhaust gases.

The car fails to bring an end to Li’s annoying journey to work. Frequent traffic jams have become a big headache since he acquired a car.

Li’s experience is quite typical in many cities. Since the 1980s, the number of cars has increased along the quick pace of the urbanization. Statistics show that before the 1980s, China’s urbanization rate only stood at 19 percent, but now it has grown to 30 percent and is expected to rise to 50 percent by 2010.

China is now home to 60 million cars. The number is growing by 10 percent annually and is forecast to jump to 130 million by 2010. Beijing alone will see thousands of new cars every day.

The rapidly rising number of cars is in contrast to shrinking bicycle use. According to statistics from the Chinese Cycling Association, in 1998, there were 180 bicycles for every 100 households, a figure that has now dropped to 140.

Ten years ago, 60 percent of Beijing’s residents went to work by bike, while only 20 percent do so currently. Some even predict that bicycles are doomed to be replaced by cars, leading to the extinction of the “Bicycle Kingdom.”

Nevertheless, some believe that the access to more types of transportation does not necessarily mean that bicycles will be given up. An improved awareness of environmental protection and health will encourage some people to turn back to this noiseless, pollution-free vehicle that also helps to keep them physically fit. Furthermore, it’s still possible for bicycles to attract more and more young people with their fascination with extreme sports and other activities.

An irreplaceable vehicle?

The increasingly striking traffic problem in big cities is now a headache facing countries all over the world. This problem is even more serious in China, a developing country. Although private car ownership is still limited to a small number of people, the swelling populations in cities, outdated public transport systems and poor management have resulted in serious traffic problems and environmental pollution. In south China’s Guangzhou, cars account for 87 percent of carbon monoxide emissions and 67 percent of nitrogen dioxide emissions.

At present, apart from Beijing, such big cities as Shanghai, Wuhan, Xi’an and Guangzhou are also plagued by frequent traffic jams. In China’s megacities, the average speed of cars has dropped to 12 km per hour from 20 in the 1980s. Economic losses resulting from traffic jams have amounted to tens of millions of yuan.

The problem in China is that cars have become popular in heavily populated cities while traffic systems are still underdeveloped. China’s relatively abrupt opening to the world means that it has become easier for people to benefit from the modern transnational auto industry, although urban areas have not had time to adjust to this pattern.

In recent years, while the Chinese Government has attached great importance to the development of expressways, its input in urban traffic systems has been inadequate. And the underdevelopment of urban street networks is the major reason for the frequent traffic jams.

According to Li Jing, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, due to limited resources and space, it is not realistic for China to encourage private ownership of cars. A U.S. consulting company calculated that if in China there was a car for every 1.3 people, as in the United States, China would have 900 million cars, making up 40 percent of the world’s total, and they would consume 5 million tons of oil, or 20 percent of world oil output. Clearly, China is incapable of supplying so much energy.

In the United States, one third of the land in cities is allocated to roads and parking lots, but with a large population and extremely limited land area, it is impossible for China to contribute so much land to cars. A survey shows that the average life expectancy of people living in cities with little or no pollution is 26 percent longer than those in heavily polluted areas. Therefore, a clean environment also demands the restriction of private cars.

The European Car Free Day, launched in 2001, now involves nearly 800 European cities. In Germany, colorful bicycles create beautiful scenes in its cities and the German Government even offers special services to those who use bicycles.

But is it advisable for China to copy what Europe is doing? Bao Xiaowen, with Huazhong Normal University, believes that as non-polluting, low-cost and convenient vehicles, bicycles have an irreplaceable role in China’s urban traffic system. In most cities, 50-60 percent of the urban traffic still relies on bicycles.

A new emphasis

ALTERNATIVE OPTION: Against Beijing’s heavy traffic today, the bicycle proves to be more convenient for short-distance trip

People also are expected to use bicycles in various new ways. The Beijing Hanglun Cycling Club is dedicated to bicycle excursions and mountain bike events. It is composed of more than 200 teams, each with 20 to 50 bicycle fans. Apart from Beijing, Tianjin, Xiamen and Chengdu also have large-scale bicycle organizations.

Bicycles, which were once regarded as symbols of backwardness, are now again playing important roles.

A new bicycle lane in Shanghai’s Yangpu District, which cost the district 5 million yuan ($625,000), was opened on September 15, 2005. The lane is 2.2 meters to 2.4 meters wide and runs about 2 km. It is Shanghai’s first road built using epoxy resin, a non-skid surface that is expected to greatly reduce traffic accidents.

According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Urban Planning, in order to deal with traffic problems occurring in the process of urban development, experts and relevant departments have recently put forward certain ways to solve this problem in the old city of Beijing. The report stressed the importance of bicycles as an environmentally friendly vehicle.

After four years of debates, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Public Security announced that the ban on “electric,” or battery-operated, bicycles, instituted in 2002, was to be ended on January 4, 2006. This was viewed as evidence of a change in the municipal government’s “pro-car” policy, since the vehicle consistently has been a subject of dispute.

Those who oppose the vehicle argue that their batteries are hard to dispose of, while the vehicles’ rapid speed is a problem for the traffic police. Some local governments are concerned about the vehicles’ image, fearing that they would make cities seem outdated and backward. Thus, although 15 million people use them, bans on electric bicycles are still imposed around the country.

On the plus side is market demand. With China under pressure from pollution and energy shortages, the electric bicycle is a better choice than cars in terms of protecting the environment and saving energy. Moreover, used batteries from these bicycles are less harmful than exhaust from cars. And the relatively low price of electric bicycles puts them within the reach of ordinary Chinese people.

The Law on Traffic Road Safety, which came into force on May 1, 2004, granted the electric bicycle a legal identity--“non-motor car”--and stipulated that whether this vehicle is allowed to be registered and used is to be decided by local provincial, autonomous regional and municipal governments.

As the most influential action since the implementation of the law, the end of the ban on electric bicycles in Beijing may set an example for areas that still maintain the ban in the hope of protecting the environment.

走向消亡的自行车王国？

昔日滚滚的自行车流正在消失，取而代之的是汽车“长龙”。
自行车是否就此退出历史舞台？

张志萍

曾经，自行车是中国人的主要出行工具，浩浩荡荡的自行车大军成为了中国城市的一大独特景观，中国也因此有了自行车王国的称号。但是现在越来越多的汽车和为它们加宽的道路将自行车逼到了越来越窄的自行车道甚至是人行道上。在一些大中城市，交通越来越拥堵，自行车甚至还担着交通不畅的罪魁的恶名，自行车似乎正在被人们遗弃。

在国家建设部工作的李森已经不记得他最后一次骑自行车是什么时候了。20年前他大学毕业后来北京工作，一下火车就喜欢上了这个城市。他觉得那时候北京宽阔的街道如长安街宽阔得很有气势，狭窄的小巷如一些小胡同则狭窄得有人情味；许多建筑红墙绿瓦灰色的主体显得很气派；除了每年的春天要刮几天沙尘暴，黄沙弥漫，能见度极低，平常日子基本上都是空气清新，阳光灿烂。拿了第一个月的工资后他立即去买了一辆自行车，然后骑着它去天安门广场逛了一圈，当时正值秋季，是北京一年当中最好的季节，蓝天白云，秋高气爽，马路上车辆不多，也不存在尾气污染，骑车在北京的街道上，让他感到身心舒畅。在接下来的将近10年里，他搬过好几次住处，无论离工作的地方是远是近，北京最初留给他的美好印象让他一直保持着骑车上下班的习惯，最长的时候他需要骑40多分钟的路程。

5年前李森买了一辆汽车，彻底退出了骑车上班族。而在此之前其实他就已经不大骑车上班了，并不是因为他厌倦了骑车，而是他越来越觉得骑车在北京已不再是一个享受。随着城市建设步伐的加快，许多路都在拓宽，而自行车道却越变越窄，胡同里开始被停放的汽车塞满，变得行走困难；汽车越来越多，尾气也越来越多，加上工业污染，天高云淡的日子越来越少了，天空中经常被浓雾所笼罩，整个城市开始为每年能达到一定的“蓝天数”而努力。现在李森开车上下班，堵车成了他的一大烦心事。昔日滚滚的自行车洪流景观正在被汽车“长龙”所取代。李森感到了为难，他想回到过去，但是北京已不是当年的北京了。

李森的经历在一些大中城市里很有代表性。上个世纪八十代改革开放以来，中国城市化与汽车化发展十分迅猛。数据显示：改革开放前，城市化水平不足19%，目前已经发展到超过30%，预测2010年将接近50%；机动车拥有量目前已达6000万辆，并以每年10%以上的速度增长，预计2010年达到1.3亿多辆。

单单在北京，每天就有上千辆新汽车上路。而骑车人的数量却日益减少。据中国自行车协会统计，进入21世纪，中国城镇居民每百户自行车拥有量已从1998年的180多辆下降到了140多辆。如今，北京每天骑自行车往返于单位和家庭之间的人已从10多年前的60%下降到20%。

有专家说，这是因为城市的发展让人们出行的方式有了多种选择的结果。有人甚至预言，随着汽车以空前的速度增加，发动机命中注定是要胜过脚蹬子的，自行车王国正在走向消亡。

然而也有人不这么认为，交通方式的多元化并不意味着自行车将被中国人彻底抛弃，随着中国人环保、健身意识的增强，一部分人还会重新选择这种没有噪音、污染和健康的交通工具；另外，自行车的运动作用和自行车极限运动的独特魅力，都将吸引越来越多年轻人更加亲近自行车。

不可替代的交通工具

一项来自中国社会科学院工业经济研究所的研究报告表明，日益突出的大城市交通问题是当今世界各国所面临的共同难题。

尤其是像中国这样的发展中国家，尽管目前汽车的普及程度还不高，但由于大城市规模的迅速扩张，大量人口和产业活动集中在狭小的市中心区，加上城市公共交通严重滞后，交通管理不善，城市机动车迅速增长造成的交通拥挤和环境污染问题丝毫不逊于一些发达国家。

目前不仅在北京，目前，在中国上海、武汉、西安、广州等超大城市，交通堵塞现象已日趋白热化，成为影响城市经济发展的重要制约因素。中国特大城市市区机动车平均时速已由上世纪八十年代的20公里左右下降到现在的12公里左右。在一些大城市中心地区，机动车平均时速已下降到每小时8到10公里。中国每年因城市交通不畅，运输效率下降，造成经济损失达数百亿元。

广州市与交通有关的排放占一氧化碳总排放的87%和二氧化氮总排放的67%。据国际卫生组织1998年公布的调查报告显示，在全球空气污染最严重的10个城市中，中国就占了7个，包括太原、北京、乌鲁木齐、兰州、重庆、济南、石家庄。

从经济发展的环境看，中国的大城市在机动车化之前，就已形成了高人口密度的城市结构。同时，中国城市在改革开放后突然面对的是一个完全成熟的现代跨国汽车工业，城市居民超前享受着高技术带来的物质成果。这就意味着中国的城市将没有机会像伦敦、纽约、波士顿等城市那样，有一个相对较缓慢的城市交通系统与汽车工业技术相互适应与进化的过程，更不可能出现像洛杉矶那种专为轿车化社会而设计的城市。

尤其是，近年来中国一些大城市在旧城改造的过程中，往往突破规划控制指标，侵占城市绿地、广场，导致建筑与人口过度密集，市区人流、车流集中，从而加剧了城市交通拥挤和环境污染状况。

在投资政策方面，近年来中国政府特别重视高速公路的发展，而对城市道路系统的规划建设投入不足。城市道路数量严重不足，路网密度较低，这是导致大城市交通拥挤的重要原因之一。

中国工程院院士李京文认为，中国的客观资源与环境决定，私家车不能成为交通主流。

美国现在是1.3个人一辆汽车，一家美国咨询公司作了如此推算，如果按照美国的标准计算，那么中国国土上走的汽车将超过9亿辆，石油需求量将超过50亿吨，即汽车总量将超过目前世界总量的40%，石油消耗量将超过世界石油总产量的20%，中国没有这样的能源供应能力；

其次，在美国的大城市，一般要用1/3的城市土地用于修路及建造停车场，而中国是人多、可用地奇缺，土地不允许；

第三，据国外一项调查，城市污染少的地方人均寿命比污染严重的地方延长足足26%，从人性化角度考虑，环境不允许。

从2001年开始，欧盟每年都发起“欧洲无汽车日”活动，得到了欧洲约800个城市的响应。现在，在德国的任何一个城市，鲜艳的自行车道就像一条条彩带镶嵌在道路的两侧，德国政府甚至还为骑自行车的人提供了人性化的服务。

欧洲鼓励的自行车交通，中国是否能照搬？华东师大博士包晓雯认为，中国城市交通区别于国外的一个重要的特征就是大量的自行车交通，许多城市出行的比例达到了50%至60%。自行车作为一个无污染、低成本、方便灵活的一个交通工具，具有不可替代的作用。

自行车时代还会回来吗？

伴随着中国人对自行车的使用的全新认识，自行车还会以不同的方式回到人们的身边。

北京航轮自行车俱乐部是一家专门组织会员进行自行车集体郊游、山地车攀爬比赛、山地车速降比赛的俱乐部。负责人张荣秦介绍，这家俱乐部拥有200多支会员车队，每支队的人数从20人到50人不等，他们在体验自行车带给他们的全新乐趣。在北京以外的地方，天津、厦门、成都等地也都有规模很大的民间自行车运动组织。

最近，一些迹象也表明曾经一度被视为城市落后特征的自行车大军重新回到了管理者的视野之中。

　　2005年9月15日上海市杨浦区斥资500万元铺设的彩色道板的非机动车道正式启用。此条彩色非机动车道道宽2.2米～2.4米，全长近两公里。这是上海第一条采用环氧树脂技术的车道，此材料面薄、防滑、绿色，可有效降低交通事故的发生频率。

　　据北京市规划委称，针对城市发展进程中的交通问题，近期他们组织了有关交通专家和相关部门进行研究，提出了解决北京旧城交通问题的发展策略。这份研究报告提出，自行车交通方式仍然是城市交通中不可忽视的组成部分。由于自行车是一种环保型的交通方式，应给自行车交通方式保留适当的空间。

在经历了4年的争论之后，2006年年初，北京市公安局发布了一项命令宣布从1月4日起解除自2002年以来对电动自行车的禁令。这一举动被看成是政府“亲汽车政策”的改变。

电动自行车从诞生的那一天起，就被视为另类，备受怀疑和歧视。关于“禁”?还是“放”的争论就一直伴随着中国电动自行车发展的始终。

“放”的理由很充分，那就是市场需求。中国自行车协会贾刚说，中国面临着严峻的环保和能源紧张的压力，电动自行车无论是在节能还是环保方面都比目前的汽车更有优势。它使用的电池的危害也比汽车排放的尾气的危害要小得多。而且其相对经济的价格也符合当前中国居民的消费能力。

而“禁”的理由，电动自行车的电池很难进行处理，它的速度过快不便管理。另外对一味追求城市形象的一些地方政府来说，电动自行车意味着落后，汽车则代表着发展。

在全国有着1500多万人在骑电动自行车的情况下，还是不断有城市出台禁令。

2004年5月1日实施的《道路交通安全法》，赋予电动自行车一个明确的法律身份－“非机动车”，并规定，电动自行车能否登记上路，由各省、自治区、直辖市根据当地实际情况规定。北京市的“解禁”，是该法实施后影响力最大的一次实验，也受到了最多的关注。也许此举能还在实行禁令的地方起到一个环保的示范作用。