2006/08/31 看盘笔记

指数继续强势调整

各主要大盘股压制住指数。
如果明天MSFT突破$26.10,INTC收在$19.84组成突破线上多方炮，下周可乐观地看涨。
SP100在年高附近强势调整，期待领涨SP500。

目前策略：
买股或short put.
Happy trading and happy long weekend.

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大盘股都在打压指数。
现在我没考虑止损的问题。
如果指数跌了，会接着买进。
然后若指数不好，再考虑止损的问题。
目前的强势调整不是大盘股支撑的，所以我认为盘势的确很强。
这种调整走势能写出啥及格的东西？
5分钟图上几个领涨股在指数稍有突破时就同时下调。
所以只能说是主力不想突破。
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目前SPX的形态很unique

没有历史相似的可循。

比较类似的是今年三月的走势。今年三月的走势基本都在1295以上的突破线上调整。这次都在1290（或1280）的突破线上调整。这次调整的振幅很小。

10天前short SPX call或5天前short SPX put，到今天都是基本平盘。反过来说10天前buy SPX call或5天前buy SPX put基本是一个小赔的状态。目前的成交量小，大家都在观望。

若向上突破，会放量。

若向下突破，不一定会放量。跌到1290才可能放量。1290是强支撑和20日均线。
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有历史相似的可循
typically, summer rally end near labor day. mkt made short term top near the end of August many many times.

don't trust recent rally too much. mms can easily manipulate the index with so thin volume by upgrade intc, amd....lift csco aapl... smh/naz are very overbot in short term, naz may test 2150 (between 10,20ema) soon..
many strong stocks went back to previous high, many gapdown stocks filled the gap, recent earnings in tech such as cien adct ltxx jdsu... are horrible. so....
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What I am noticing/thinking is, the market would have broken out had JPM/C/BAC/MSFT/GE broken out. Whenever indice reached a good point ready to break out, these stocks went down simultaneously and hence the indice became absolute flat.

I agree that September is one of the worst in history. Well, May is one of the best. But we got a big down the passed May.

So I would stick to the trend reading. I personally don't trust this strong market that much, o/w I would have bought calls.
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我看熊的标准

SPX/NDX->1285/1540

同时：

MSFT->$25-
INTC->$19
GE->$33.50-
JPM->$44-
C->48.50-
PFE->$27-
PG->$60.50-

不一定全部符合，但大部分符合。
个人信条从不试图放空在最高点。

现在手持强势股等待。若突破则加码。