10年
(2007-02-05 22:44:04)
下一个
interest rate: 与历史上过去10年中,96年/98年与现在的情况相似.
GDP: 2006年的GDP大约是96年GDP的5倍,国防开支和民用预算也大致相似,但贸易赤字却是当年的24倍。(已扣除inflation的因素)。
Corporate profits: 2006年的CP大约是96年的7倍,和GDP的范围相差不太远.
Unemployment: employment/unemployment rate decreases from 5.9(1996) to 4.5(2006Nov), however, the total labor force increases 1.1倍.
M3/M2/M1: M2增加了1。82倍,M1增加了1。26倍,已消逝的M3估计也有2。5倍
Taking all the factors into account, SP500 was about 500-700 at 1996, now SP500 is about 1446, 大约也有两倍了.well, that is why I think the equity market will has a good future in long term (in the unit of year/decade), because it is just barely showing the economic picture right now, not in a bubble way at all.
However, the short term (in the unit of week/month) picture of equity market is playing totally different from the long term way, it comes up and down over and over, but that is why the life is beautiful and full of fun, right?:)街上那些分析师这样拽一篇,再beef up一些nonsense,就能上报啦.